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Manning Buyout Negotiations Have Begun

thatguy2016 said:
I guess, especially given he leaked the initial interest when we were negotiating Manning's initial contract - but there is no leverage anyway

Let's say WF owes him $3 million per year over the next 5 years. It seems like in that case we are negotiating perhaps a discounted lump sum based on:
1. time value of money (but interest rates are really low and the markets are very uncertain right now)
2. Removal of other salary offsets (as has been pointed out, those don't amount to a whole lot)
3. possibility of death (hey, we had a 56-year-old coach drop dead and that's why we are in this situation; OTOH the odds of a 53-year-old living 5 years are pretty close to 1)
4. possible changes in tax law if a D becomes President

#'s 1 and 3 are maybe worth 10% of the total face value (really, they are not a concession but the "fair" way to eliminate risk and get it done now). #2 is maybe worth another million if we think Manning immediately lands on his feet with a $175/year assistant gig. #4 is really the selling point, I guess, for making something happen with a lump sum and paying less.
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In what world would anyone ever guarantee incentives that have never reached?
 
As many people have pointed out, having a winning team that brings in an additional 5K or so per game is probably worth between 2 to 3 million a season, so bringing in a good coach (not a guarantee) should pay for the buy-out on it's own. And if things go really well, then you probably even have some extra money Of course, then you have to pay the new coach. So we think that Manning is making between 2M and 2.5M a season? Looks like Beilein made 3.8M or so at Michigan. So we would probably have to cough up an extra 1.5M to 2.5M a year for him. I would think a guy like Forbes would come on board for less than 2M at the beginning, so hiring him would actually save you money versus keeping Manning. Again, this assumes excitement returns to the program and you get a decent increase in attendance and some things like donations, ad revenue, etc.

To me the "can't afford to pay the buyout" narrative makes no sense. Hire a good coach and the buyout is paid for on its own. It all comes down to who we can get to coach, and how much are we willing to pay for that. Obviously money saved on paying DM going forward is extra money that can be used for a new coach.
 
RJKarl said:
In what world would anyone ever guarantee incentives that have never reached?
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this doesn't really matter to the discussion at hand

assuming Currie is a competent human being and that this leak is true, then it's pretty safe to conclude that WF is prepared to pay whatever is required under the guaranteed portions of the contract (this could be $15 million, $12 million, $9 million, $2...again, it does not matter to the discussion at hand) and is simply negotiating how to reduce that guaranteed stream of future payments to some lower amount, accounting for time value of money, mortality risk, salary offsets, and potential changes to tax law.

none of these factors give WF great leverage...which leads me back to, if we assume Currie is competent and that this leak is true, then WF must be willing to pay whatever it is contractually obligated to pay.
 
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thatguy2016 said:
this doesn't really matter to the discussion at hand

assuming Currie is a competent human being and that this leak is true, then it's pretty safe to conclude that WF is prepared to pay whatever is required under the guaranteed portions of the contract (this could be $15 million, $12 million, $9 million, $2...again, it does not matter to the discussion at hand) and is simply negotiating how to reduce that guaranteed stream of future payments to some lower amount, accounting for time value of money, mortality risk, salary offsets, and potential changes to tax law.

none of these factors give WF great leverage...which leads me back to, if we assume Currie is competent and that this leak is true, then WF must be willing to pay whatever it is contractually obligated to pay.
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Of course the rapid spread of coronavirus could change the mortality risk calc and provide a more meaningful reduction now???
 
I'm guessing a buyout may include an annuity with a total package greater than the $15 million assumed to be the figure. Spreading out the payments over time with lower upfront cost, a win-win. Danny can move to one of the no individual income tax states and really make out.
 
thatguy2016 said:
this doesn't really matter to the discussion at hand

assuming Currie is a competent human being and that this leak is true, then it's pretty safe to conclude that WF is prepared to pay whatever is required under the guaranteed portions of the contract (this could be $15 million, $12 million, $9 million, $2...again, it does not matter to the discussion at hand) and is simply negotiating how to reduce that guaranteed stream of future payments to some lower amount, accounting for time value of money, mortality risk, salary offsets, and potential changes to tax law.

none of these factors give WF great leverage...which leads me back to, if we assume Currie is competent and that this leak is true, then WF must be willing to pay whatever it is contractually obligated to pay.
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BTW, thanks for the laugh about #4. That's hilarious as is #3.

Most likely the #1 issue about the money is how long he can be barred from taking another job without returning some of the pay.
 
morrison2951 said:
THE TIME IS NOW!
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9CGG7.gif
 
The only leverage we have is that if he wants to coach again before he's 58 he'll take less money. If he doesn't care if he coaches again, he'll stick it to Currie and take the whole term.
 
Atlanta Deacon said:
The only leverage we have is that if he wants to coach again before he's 58 he'll take less money. If he doesn't care if he coaches again, he'll stick it to Currie and take the whole term.
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Really? I love my job, but if my firm paid me 80% of my expected comp over the next 5 years to do nothing, I would take that in a heartbeat.
If I hated my current work environment, I would take far less.
 
The man made $60 million during his NBA career. I would think he's not going to nickel and dime us but who knows.
 
qcdeac said:
Really? I love my job, but if my firm paid me 80% of my expected comp over the next 5 years to do nothing, I would take that in a heartbeat.
If I hated my current work environment, I would take far less.
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How much would you take if they said,you couldn't take another job during that time?
 
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