myDeaconmyhand
First man to get a team of horses up Bear Mountain
I'd argue that Shoo has a good point from an available data perspective and our ability to formulate a solid opinion on Biden's culpability. I think of this like a presence/absence survey. If you go to a place 50 times to survey for an item or an animal species (in this case sexual assault) and at one site, lets call it Trumpville, you see the species 25 out of 50 visits, you are pretty certain it is truly there, even if a few of those visits you were mistaken and thought you saw it but it wasn't actually observed on that occasion. If you go to a second site, let's call it Bidenville, and you only see it one time out of 50, it is pretty reasonable to conclude, or at least suspect, it was a mistake that one time and that the animal maybe isn't actually there. I laid this same concept out during the Kavanaugh debacle, once we had the second and or third accusation, the probability that he actually committed sexual assault went way up. This is why a thorough investigation of some sort on this one observation is really important, or a deep vetting of those other site visits to see why maybe the animal/assault wasn't detected.
Sure, but we're not bird watching, and there's no simple analogy for claiming a woman is lying about being raped by a US Senator. I'm not saying that you're calling her a liar, but your mathematical analysis doesn't stand up in this instance. Not all murderers are serial killers, and not all rapists are serial rapists.
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