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DNC Live Commentary

Romney got virtually no bounce from Ryan or his convention. He needed to move past Obama because Obama will get a lead leaving Charlotte that he will hold.
 
SkinsNDeacs said:
Chuck Todd keeps saying things like with no proof. He is an insider and he has his sources but listening to him the last couple of weeks you would think that Romney is only campaigning in Texas, Alabama, Mississippi and Arkansas. I am not saying he is wrong but he is basically saying that Romney has given up even while every poll in America shows him gaining ground.
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With no discernible bounce following the RNC, the writing is on the wall for that campaign. And I have no inside sources, just a brain that works.
 
Romney hasn't given up but Obama is the stronger candidate and he has the better message and campaign.
 
It's the smallest convention bounce since either Mondale or McGovern.

Plus it's not about the overall vote, it's about EVs. Obama has lost a lot of ground in states he isn't going to win anyway. It will take a huge switch for Romney to get enough EVs to win this election.
 
RJKarl said:
It's the smallest convention bounce since either Mondale or McGovern.

Plus it's not about the overall vote, it's about EVs. Obama has lost a lot of ground in states he isn't going to win anyway. It will take a huge switch for Romney to get enough EVs to win this election.
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EV's are extremely overrated. With all due respect to Gore if you win the popular vote there is a 99.99% chance you will win the election.
 
The reality is Obama is projected to win OH and FL by the person who was the most accurate in the past two elections. Romney has to win both to have a prayer.

After Bill gives his speech and goes to FL, Obama will open a lead there. Not to mention having Crist on his side.

You can make a lot of money betting on Romney. If you believe he's going to win, you should do it.

BTW, EVs are so overrated that you can't become POTUS without them.
 
SkinsNDeacs said:
EV's are extremely overrated. With all due respect to Gore if you win the popular vote there is a 99.99% chance you will win the election.
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EVs are how you win the election.

The fact is that we have had 2 popular vote candidates lose the election. When you take out all of the landslide elections, and just focus on the elections that we close in popular vote, the percentage is much much less than 99.99%.
 
deaclite said:
Saw a late interview with Chuck Todd and Ted Strickland. Chuck said way things were looking in Ohio that the Romney camp is having to consider how to win the election without Ohio. If that is the case, Romney is in deep trouble.
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Romney's problem with Ohio & Michigan will be his let Detroit die op-ed. Obama will put that on the air all day in those 2 states. That's why, regardless of what the polls say now, Romney will have problems in both of those states.

And Romney got some bad news in Virginia yesterday. Virgil Goode, my former congressman and serious idiot, has qualified for the Virginia ballot with twice as many signatures as he needed - he's running for Prez on the Constitutional ticket. He was pretty popular among rednecks in the central and western part of the state, and I wouldn't be surprised if he got more votes in Virginia than Gary Johnson. If he gets 1-3% of the vote here, that's really gonna hurt Romney. I can envision a scenario where Obama wins by 2% and Kaine loses to Jethro Macaca Allen by 1%, though I hope Allen doesn't get back in there.
 
ChrisL68 said:
EVs are how you win the election.

The fact is that we have had 2 popular vote candidates lose the election. When you take out all of the landslide elections, and just focus on the elections that we close in popular vote, the percentage is much much less than 99.99%.
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Samuel Tilden and Andrew Jackson also say hi and drive down that %.
 
SkinsNDeacs said:
RCP Average shows a fairly decent bounce

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

But polls at this point are still a little premature. Point being, it is tight race no matter who you listen to. There is absolutely no way Romney has given up.
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Looks like a 2 point bounce. That's nothing following a convention historically speaking.


SkinsNDeacs said:
EV's are extremely overrated. With all due respect to Gore if you win the popular vote there is a 99.99% chance you will win the election.
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Oh dear.
 
DeacMan said:
There has been quite a bit of talk about how Romney could win the popular vote and lose the election simply because he is going to win in a huge landslide in many of the red states.
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There is always talk like that but in reality it rarely happens. Basically...whoever wins the popular vote will win the election. If anyone wants to place a bet on it I will take any bet.
 
I think Obama wins both the popular vote and EC. So no action coming from me.
 
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