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Crossroads, AFP shutting it down in Michigan

DeaconSig said:
This thread has all sorts of win from dirk. http://www.ogboards.com/forums/showthread.php?2541-Mitt-Romney-job-creator-NOT-amp-On-Rush-s-shit-list&highlight=DirktheDeac

He knew back then that his boy was a loser, but he's keeping hope alive anyways. As a Wake fan, you have to support that. Only surprising thing is that he isn't a Coach [Redacted] supporter as well.
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That was before he chose Ryan. I've had a change of heart. We are dragging him toward conservatism. It's not that complicated.
 
Keep dragging. And I appreciate your ability to lie to yourself. I did the same thing in '00 and '04.
 
DeaconSig said:
Keep dragging. And I appreciate your ability to lie to yourself. I did the same thing in '00 and '04.
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I voted for Clinton twice. So, there you have it. We are headed in different directions, which is fine. Vote your heart.
 
DirkTheDeac said:
I voted for Clinton twice. So, there you have it. We are headed in different directions, which is fine. Vote your heart.
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I know you voted for Clinton twice. And I'm not voting my heart. I'm voting as much against your fellow Michiganite (?) as I am for the President. But like I said, I feel for you. It sucks voting for somebody merely because you are scared shitless of what will happen to the country over the next 4 years if the other guy wins. But I promise, it will work out. The President isn't the devil you think he is. And the next 4 years are just going to be gridlock anyways.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Are there Really that many undecideds in any battleground state? I have to figure the number at less than 1 to 2% if even that much. Can you imagine spending 100 mil or more chasing something that small?
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It's more and more clear that big donors aren't buying votes. That's not economical. It's a poor investment.

They're buying influence. Even if Romney doesn't win, they have every Republican in Congress in their pocket.
 
DeaconSig said:
I know you voted for Clinton twice. And I'm not voting my heart. I'm voting as much against your fellow Michiganite (?) as I am for the President. But like I said, I feel for you. It sucks voting for somebody merely because you are scared shitless of what will happen to the country over the next 4 years if the other guy wins. But I promise, it will work out. The President isn't the devil you think he is. And the next 4 years are just going to be gridlock anyways.
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It's Michigander... believe it or not. He's not the devil. He's a tax and spend liberal that is hitting the wall. I can absorb his tax increase proposals. Not a problem. But it is going to hit more than the people making more than $250k. Check the CBO data on the status quo, Obama's budget and Romney's budget sometime. That is telling. It was in the WSM today. And gridlock isn't going to get it done anymore. You can't just say Medicare is fine as long as we tax the rich more. The rich can not sustain that program. Think more in terms of what your kids are going to be dealing with. What is Obama's plan for entitlement program reform? Seriously?
 
DirkTheDeac said:
Bit touchy are we? First of all, I was making mention to a rally in Detroit years ago when supports were talking about getting cash from Obama's stash. And yes, MN and PA are still in play. And I am very aware that Michigan is stuck with Detroit but I have high hopes when it becomes farm land again Michigan will become a red state. Oh, and the debates don't matter? Well, let's just see about that.
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No, just tired of the extreme partisan crap I see from folks like you, rj and abusiveindianacoachfan. But ok great, spend a ton of $$ in MN & PA.
 
cville deac said:
No, just tired of the extreme partisan crap I see from folks like you, rj and abusiveindianacoachfan. But ok great, spend a ton of $$ in MN & PA.
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At least rj sticks to his guns. There is nothing wrong with being partisan. That is an admirable quality in my mind. I don't mind BKF being an admitted socialist. That's his thing. What I don't understand are wishy washy people who at this point in the election process haven't made up their mind. That is what I don't get.
 
DirkTheDeac said:
At least rj sticks to his guns. There is nothing wrong with being partisan. That is an admirable quality in my mind. I don't mind BKF being an admitted socialist. That's his thing. What I don't understand are wishy washy people who at this point in the election process haven't made up their mind. That is what I don't get.
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Where tf haven't I made up my mind? I know how I'm voting. That said, I try to be objective in my posts here when projecting Romney's and Obama's relative chances. I don't buy the abusiveindianacoachfan's posts on the 1 front, nor do I yours. However I do pay attention to polls, Nate Silver's projictions and intrade regardless of my own personal beliefs. So if that makes me wishy washy in your eyes, I do so apologize.
 
cville deac said:
Where tf haven't I made up my mind? I know how I'm voting. That said, I try to be objective in my posts here when projecting Romney's and Obama's relative chances. I don't buy the abusiveindianacoachfan's posts on the 1 front, nor do I yours. However I do pay attention to polls, Nate Silver's projictions and intrade regardless of my own personal beliefs. So if that makes me wishy washy in your eyes, I do so apologize.
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If you want to go by Nate Silver and Intrade then knock yourself out. We will know in about a month where the polls are really at when they want to save face and get real. And I never doubted you made up your mind to vote Obama. It's okay.
 
There's a guy named Andrew Beyer. For a couple years his race selections were considered "interesting" in the Washington Post by handicappers. After a few more years, every major track in the country started using Beyer's Speed Figures.

About six years no one had ever heard of Nate Silver. He was a baseball computer stat geek. All of a sudden he starting hitting every major national race.

At some point, you just have look at his numbers as the best. He is.
 
RJKarl said:
There's a guy named Andrew Beyer. For a couple years his race selections were considered "interesting" in the Washington Post by handicappers. After a few more years, every major track in the country started using Beyer's Speed Figures.

About six years no one had ever heard of Nate Silver. He was a baseball computer stat geek. All of a sudden he starting hitting every major national race.

At some point, you just have look at his numbers as the best. He is.
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Is Nate 100% We are going to find out in less than two months.
 
DirkTheDeac said:
Is Nate 100% We are going to find out in less than two months.
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Do you believe that everyone else in the world also only reads pieces that agree with their preconceived notions?

And it's rare for me to agree with rj, but yes, Nate Silver is good.
 
Nate Silver is good because he gets inside baseball numbers from the Admin.
 
RJKarl said:
There's a guy named Andrew Beyer. For a couple years his race selections were considered "interesting" in the Washington Post by handicappers. After a few more years, every major track in the country started using Beyer's Speed Figures.

About six years no one had ever heard of Nate Silver. He was a baseball computer stat geek. All of a sudden he starting hitting every major national race.

At some point, you just have look at his numbers as the best. He is.
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At this time in 2010 he was predicting the House would Fall to the GOP - he gave them a 60-65% chance. He predicted a 45 seat swing. On the eve of that election he projected 53. It ended up being 63.

In fairness to Silverman he makes every effort to remove the noise from all the polling data. And he did call it correctly. But his own projections of gains two months before the election were off by more than 30% of where things actually landed.

The election still comes down to a handful of states. Romney's path is admittedly harder than Obama's right now though.
 
Predicting highly contested House races is pretty difficult.
 
Go said:
Nate Silver is good because he gets inside baseball numbers from the Admin.
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So he has flanked other pollsters. That should make him even more believeable.
 
PhDeac said:
Predicting highly contested House races is pretty difficult.
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I'd be curious as to how many of these races were decided by 3% of less. And of those so decided how many went to the D vs. the R. Because I suspect most of these races really weren't very close at all since politics tends to be "local" I'd think larger margins of victories are the norm, not the exception, in house races.

A more telling analysis is probably that measuring the discontent with a fully united government behind one party is difficult to measure. That I'd be more inclined to buy - i.e. the strength of what was obviously a general nationwide sentiment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2010
 
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