Pilchard
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2017-8 Season: FSU is 16-5 (5-4) and #21 in the KP ratings. Against top 100 teams, FSU is 5-5 with wins over #27 Florida (on the road), #13 UNC, #45 Cuse (in 2 OT), #41 VA Tech, #25 Miami (in OT). FSU's losses #71 OK State, #4 Duke, #29 Miami, #31 L'ville (at home) and #80 BC. FSU has won 3 straight, and last time out, the Noles beat Miami at home in OT 103-94. FSU is 1-3 on the ACC road, beating VT, but losing at BC, Duke and Miami. Fun fact: over the last 9 years, Leonard Hamilton has taken FSU to post-season 8 times, and to the NCAAs 5 times. This year looks like NCAA invite #6 out of 10. Good run at a school, where football is the clear priority.
Offense: The Nole's strength is their offense. They are the #2 ACC team (behind only Duke) in offensive efficiency in ACC games. FSU attacks the basket. They are #1 in the conference in FTA per FGA, they are #4 in offensive rebounding percentage, 21% of their offense comes from FTs (#2 in the ACC), and FSU does not turn the ball over #2 in TO%. The Noles play up tempo; they are #1 in the ACC in tempo, and they have ramped up the tempo in their last 5 ACC games scoring: 101, 75, 91, 88, 103. Their "semi" offensive weaknesses are FT shooting (#8 in the ACC) and 3 point shooting (#9 in the ACC) as only 30% of the FSU offense comes from 3s (#11 in the ACC).
Defense: FSU's defense has been a problem this year. Surprisingly FSU is DFL in the ACC in defensive efficiency in conference games, and they have struggled in virtually every defensive category. Teams shoot well against FSU from 2 (50% - #12 in the ACC) and from 3 (37% - #11 in the ACC); FSU does not force turnovers (#13 in the ACC), and they foul a lot (#13 in FTA/FGA). Not surprisingly, given the above-stats, FSU has played a lot of high scoring games (in FSU's 9 ACC games, 161 or more points have been scored 7 times).
Roster: FSU is big outside of their PG, starting: 6-1 (CJ Walker), 6-6 (Brian Angola), 6-6 (Terance Mann), 6-8 (Phil Cofer) and 7-4, yes 7-4 (Christ Koumadje). FSU generally plays an 8 man rotation. The three bench players most likely to play are freshman MJ Walker (6-6; 41% from 3), Trent Forrest (6-8) and Mfiondu Kabengle (6-8 245). Mann is the Nole's leading scorer; he had 30 against VT, 25 against L'ville and 21 against BC; Mann is not a threat from 3 (only 9 made threes on the season), but he is a beast inside, shooting 66% from 2.
Bottom line: KP projects an 83-77 FSU win; Vegas has the Noles favored by 3 and the total is 157.5. WF has not beaten FSU since February 9, 2013 - a dominating 71-46 WF win, which included a 10 point contribution from Chase Fischer. The Deacs are physically banged up and mentally fragile right now, but have a feeling that the Deacs will play well tonight, and pull out a home win to put a little distance between WF and Pitt for the battle of the bottom of the conference.
Offense: The Nole's strength is their offense. They are the #2 ACC team (behind only Duke) in offensive efficiency in ACC games. FSU attacks the basket. They are #1 in the conference in FTA per FGA, they are #4 in offensive rebounding percentage, 21% of their offense comes from FTs (#2 in the ACC), and FSU does not turn the ball over #2 in TO%. The Noles play up tempo; they are #1 in the ACC in tempo, and they have ramped up the tempo in their last 5 ACC games scoring: 101, 75, 91, 88, 103. Their "semi" offensive weaknesses are FT shooting (#8 in the ACC) and 3 point shooting (#9 in the ACC) as only 30% of the FSU offense comes from 3s (#11 in the ACC).
Defense: FSU's defense has been a problem this year. Surprisingly FSU is DFL in the ACC in defensive efficiency in conference games, and they have struggled in virtually every defensive category. Teams shoot well against FSU from 2 (50% - #12 in the ACC) and from 3 (37% - #11 in the ACC); FSU does not force turnovers (#13 in the ACC), and they foul a lot (#13 in FTA/FGA). Not surprisingly, given the above-stats, FSU has played a lot of high scoring games (in FSU's 9 ACC games, 161 or more points have been scored 7 times).
Roster: FSU is big outside of their PG, starting: 6-1 (CJ Walker), 6-6 (Brian Angola), 6-6 (Terance Mann), 6-8 (Phil Cofer) and 7-4, yes 7-4 (Christ Koumadje). FSU generally plays an 8 man rotation. The three bench players most likely to play are freshman MJ Walker (6-6; 41% from 3), Trent Forrest (6-8) and Mfiondu Kabengle (6-8 245). Mann is the Nole's leading scorer; he had 30 against VT, 25 against L'ville and 21 against BC; Mann is not a threat from 3 (only 9 made threes on the season), but he is a beast inside, shooting 66% from 2.
Bottom line: KP projects an 83-77 FSU win; Vegas has the Noles favored by 3 and the total is 157.5. WF has not beaten FSU since February 9, 2013 - a dominating 71-46 WF win, which included a 10 point contribution from Chase Fischer. The Deacs are physically banged up and mentally fragile right now, but have a feeling that the Deacs will play well tonight, and pull out a home win to put a little distance between WF and Pitt for the battle of the bottom of the conference.
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