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Royal Bank of Scotland tells investors brace for "cataclysmic year"&"sell everything"

BobStackFan4Life

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Royal Bank of Scotland tells investors brace for "cataclysmic year"&"sell everything"

Everything except high quality bonds that is.
The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has advised clients to brace for a "cataclysmic year" and a global deflationary crisis, warning that the major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may reach $US16 a barrel.

The bank's credit team said markets are flashing the same stress alerts as they did before the Lehman crisis in 2008.

"Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small," it said in a client note.
"China has set off a major correction and it is going to snowball. Equities and credit have become very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the 'Goldilocks' love-in of the last two years," he said.

Mr Roberts expects Wall Street and European stocks to fall by 10pc to 20pc, with an even deeper slide for the FTSE-100 thanks to its high weighting of energy and commodities.

"London is vulnerable to a negative shock. All these people who are 'long' oil and mining companies thinking the dividends are safe are going to discover that they're not at all safe," he said.

Brent oil prices will continue to slide after breaking through a key technical level at $US34.40, with a "bear flag" and "Fibonacci" signals pointing to a floor of $US16.

The bank said a paralysed Opec seems incapable of responding to a deepening slowdown in Asia, the swing region for global oil demand.

Morgan Stanley has also slashed its oil forecast, warning that Brent could fall to $US20 if the US dollar keeps rising, arguing that oil is intensely leveraged to any move in the dollar and is now playing second fiddle to currency effects.

RBS forecast that yields on 10-year German Bunds would fall in time to an all-time low of 0.16pc in a flight to safety, and may break zero as deflationary forces tighten their grip.

The European Central Bank's policy rate will fall to minus 0.7pc. US Treasuries will fall to rock-bottom levels in sympathy, hammering hedge funds that have shorted US bonds in a very crowded "reflation trade".

RBS issued a dire warning for the global economy in November but events have move even faster than feared. It estimates that the US economy slowed to a growth rate of 0.5pc in the fourth quarter, and accuses the US Federal Reserve of "playing with fire" by raising rates into the teeth of the storm. "There has been severe monetary tightening in the US from the rising dollar," it said.

RBS said the epicentre of global stress is China, where debt-driven expansion has reached saturation. The country now faces a surge in capital flight and needs a "dramatically lower" currency, a fresh leg of the rolling global drama that is likely to play out fast and furiously.

"We are deeply sceptical of the consensus that the authorities can 'buy time' by their heavy intervention in cutting reserve ratio requirements (RRR), rate cuts, and easing in fiscal policy," it said.
There's a bit more doom and gloom in the full article here:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/rbs-tells-investors-sell-everything-20160111-gm3ssa.html
 
I'm shocked that they are telling clients to sell everything. I'd be interested in seeing the full letter.
 
Thanks Obama.
 
BAC issued an advisory late last week on rail car loadings. Decline over the last several months. I subscribe to a service which monitors this activity and noted a gradual decline beginning last Summer. Most scenarios presented are only opinions but I do expect the US to go into recession by late Spring. How severe, do not have an idea but IMO do not expect to be to the degree experienced in the recession that commenced in November 2007. Also keep in mind that in the final year of a US Presidential term, the US usually has either a recession or economic slowdown. Happened in March 2000 during Clinton's final year and also in '07-08 with Bush.
 
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Happened in March 2000 during Clinton's final year
Otherwise known as Bush ruining the Clinton years.

Pretty extreme take but I've been in cash for 1-2 years. IMO we still haven't recovered from the asset bubble created in the 1990s....and China and India have hit major economic walls.
 
Otherwise known as Bush ruining the Clinton years.

Pretty extreme take but I've been in cash for 1-2 years. IMO we still haven't recovered from the asset bubble created in the 1990s....and China and India have hit major economic walls.

Bush did not take office until 2000. Final year of Clinton's term. Dot com bubble bursting. Many investors were trading on margin and imploded...
 
Otherwise known as Bush ruining the Clinton years.

Pretty extreme take but I've been in cash for 1-2 years. IMO we still haven't recovered from the asset bubble created in the 1990s....and China and India have hit major economic walls.
The last 1-2 years have had awesome returns for pretty much everybody in the market
 
The last 1-2 years have had awesome returns for pretty much everybody in the market

Always remember returns mean nothing if one does not take his profits or as one pundit said "It takes a prophet to make a profit"
 
The last 1-2 years have had awesome returns for pretty much everybody in the market
Things peaked about a year ago and were frothy at the top before trending down last summer. From where I started selling, the S&P is only up 2% and the DOW is slightly negative. The retirement funds I had my 401k in are now trading below where I sold it ~2 years ago...by ~4%. I could have done a lot better if I had held on for another 6-8 months to catch that last run up but....I ended up better than holding like most people did, at least today.
 
Bush did not take office until 2000. Final year of Clinton's term. Dot com bubble bursting. Many investors were trading on margin and imploded...

Bush was "elected" in 2000 and took office in 2001.
 
So I shouldn't invest my Powerball winnings tonight in the stock market?
 
yes, DV should definitely put $1.5 billion on margin and dump it all on KKD tonight
 
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