General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

palmab03 said:
How about credit card debt? Are people better off with less mortgage debt but stuck in an apartment where the rent has risen 80% in the past 5 years? I basically an unable to move since I've been here since 2008 and am paying $1,300 for an apartment that if I left would be rented out for $2k.
Click to expand...

have you considered getting into porn
 
palmab03 said:
How about credit card debt? Are people better off with less mortgage debt but stuck in an apartment where the rent has risen 80% in the past 5 years? I basically an unable to move since I've been here since 2008 and am paying $1,300 for an apartment that if I left would be rented out for $2k.
Click to expand...

When my friend moved from my old place in Beverly Hills, he was paying $1275 in about 2010 or 12. They did minor upgrades (which made the place worse) and charged the next guy $3500.
 
palmab03 said:
How about credit card debt? Are people better off with less mortgage debt but stuck in an apartment where the rent has risen 80% in the past 5 years? I basically an unable to move since I've been here since 2008 and am paying $1,300 for an apartment that if I left would be rented out for $2k.
Click to expand...

From the article:
There were also increases in auto and student loans, but credit card and home equity debts declined.

Total debt remains more than $400 billion below the peak of 2008, so per capita debt continues to decline. And rather than looking like a late-stage debt-cycle, credit quality continues to improve.
Click to expand...

There is no question that the recovery has been slow and that almost all the gains have been captured by the top 1% (really, the top 0.1%). The notion of a credit-card-fueled recovery is not at all accurate however.
 
palma, you need to hook with a girl who has a rent control place in Santa Monica overlooking the beach for like $800/month.
 
palmab03 said:
So you are unaware that rental rates across the united states have skyrocketed since 2010? Interesting.
Click to expand...

ny-governors-race.jpg
 
TheTwinAndreBen said:
Some quotes from the world of intelligence:

David Plouffe, a former top adviser to President Obama, argued Thursday that Democrats should not be worried about former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton after the past week, during which her poll numbers have fallen nationwide and in battleground states.

Appearing on the "Keepin' it 1600" podcast with former Obama hands Dan Pfeiffer and Jon Favreau, Plouffe warned Democrats that they "should not be panicked at all" about Clinton's chances in November, adding that he believes Republican nominee Donald Trump is hitting his "high-water mark" this week with the new polling figures that show him ahead in multiple battleground states and nationwide.

"They should not be panicked at all," said Plouffe, who managed Obama's 2008 campaign. "Now, there's no doubt that things have tightened a little bit, but she had an outlandish lead coming out of the convention. She was not going to win battleground states by 10-12 points ... It hasn't been their greatest week, but the fundamentals remain that she has a healthy lead in the battleground states that she needs to win."

Trump has to win everything left on the table," Plouffe said, arguing that Pennsylvania is a "lock" for Clinton. "Everything — and I would argue, I think it's kind of artificial, this is the high-water mark of Trump's campaign right now. I think he's going to have some tough moments coming up."

"When push comes to shove, I think she's going to have more late breakers her way," he continued. "Again, it just takes him doing sort of a Herculean, unheard of task, which is running the table. We're not talking about Ronald Reagan here or even Richard Nixon. We're talking about Donald Trump. He's the most deeply-flawed presidential candidate, you know, one of the most deeply-flawed in American history."

If you want to listen to the entire ep, Plouffe is like the first 10 mins.

https://soundcloud.com/keepinit1600/ep-13-david-plouffe-hillarys-win-and-trumps-bad-week
Click to expand...

Plouffe's an incredibly sharp guy. He knows the swing state numbers intimately and never needs to spin them. Just calmly scrolls through them in a matter of fact manner. Axelrod was sharp, but mush mouthed and spun too hard too many times. Kellyanne Conway is also sharp, but she's constantly on attack aggressively since Trump's such a train wreck. KAC's solid, but 'Pubs have been a hot mess with quantitative data since Ken Mehlman in 2004.
 
Originally Posted by RJKarl View Post
palma, you need to hook UP with a girl who has a rent control place in Santa Monica overlooking the beach for like $800/month.

TownieDeac said:
i don't think palma would be very good at hooking
Click to expand...

good catch :)
 
knowell said:
Defending that I see. The press these days are known for their lack of bias so I am sure this would all work out well.

923, I like you and you are better than this. Don't let the fear of Trump turn you into something you would not like.
Click to expand...

Did you even read the article I posted?

You're a big free market guy. Markets apply to ideas and goods. America has the most-free ideas market in the world. If a news outlet tries this idea and gets no traction, it was a bad idea and it will be dropped. If they try it and get big ratings/clicks/views, that means a large section of the population finds it to be useful, and thus worthy of continuation. If other news outlets get ratings/clicks/views by publishing criticism of the method, so be it.

It's no secret that I don't like Trump, because I don't like bullies who are full of bullshit. Nonetheless, both parties and all politicians are now spreading more bullshit than truth, and social media just amplifies it in the respective echo chambers. I think it is the job of the press to call all of them on their bullshittery. If some media outlet chooses the method I posted, good for them - it's a free country, you don't have to consume that media. Nice thing about America, that.

