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The timing of firing [Redacted]

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wakedeac98

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Apologize in advance for yet another [Redacted] thread.

Nearly everyone is in agreement that [Redacted] will eventually be fired. So the question becomes "when?". The answer to that is something I've been thinking about a lot over the course of this weekend. After much thought, I sincerely believe that there is a huge difference in firing him now vs. next year.

IMO now is the perfect time to do it. As big of a train wreck and dumpster fire that our program is right now, I think as of March 2012 Wake Forest is a whole lot more attractive of a job than it will be in March 2013.

1) There are only 4 current scholarship players on the roster. It would be easier to implement a new system and transition to a new style.
2) 2 of the 4 scholarship players are not only the best players on the team, but they are the two leaders. And they would be a senior and a junior.
3) The 6 man incoming freshman class is at a minimum solid and promising.
4) There are 4 available scholarships for next years class. Very attractive for a new coach trying to build.
5) The ACC as a whole will not be that much better than this year. Immediate chance for improvement.
6) Wake Forest would at least be on par if not better than the top schools looking for coaches this season. Illinios, South Carolina, Nebraska, Kansas State.
7) It would revive a fan base that is already pushed to the limit and at the point of complete rebellion.

If we wait until March 2013 to fire Buzz, I don't think the Wake job is nearly as attractive.

1) There would be up to 10 scholarship players, making it more difficult to change the system.
2) CJ will be gone. Travis may be gone as well if we don't make a change now. There would be no upper class leadership on the team.
3) How many of the new freshman will want to transfer to get away from [Redacted]?
4) [Redacted] will recruit the 4-5 scholarships that are open (depending if Travis leaves). The players he will bring in will likely not be as good as whoever the new coach would have got. They will also not necessarily be the new coaches type of players of fit into is system well. There will also be only 0-1 scholarships open for the following year. Not much opportunity for a new coach to get his players.
5) The ACC will have to be better. Maryland, UVA, NCState are all on the rise. BC and GaTech will have to improve because they can't get any worse. It will be harder for a new coach to feel like he can win right away.
6) Who knows what will happen with other schools next year. There could be 2 or 3 jobs that open that are clearly better than Wake, leaving us lower on the totem pole for getting a new coach.
7) The fan base will be one year more advanced in their rage. This means a lot more dollars lost.


I just don't see why waiting a year to fire [Redacted] makes sense on any level. It seems like our job is MUCH more attractive now than it would be next year at this time. Does anyone else have thoughts on this? Is there something I'm not seeing or haven't considered?
 
Yeah I don't see how waiting through another year of discontent and on-court suckitude doesn't outweigh the possible public perceptions that would come from a quick fire.

I hope that made sense. Basically I.agree with the op.
 
My two biggest concerns about keeping him another year are the current players and the recruits bzz brings in. I am not confident he will get good talent to play for him and I am worried he will bring in anyone he can this year to fill out a roster. He must know he is dead man coaching so he goes all in next year.
 
Very good analysis. I think somewhere in the first part you should say something to the effect that doing it this year can "initiate the financial recovery, probably in a very substantial way." Also, I am not sure - "revive" or "restore hope"...
 
Great post, wakedeac98.
 
Great post except since when is Kansas State looking for a new coach? Did I miss something with Martin getting fired?
 
Agree 100%. The reason that Bz stays is not your list. It's money.

Money is the motivating force behind almost every WF athletic department decision.

WF is not flush with cash. It is still paying Dino (or just finished the buyout). It is obligated to pay Bz for at least 2 or 3 more years. Wellman has called in all his chits to pay for facility upgrades and current coaches salaries. There are no available funds to pay another coach $1 million+ a year on top of WF's present financial obligations. Another year of Bz means one less year that needs to be bought out. Really believe that is the only reason that Bz is still WF's coach. If a benefactor came to Wellman and said that he would pay the bill to dump Bzz and hire another coach, I think the decision would have already been made.

