10% chance Manning turns into a “Top ACC coach” and 50% chance that Wellman can hire someone as good as Manning (based solely on Wellman’s last two hires).
To seriously advocate for Manning’s firing you have to, IMO:
1. Vastly underestimate Manning’s overall coaching ability;
2. Vastly overestimate how easy it is to succeed at Wake;
3. Vastly overestimate how easy it is to identify AND hire a potential top 20 coach from all available options; and
4. Vastly overestimate Ron Wellman’s ability to do #3.
The further down the list you get the less defensible the conclusion.
Where did you get the number 10% for the "chance that Manning becomes a top ACC coach"? And why are you multiplying the probabilities together in the second half of your inequality? Those are not dependent out comes so the probabilities (that you made up) shouldn't be multiplied.