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Ukraine is on the border of Russia, has historically been closely connected to Russia, and a vital national interest for the Russians. Save for the border, none of that is true for NATO or the US. Furthermore, it would be more than a little disadvantageous for NATO and the US to try to fight the Russian army in Ukraine.
So, will Putin invade Ukraine? Probably not.
So, what's he up to?
He wants to expose cracks within NATO and dramatize for the Ukrainians that when push comes to shove the US will not protect Ukraine and may cause a mess for Europe's crucially important gas supplies.
Putin wants NATO and the West to agree with Russia that Ukraine will not be a member of NATO (which Europe does not want anyway). He wants acceptance of Russia's annexation of Crimea and southeastern Ukraine, and he does not want certain threatening weapons in Ukraine or in states bordering Russia.
He wants a deal now, while Biden is weak and has a demonstrated record of being a consistent foreign policy loser. Maybe the US can be split from the rest of NATO on some issues. He probably can't get everything that he wants but he may be able to get some of it and at the same time expose US and NATO differences and weaknesses. This is a very dangerous game. But Ukraine is a vital interest to Russia, and the US leadership is weak and poor.
You won't get much disagreement on the Biden admin looking weak and inviting being tested here. However you really need to look back at Trump's efforts to create those cracks within NATO.
I wish you had more posts like this.