FWIW, on top of all the other bad reasoning that led to the Bz hire in 2010, money also played a role in that decision. Compared to other high level D-1 coaches, Bz was getting paid much at Colorado; so, WF saved $$$ hiring Bz as compared to most ACC coaches. Pretty safe bet that Bz is the lowest paid or at least in the bottom 2 among ACC coaches. By hiring a coach that killed the program, obvious that the decision to go cheap and old was penny-wise and pound -foolish, and it appears that reasoning is costing WF again.
 
I just don't agree. I think Ron legitimately thinks Bz is the man for the job. The big transfer thread has some insight from.earlier today on this (cannot recall which poster).

We need to hope Dino gets hired by Duquesne or someone else.

Do agree with the penny wise pound foolish idea however.
 
great post. I feel the exact same way. Let's get a jump start on a rebuild.
 
Agree as well. One question for Pilchard: how does the school justify what it pays Grobe? Does the enhanced level of success he has brought bring account for that much more revenue?

I also like the look of the programs we would have to compete with. Other than Illinois, I don't see the others as our equal in terms of basketball historically (i.e. - before 2 years ago). We could definitely get a good mid-major coach.

Someone get Chris Paul or Tim Duncan to chip in a few million to get John Groce on board. Please.
 
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deacz said:
Agree as well. One question for Pilchard: how does the school justify what it pays Grobe? Does the enhanced level of success he has brought bring account for that much more revenue?

I also like the look of the programs we would have to compete with. Other than Illinois, I don't see the others as our equal in terms of basketball historically (i.e. - before 2 years ago). We could definitely get a good mid-major coach.

Someone get Chris Paul or Tim Duncan to chip in a few million to get John Groce on board. Please.
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Money isn't the issue.
 
wakedeac98 said:
6) Wake Forest would at least be on par if not better than the top schools looking for coaches this season. Illinios, South Carolina, Nebraska, Kansas State.
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Nebraska and South Carolina yes. Kansas State maaaybe. You are delusional though if you think we are on par with or better than Illinois's program. Illinois is easily a top 20 program whereas we are lucky if people right now would even put us in the top 30/35. They have more money, a better recruiting base(Chicago), and way more fans.

You are overlooking how bad firing [Redacted] would look. I 100% support firing him but I accept the fact we will not be able to get a big name(wont be able to get Shaka and Groce sorry). If memory serves me correctly(could easily be wrong) I remember some people attributing our difficulty in obtaining a big name last go around was because we fired Gaudio after having a good regular season and making the 2nd round of the tournament. It made us look impatient/unreasonable and as a result it would put too much pressure on any new coach. If we fire [Redacted] after two years, we are going to look WAY worse.

I also don't believe that us only having 4 players and 6 incoming freshmen will be deemed as positive by any prospective coaches, ESPECIALLY considering [Redacted] also inherited a so called good class when he came in only to see it implode on him. Coaches are very short term thinkers. They want to win now. If they are at a decent program that is likely to compete for the NCAA tournament for the next couple years, why would they want to rebuild a sinking program that might not be able to compete in the tournament for 2-3 years? I don't see it.

Also, you say the fact that we have a 6 man freshmen class is a positive for a new coach, but then you also say having 10 scholarship players in a year will be a big negative for any new coach..wouldn't he have 10 scholarships if he were to take the job tomorrow?

So yeah I completely disagree with your argument. I think we will look way better next year than we will this year, especially if this class lives up to the hype. We gave [Redacted] 3 years to show us something, he didn't and as a result we look more reasonable. The coach will have a solid nucleus of sophomores and Mckie that might be able to bring us to the tournament. And won't we have more money to give the new coach because of a new TV deal?
 
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Hodge05 said:
Nebraska and South Carolina yes. Kansas State maaaybe. You are delusional though if you think we are on par with or better than Illinois's program. Illinois is easily a top 20 program whereas we are lucky if people right now would even put us in the top 30/35. They have more money, a better recruiting base(Chicago), and way more fans.

