Just saw on the presser that we have the coronavirus under control. Whew. Let’s hit the bars again.
Meanwhile in Italy, death panels
https://www.yahoo.com/news/italians-over-80-left-die-151225888.html
This is how you scare the elderly to not attend church and get behind preventive measures.
Went to the store for a couple of things. The paper aisle. bread aisle and meat aisle were empty.
Mako- RE: step into my office- Harvey Weinstein says hello.
Goddamn Palma. I hope you’re as right on that as you are on most things, bro.
Fixed.Meanwhile in Italy, death panels
https://www.yahoo.com/news/italians-over-80-left-die-151225888.html
This is how you scare the elderly to complain about Democrats and socialism.
I think testing would greatly improve the Palma worst case scenario future. There is a way to contain the virus and it requires knowing who has the virus and that includes the asymptomatic so they can be properly isolated. At some point I would think there would be the development of an RDT, or at least serological testing that can be done. I read some papers that they already have serological assays in development in China and such. As long as you find a low cross reactive antibody, difficult but there’s always some, you probably could get like a .95 or so on a ROC curve, good enough for mass surveillance, Results in 30 minutes to an hour, cheap, and the ability to run millions of tests a day. You start doing that you can start way better quarantine measures.
It’s not as simple as you are making it out to be, even the most basic epidemiological SIR model has more variables that will prevent continuous doubling simply sick isolate, recovered are protected, and that simplistic model is where all individuals in a population make contact at an identical rate and have identical probabilities of disease transmission to those contacts per time. That’s why the trendy bend the curve thing has been out there because the curve will bend, it’s the UKs gamble that you isolate the most vulnerable, cause a quick curve bend using healthy people to fill in the R of the SIR model.
California ordered to close all bars, but not enforceable, yet. Restaurants to be at 50% capacity. Hotels & Motels are being ordered to house homeless. Maybe CA & NYC can slow the curve. Not counting on it in states like NC & the midwest.
Assuming you're at 100k cases nationwide right now in the US, you get to 100M cases in 2 months if it keeps up with a simple 2x multiplier every 6 days. Some municipalities may be able to slow it significantly if they shut down all businesses, but I don't see that level of commitment nationwide.
If the number of cases are significantly less, you buy yourself a couple weeks.
It's doubling every 3 days, not 6.
Reported.
This shit sucks. NYC schools closed until at least April 20th, going to start online learning next week. Only things allowed to open starting tuesday are grocery stores, bodega, pharmacies and restaurants for delivery only.