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Wake Ken Pom Thread: 2014-15 Preaseason = 104, Currently = 125 Season Over

Bad news guys, KenPom touched up his formula and applied it retroactively. Wake dropped a few spots for the 2011 season to 271st. He changed it a bit so that wins by 35 and 60 points aren't drastically different, whereas before the 25 point margin would give a bigger boost to the team. Beating Grambling by 35 or 60 isn't really an indicator one way or the other of being vastly better was his reasoning. He found it decreased the margin of error on games in February and March by around 1 percent.

I'm guessing Wake's big win over Marist was some of the cause of the drop. New rankings:

2011: 271st
2012: 217th
2013: 134th
 
I was really excited about our 251 finish. Now I can't claim to all my friends that we were one of the best 255 teams in the country. I need new talking points.
 
Based on historical data we can expect the following:

Greg McClinton: Offensive Rating 97.2

Miles Overton: Offensive Rating 95.0
 
Those would both be better than CMM's year last year. I'm sluggish on those predictions. McClinton will be small sample size so it will be tough to tell if this is accurate for a full season, but I would be pretty impressed if Overton performs better this year than CMM did last year. I suspect that usage rate will be low for both though.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Those would both be better than CMM's year last year. I'm sluggish on those predictions. McClinton will be small sample size so it will be tough to tell if this is accurate for a full season, but I would be pretty impressed if Overton performs better this year than CMM did last year. I suspect that usage rate will be low for both though.
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Yeah, usage rate will play a big factor. Also, Overton is theoretically a 3 point shooter, so he has an advantage in o rating.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Bad news guys, KenPom touched up his formula and applied it retroactively. Wake dropped a few spots for the 2011 season to 271st. He changed it a bit so that wins by 35 and 60 points aren't drastically different, whereas before the 25 point margin would give a bigger boost to the team. Beating Grambling by 35 or 60 isn't really an indicator one way or the other of being vastly better was his reasoning. He found it decreased the margin of error on games in February and March by around 1 percent.

I'm guessing Wake's big win over Marist was some of the cause of the drop. New rankings:

2011: 271st
2012: 217th
2013: 134th
Click to expand...


Queue RJ incoherently rambling about how changing a formula to make it more accurate is cheating.
 
For the KenPom boys, what is the probability that a team with a preseason KP ranking of 134 makes the NCAA tourney? Or even the NIT?
 
woody9186 said:
For the KenPom boys, what is the probability that a team with a preseason KP ranking of 134 makes the NCAA tourney? Or even the NIT?
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Tough to say since the NIT/NCAA Tournament use different criteria of determining the most qualified teams.

All of these records will be the records prior to the NIT/NCAA Tournament. Regular season conference record in parentheses.

-#107 St. John's 16-15 (8-10) Made NIT, lost 1st game of Big East Tournament vs. Villanova
-#121 Florida St. 18-15 (9-9) Made NIT, won 1st game of ACC Tournament vs. Clemson
-#128 Charlotte 21-11 (8-8) Made NIT, won 1st game of A10 Tournament vs. Richmond

Those were the notable teams around our area that made the NIT. Other teams were ranked lower in KenPom, but were the regular season conference champions of their respective conferences. Most of the BCS conference teams who made the NIT appeared to be in the 60-80 range. So it seems like we'd have to go at least 7-11 in conference play to make the NIT.
 
deacvision7 said:
Top 135! We back.
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Stupid fucking Scouse child. All that ahead of him is a life of hubcap stealing and unemployment.
 
Also it's important to note that the 134 is the finish spot from last year, not the preseason rank for next year.
 
Wake ranked 91st in KenPom for the preseason. Of course all the normal caveats apply since there have been no games played yet this year. Review the first few pages of the thread for an extensive discussion. This year's ranking for Wake should be a little bit closer than last year's for a couple of reasons, predominantly because we don't have any freshmen who we are expecting to contribute a lot of the statistics like we had last year (with so many freshmen). This will make the ratings more accurate since players outside the top 50 or 100 in the RSCI aren't counted.

Ranked 12th in the ACC out of 15, ahead of Virginia Tech, FSU, and Clemson. The ACC has 7 teams in the top 37 spots including BC at 37.
 
Without the two additional Atlantis games included we're projected to go 15-14 (6-12). While we knew the OOC schedule would be a joke, it's just laughable.

Ranks of the first five teams we play: 306, 280, 337, 267, 342. The lowest chance we have of winning one individual game there is 90%.
 
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