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NC State at Wake Forest (+5), O/U 147

Fuck Your Couch

Fuck Your Couch

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Opening line. Unsurprising spread IMO, O/U looks high at first blush.
 
Thought O/U would drop a little bit to 144 and I would take the over.

This is much tougher than the Maryland game prediction-wise
 
After seeing us almost pull it out on the road against Maryland (with a poor shooting night), I like the Deacs in this one.
 
the most important factor is whether or not jamie lucky will be calling the game. if he is, state is toast.
 
Nah...not an issue because he hates us too.

Maybe we'll all be screwed and get the trifecta of Jamie Unlucky, Mike DumbAsWood, and Karl HessHisHeart
 
Figured the line would be within 1-2 points of a pickem with State losing at home to GT
 
How has the home crowd been this season?
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
I'm convinced they check Sagarin and KenPom.

7 points on Sagarin
4 on KenPom

Line is 5
Click to expand...

Not everybody sucks KenPom's dick like you do. Vegas bookmakers have a lot more on the line than KenPom. They don't need a stat geek to tell them where the line should be.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
....Vegas bookmakers have a lot more on the line than KenPom. They don't need a stat geek to tell them where the line should be.
Click to expand...

Umm. Not a bettor, but don't they just place the line, and move it, to attract even bets to both sides? Their goal is for the money paid to balance out and they just take their sure percentage? Just asking.
 
Vegas is more complicated (and smarter) than just doing some calculation on getting even money on every spread. They do take opening spreads very seriously as a reflection of team strength because there are people who make a living betting big on them being wrong. But very often there is lopsided public action on one side of a spread when there is a divergence between public opinion and sharp opinion. For example this weekend, lots of public money is going on the Saints, like 80% of all bets. Vegas will lose money on that specific bet if the Saints cover. But sharps and Vegas like the Niners to cover. In the long run they abuse the general betting public on scenarios like that. Very common instances of this occurring are people betting on road favorites (see above) and people betting the over too often.
 
tomorrow will be my first game of the season. pumped.
 
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