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General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

At at least jhmd is consistent it really cracks me up how somebody can go from a Bernie Sanders shill to a deficit hawk in a few short months

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Some context during Bill Clinton's years would be helpful:

-Cold War peace dividend
-Cuts to military spending resulting from BRAC (initiated by Bush and SecDef Cheney)
-Bush tax increases (that cost him the election - ie "Read My Lips")
-Republican Congress
-Dot Com bubble economy

I'll give Bill Clinton credit for rolling with it. I doubt his spouse would do as well.
 
Some quotes from the world of intelligence:

David Plouffe, a former top adviser to President Obama, argued Thursday that Democrats should not be worried about former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton after the past week, during which her poll numbers have fallen nationwide and in battleground states.

Appearing on the "Keepin' it 1600" podcast with former Obama hands Dan Pfeiffer and Jon Favreau, Plouffe warned Democrats that they "should not be panicked at all" about Clinton's chances in November, adding that he believes Republican nominee Donald Trump is hitting his "high-water mark" this week with the new polling figures that show him ahead in multiple battleground states and nationwide.

"They should not be panicked at all," said Plouffe, who managed Obama's 2008 campaign. "Now, there's no doubt that things have tightened a little bit, but she had an outlandish lead coming out of the convention. She was not going to win battleground states by 10-12 points ... It hasn't been their greatest week, but the fundamentals remain that she has a healthy lead in the battleground states that she needs to win."

Trump has to win everything left on the table," Plouffe said, arguing that Pennsylvania is a "lock" for Clinton. "Everything — and I would argue, I think it's kind of artificial, this is the high-water mark of Trump's campaign right now. I think he's going to have some tough moments coming up."

"When push comes to shove, I think she's going to have more late breakers her way," he continued. "Again, it just takes him doing sort of a Herculean, unheard of task, which is running the table. We're not talking about Ronald Reagan here or even Richard Nixon. We're talking about Donald Trump. He's the most deeply-flawed presidential candidate, you know, one of the most deeply-flawed in American history."

If you want to listen to the entire ep, Plouffe is like the first 10 mins.

https://soundcloud.com/keepinit1600/ep-13-david-plouffe-hillarys-win-and-trumps-bad-week
 
aocs3281 said:
Some context during Bill Clinton's years would be helpful:

-Cold War peace dividend
-Cuts to military spending resulting from BRAC (initiated by Bush and SecDef Cheney)
-Bush tax increases (that cost him the election - ie "Read My Lips")
-Republican Congress
-Dot Com bubble economy

I'll give Bill Clinton credit for rolling with it. I doubt his spouse would do as well.
Click to expand...

You still don't address how the Republicans all left behind record deficits.

How about the fact that the equity markets under the Bushes were flat and exploded in the Dems.

P.S. If you say Clinton was the result of the dot com, then to be honest you'd have to say PCs and the computer revolution was the cause for any gains under Reagan.
 
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palmab03 said:
How about credit card debt? Are people better off with less mortgage debt but stuck in an apartment where the rent has risen 80% in the past 5 years? I basically an unable to move since I've been here since 2008 and am paying $1,300 for an apartment that if I left would be rented out for $2k.
Click to expand...

have you considered getting into porn
 
palmab03 said:
How about credit card debt? Are people better off with less mortgage debt but stuck in an apartment where the rent has risen 80% in the past 5 years? I basically an unable to move since I've been here since 2008 and am paying $1,300 for an apartment that if I left would be rented out for $2k.
Click to expand...

When my friend moved from my old place in Beverly Hills, he was paying $1275 in about 2010 or 12. They did minor upgrades (which made the place worse) and charged the next guy $3500.
 
palmab03 said:
How about credit card debt? Are people better off with less mortgage debt but stuck in an apartment where the rent has risen 80% in the past 5 years? I basically an unable to move since I've been here since 2008 and am paying $1,300 for an apartment that if I left would be rented out for $2k.
Click to expand...

From the article:
There were also increases in auto and student loans, but credit card and home equity debts declined.

Total debt remains more than $400 billion below the peak of 2008, so per capita debt continues to decline. And rather than looking like a late-stage debt-cycle, credit quality continues to improve.
Click to expand...

There is no question that the recovery has been slow and that almost all the gains have been captured by the top 1% (really, the top 0.1%). The notion of a credit-card-fueled recovery is not at all accurate however.
 
palma, you need to hook with a girl who has a rent control place in Santa Monica overlooking the beach for like $800/month.
 
TheTwinAndreBen said:
Some quotes from the world of intelligence:

David Plouffe, a former top adviser to President Obama, argued Thursday that Democrats should not be worried about former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton after the past week, during which her poll numbers have fallen nationwide and in battleground states.

Appearing on the "Keepin' it 1600" podcast with former Obama hands Dan Pfeiffer and Jon Favreau, Plouffe warned Democrats that they "should not be panicked at all" about Clinton's chances in November, adding that he believes Republican nominee Donald Trump is hitting his "high-water mark" this week with the new polling figures that show him ahead in multiple battleground states and nationwide.

"They should not be panicked at all," said Plouffe, who managed Obama's 2008 campaign. "Now, there's no doubt that things have tightened a little bit, but she had an outlandish lead coming out of the convention. She was not going to win battleground states by 10-12 points ... It hasn't been their greatest week, but the fundamentals remain that she has a healthy lead in the battleground states that she needs to win."

Trump has to win everything left on the table," Plouffe said, arguing that Pennsylvania is a "lock" for Clinton. "Everything — and I would argue, I think it's kind of artificial, this is the high-water mark of Trump's campaign right now. I think he's going to have some tough moments coming up."

"When push comes to shove, I think she's going to have more late breakers her way," he continued. "Again, it just takes him doing sort of a Herculean, unheard of task, which is running the table. We're not talking about Ronald Reagan here or even Richard Nixon. We're talking about Donald Trump. He's the most deeply-flawed presidential candidate, you know, one of the most deeply-flawed in American history."

If you want to listen to the entire ep, Plouffe is like the first 10 mins.

https://soundcloud.com/keepinit1600/ep-13-david-plouffe-hillarys-win-and-trumps-bad-week
Click to expand...

Plouffe's an incredibly sharp guy. He knows the swing state numbers intimately and never needs to spin them. Just calmly scrolls through them in a matter of fact manner. Axelrod was sharp, but mush mouthed and spun too hard too many times. Kellyanne Conway is also sharp, but she's constantly on attack aggressively since Trump's such a train wreck. KAC's solid, but 'Pubs have been a hot mess with quantitative data since Ken Mehlman in 2004.
 
Originally Posted by RJKarl View Post
palma, you need to hook UP with a girl who has a rent control place in Santa Monica overlooking the beach for like $800/month.

TownieDeac said:
i don't think palma would be very good at hooking
Click to expand...

good catch :)
 
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