Certainly, I would not support any government requiring the application of the methods suggested in the article, or any other government mandated editorial method for that matter.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Plouffe's an incredibly sharp guy. He knows the swing state numbers intimately and never needs to spin them. Just calmly scrolls through them in a matter of fact manner. Axelrod was sharp, but mush mouthed and spun too hard too many times. Kellyanne Conway is also sharp, but she's constantly on attack aggressively since Trump's such a train wreck. KAC's solid, but 'Pubs have been a hot mess with quantitative data since Ken Mehlman in 2004.
Click to expand...

Yeah, what people, not to mention some of the deplorables on this thread, don't get is that it is all electoral college math, and we don't have blowout elections in the US, and haven't in many, many decades.

So it doesn't really matter what a national poll says on a given day. Obama won 51/47 in 2012, which is pretty tight as a national percentage race, and he was the first guy to crack 50% I think since like Eisenhower. But what mattered is that he won convincingly in the electoral college with well over 300 votes.
 
What's the point of LA/USC poll when for the first time i noticed that every poll they have ever conducted has a built in chance effect that cancels out the poll. No wonder why that thing changes every day.
 
Did you guys see Trump on Fallon last night? He hit it out of the park. I think it helped to remind a lot of Americans just what a likeable guy he is.
 
Deacon923 said:
From the article:

There is no question that the recovery has been slow and that almost all the gains have been captured by the top 1% (really, the top 0.1%). The notion of a credit-card-fueled recovery is not at all accurate however.
Click to expand...

This still says Total Debt, of which mortgage debt is the largest figure. Doesn't address credit card debt. The average US household with credit card debt holds a balance of $15,000. The average Mortgage is $170,000. At 18% rates on the $15k vs 4% rates with an interest deduction, credit card interest is more than half of the mortgage interest burden, even though the amount outstanding is less than 10% of that of mortgages.

Likewise, changing a mortgage where you got to deduct the interest to a rental payment which is even higher than your mortgage payment was does not make people "better off" All mixed with as townie said the bigger issue being cost of living outpacing wages drastically, and its hard to say the economy is any better off in the grand scheme of things. We're one external shock to the system away from the house of cards to come tumbling down. We've replaced a housing bubble with an asset bubble in pretty much every asset class, stocks, bonds, etc. When that bubble pops it stands to reason, we're going to be much worse off than in 2008.

Here's the credit card debt #'s

https://www.valuepenguin.com/average-credit-card-debt
 
Are you people nuts? Hillary is collapsing and a Trump presidency is eminent. I'm trying to get BKF and BSF to come up and party with me but they won't commit. I'm buying. Three rooms at Trump tower Chicago on me. Dinner and drinks to celebrate kicking the un-Americans the fuck out of our country, American-style. who's in?
 
Corporate debt rates are alarming as well. Are there more jobs because the economy is chugging along and turning around, or is it because corporate debt has basically doubled from 2006 from $4.8 trillion to $8.3 trillion. Banks aren't being more frugal, they're just lending to companies instead of homeowners. Credit based job creation. Sounds wonderful and sustainable. What happens when the next stock market crashes and all the sudden companies can't pay their debt by raising equity. Massive layoffs? A corporate collapse instead of a housing market collapse?
 
Last edited:
BobStackFan4Life said:
Did you guys see Trump on Fallon last night? He hit it out of the park. I think it helped to remind a lot of Americans just what a likeable guy he is.
Click to expand...


Well, I for one am pretty damn shocked to find that wasn't a hairpiece.
 
palmab03 said:
This still says Total Debt, of which mortgage debt is the largest figure. Doesn't address credit card debt. The average US household with credit card debt holds a balance of $15,000. The average Mortgage is $170,000. At 18% rates on the $15k vs 4% rates with an interest deduction, credit card interest is more than half of the mortgage interest burden, even though the amount outstanding is less than 10% of that of mortgages.

Likewise, changing a mortgage where you got to deduct the interest to a rental payment which is even higher than your mortgage payment was does not make people "better off" All mixed with as townie said the bigger issue being cost of living outpacing wages drastically, and its hard to say the economy is any better off in the grand scheme of things. We're one external shock to the system away from the house of cards to come tumbling down. We've replaced a housing bubble with an asset bubble in pretty much every asset class, stocks, bonds, etc. When that bubble pops it stands to reason, we're going to be much worse off than in 2008.

Here's the credit card debt #'s

https://www.valuepenguin.com/average-credit-card-debt
Click to expand...

Dude, your link shows credit card debt falling throughout the recovery.

graph-for-avg-debt_copy.png


So does Townie's link, with a small uptick recently in credit card debt per indebted household (but still a fall in average credit card debt overall, because less people have credit card debt).

I'm not taking issue with some of your other points, but the notion of a credit-card fueled recovery doesn't hold water.

Personally I think the biggest credit threat is auto loans. They are giving those things away to anybody with a pulse and have been for years. There's a lot of shaky people with big car loans and I could definitely see a shock happening in that sector. That would have big knock-on effects too, because when people have their cars repo'd they can't get to work, productivity goes down, etc. etc.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top