You are overlooking how bad firing [Redacted] would look. I 100% support firing him but I accept the fact we will not be able to get a big name(wont be able to get Shaka and Groce sorry). If memory serves me correctly(could easily be wrong) I remember some people attributing our difficulty in obtaining a big name last go around was because we fired Gaudio after having a good regular season and making the 2nd round of the tournament. It made us look impatient/unreasonable and as a result it would put too much pressure on any new coach. If we fire [Redacted] after two years, we are going to look WAY worse.

I also don't believe that us only having 4 players and 6 incoming freshmen will be deemed as positive by any prospective coaches, ESPECIALLY considering [Redacted] also inherited a so called good class when he came in only to see it implode on him. Coaches are also very short term thinkers. They want to win now. If they are at a decent program that is likely to compete for the NCAA tournament for the next couple years, why would they want to rebuild a sinking program that might not be able to compete in the tournament for 2-3 years? I don't see it.

Also, you say the fact that we have a 6 man freshmen class is a positive for a new coach, but then you also say having 10 scholarship players in a year will be a big negative for any new coach..wouldn't he have 10 scholarships if he were to take the job tomorrow?

So yeah I completely disagree with your argument. I think we will look way better next year than we will this year, especially if this class lives up to the hype. We gave [Redacted] 3 years to show us something, he didn't and as a result we look more reasonable. The coach will have a solid nucleus of sophomores and Mckie that might be able to bring us to the tournament. And won't we have more money to give the new coach because of a new TV deal?
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Of course you want us to keep Bz Julius.
 
DirkTheDeac said:
We might have. Now there is no way.
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We look bad either way, just less so next year. A year from now(assuming no other departures and the freshmen performing ok which admittedly is not guaranteed given Bzzz) is one year removed from this shitshow and one year closer to a new coach being able to turn around this program. While this upcoming year will likely be a mess, even the most ardent Buzzouter has to admit we should be in a better place next year for the simple reason that our program can not possibly sink any lower than right now.
 
Hodge05 said:
We look bad either way, just less so next year. A year from now(assuming no other departures and the freshmen performing ok which admittedly is not guaranteed given Bzzz) is one year removed from this shitshow and one year closer to a new coach being able to turn around this program. While this upcoming year will likely be a mess, even the most ardent Buzzouter has to admit we should be in a better place next year for the simple reason that our program can not possibly sink any lower than right now.
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We can sink lower. We have four returning scholarship players and a good incoming freshman class. The only so called "sure thing" is CMM. They are freshmen. There is no way to predict how they react to what they are coming into. Enthusiastic? Sure. Effective? Who knows? It is entirely possible without the contributions of the transfers that we take a step back. If you want to buy into Bzz's "we're already deeper" nonsense be my guest.
 
DirkTheDeac said:
We can sink lower. We have four returning scholarship players and a good incoming freshman class. The only so called "sure thing" is CMM. They are freshmen. There is no way to predict how they react to what they are coming into. Enthusiastic? Sure. Effective? Who knows? It is entirely possible without the contributions of the transfers that we take a step back. If you want to buy into Bzz's "we're already deeper" nonsense be my guest.
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No of course we are not deeper. We are in terrible shape right now which is my point. No halfway decent coach will want to come here when we are a complete mess and years from competing. Next year will be miserable but because we are not losing anyone except for Harris and will have 6 freshmen with a year under their belts, we should be a year closer to competing with a competent coach.

I am NOT in favor of keeping [Redacted]. I want the dude gone. I am simply arguing that from a prospective coach's perspective, we would be FAR more appealing next year than right now. Not really sure how that is debatable. We are at one of the lowest points in Wake Forest Basketball history, we have fired a coach after a cpl successful years and then a 2nd round exit in the tournament and then fired the next guy after only two years. If you are a college coach on the rise(Groce), why would you come here? You have just had a cpl solid tournaments. Great job security. Would you really want to come to a program that you are going to have to rebuild and that is at LEAST 2 years away from the tournament?
 
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