THE DEFENSE
I’ve been giving some thought to what would need to happen for the Deacs to get to six wins this season. Not from the perspective of what games on the schedule would they need to win, but what would need to happen to be a better football team. To that end, I decided to take a look back and a look forward at the defense.
LAST YEAR
I see some mentions every now and again about Wake having a “Top 40” defense last season. That doesn’t match with what I saw or the field. Statistically, the results are mixed. Wake did rank #36 in the country in total defense (measured by fewest yards from scrimmage), but more advanced defensive efficiency ratings put Wake much lower (75th according to ESPN and 77th according to Football Outsiders).
What I saw on the field last season was a largely ineffective DL and some weak links in the defensive secondary. The defense was largely held together by solid play from the linebackers. I wish I had a stat for “tackle efficiency” (meaning tackles divided by tackle opportunities) to see how our linebacking corps would have compared to others around the country. I think they were excellent.
Outside of Brandon Chubb, Marquel Lee, Duke Ejiofor and Brad Watson, the defense lacked impact players and impact plays (and remember that Ejiofor missed the start of the season). To make matters worse, the defense sprung 2 very obvious leaks when big plays were repeatedly surrendered by post-grad transfers Devin Gaulden and Zach Dancel. True freshman Dionte Austin was able to stabilize Gaulden’s corner position midway through the season, however Dancel’s safety position remained an issue.
I remain a fan of the 4-2-5 defense, but I think there are misperceptions about how much havoc it has been able to create. Pass pressure and blitz effectiveness were not strong points last year. To be clear though, that’s not a criticism of the system or staff. The 4-2-5 defense puts Wake in the best position to defend against spread teams (notably, to the staff’s credit the defense was able to make the necessary adjustments against heavy run-oriented teams like Boston College and Army that would be viewed as kryptonite for most 4-2-5 teams). Instead, I think the pass pressure and blitz issues were more about the personnel on the field than the scheme or coaching.
I would analogize Wake’s defense last year to a flyball pitcher with a solid mix of pitches but a low strikeout rate and a penchant for giving up the longball. What Wake did best was prevent a lot of long, sustained drives. When Wake didn’t give up a big play, they typically got off the field quickly (36th in the country on third downs). But big plays seemed to come all to often.
So what does Wake need to do to improve on defense this year? Here’s my Top 4:
#1 THE DEFENSIVE LINE NEEDS TO BE MORE DISRUPTIVE
Last year I monitored the defensive stats closely. The production from the defensive line? Well, let’s just say that it wasn’t good. That lined up with what I was seeing on the field. RBs came through our DL with a full head of steam (making life more difficult for the LBs and safeties like Dancel) and QBs were given plenty of time to throw. The 4-2-5 puts six players in the box on most plays – four DLs and two LBs. If your four DLs simply get swallowed up by the OL and don’t disrupt the play then that seems like it would be a problem (and I think it was).
For purposes of this discussion, I came up with a stat that I call “disruptive plays”. It’s the sum total of sacks, other tackles for loss, QB hurries and pass blocks. Remarkably, the entire defensive line managed just 38 disruptive plays last season (basically an average of three per game). To be fair, the defensive line did improve on this stat as the season progress. Through the first six games last season (**note that I excluded the Elon game from all stats**), the DL had only 15.5 disruptive plays. That increased to 22.5 disruptive plays over the last five games, due mostly to the return of Duke Ejiofor (6.5 disruptive plays) and improved play from Tylor Harris (3.5 disruptive plays). Improved, but still not good.
The worst stat was QB hurries where the entire defensive line managed just one more hurry (seven) than Brandon Chubb had by himself (six).
So could we see improvement this year? Possibly. Duke Ejiofor has pass rush ability that no other DL on the field had last year, however I think he is capable of much more this year. I’d like to see Ejiofor double the number of impact plays on a per game basis. However, what is needed most desperately is an effective pass rusher (or pass rushers) opposite Ejiofor. Wendell Dunn has registered just 1.5 sacks in 1,186 career snaps. I think there is a big opening for someone like Chris Calhoun (who flashed high-end athleticism last year and comes into this season with over 300 snaps of experience under his belt) or Paris Black (who had a very impressive spring and made me a believer). Or maybe we see highly-touted 2014 recruit Rashawn Shaw come into his own. There are lots of candidates, but at least one (and probably two) needs to take a BIG step forward this season if we want to sniff six wins.
#2 CREATE MORE TURNOVERS
Wake ranked almost dead last (121st in the country) at creating turnovers last season. Clearly that has to improve.
#3 A SECOND-YEAR PLAYER NEEDS TO EMERGE AS AN IMPACT PLAYER
I mentioned above that Wake had only 4 impact players last season (Chubb, Lee, Watson and Ejiofor). There were stretches where you could have argued that Zeek Rodney was a fifth – but he’s obviously gone for the year. Someone else needs to emerge this year. Clawson has said that players take their biggest jump from their first year on the field to their second. Duke Ejiofor certainly made that jump from Year 1 to Year 2. Candidates this year include Demetrius Kemp (338 snaps last season), Cameron Glenn, Jaboree Williams (technically a third year player but only a little over 300 career snaps), Dionte Austin (555 snaps last season), and Chris Calhoun (300+ snaps last season).
#4 MORE IMPACT PLAYS FROM THE ROVER POSITION
When I first learned the basics of the 4-2-5 my first reaction was that the Rover could be the star of the defense. A hybrid DB/LB that starts most plays close to the QB, close to the line of scrimmage, and with a direct line of sight into the backfield. With safety help behind him, I figured this spot would be a weapon that would wreak havoc in the opposing backfield. A real difference-maker. To date that hasn’t really happened. Hunter Williams was a steady, reliable tackler. But a difference-maker? A weapon?
The hope is that one (or both) of second-year Demetrius Kemp and converted safety Thomas Brown can have more big play impact from the position this season.