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U. of Colorado with a completely different vote projection

Go to 538. There are dozens of polls with outlandish projections -- both national and state polls. The key is to decipher which ones always lean one way, which ones have a track record, and which ones use proper methodology. That's basically what Silver's site does. He identifies the left-leaning and right-leaning outfits and puts them in a broader context, and he examines the underlying methodology of polls to explain their results. This poll in question seems to leap to Romney based on economic assumptions it has built in to its methodology, not based on polling numbers. That's fine, but it's a prediction, not really a projection. It's saying that the economy will dictate these results. That doesn't seem to hold up in the face of all the other polling data about how people are likely to vote, which 538 catalogs and incorporates into its projections. In the prediction game, Silver seems to cast the widest net and use the best formula to incorporate information, and thus usually ends up with the closest projections. At least he has in the last two cycles.
 
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bobknightfan said:
I've already forgot what our agreement was....so you really have a chance to screw me here. What was it?
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No screwing here. It was just a straight up bet on the election. You have the big O and I have Mittens. We were batting around a $ figure and you came up with the wonderful idea of whoever wins donating the $ to the website. We decided on $100.

Oh, and I added that whoever wins gets to pick the other's avatar for a month!
 
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bobknightfan said:
Thanks. It's coming back to me now. I guess I was just having one of those "senior moments". (Got a birthday coming up next Thursday. I'm going to celebrate early by canvassing for Obama in Asheboro on Sunday afternoon.)
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No prob. Make sure you stop by the graveyard and get all those ballots in!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!
 
beatrix said:
Clearly something is wrong with their compilation. Its been well-established in this forum that Obama will win the election. I'm unclear at this point why we're even going to the trouble to include the Presidential contest this year. I've since moved on to hoping the GOP flips the Senate.
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Gimme a break with the drama. Obama is ahead at this moment in time and there are still 2 months to go. There could still be a game change or a tightening in crucial states to propel Romney to victory. To deny that Obama is currently ahead and the favorite is sticking your head in the sand and not recognizing reality. To deny that Romney still has a chance to win is also sticking your head in the sand and not recognizing reality. 538 currently has Romney's odds at 22%. It's not like this is 1980, 1984, 1988 or 1996. It's not even 2008 - Romney is in a better position to win than McCain was 4 years ago.
 
beatrix said:
Clearly something is wrong with their compilation. Its been well-established in this forum that Obama will win the election. I'm unclear at this point why we're even going to the trouble to include the Presidential contest this year. I've since moved on to hoping the GOP flips the Senate.
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Yep it's only the forum not all the different reputable polling organizations.
 
bobknightfan said:
I'll probably get some interesting responses. Randolph County isn't exactly Obama Country. It voted 70.5% to 28.2% for McCain four years ago.

The Democrats could run the Virgin Mary against the Republicans' Jack the Ripper in Randolph County and she wouldn't get over 30% of the vote.
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Well, yea, with her foreign policy and stance towards the poor...
 
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