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Final Presidential Election Predictions

Who Wins With How Many EVs

  • Total voters
    66
  • Poll closed .
I don't feel good about any of the potential add on states. NC and GA have too many rubes, Florida is Florida, Texas started too red. Only additional flip I could see outside the midwest is AZ because of demographics.
 
I see everyone has learned the lesson of the 2016 election, nobody wants to go with 400+ so that Brad can't make fun of them.
 
DeaconSig said:
I spoke with a friend who would know who indicated that the Dem's internal polling looks bad for NC, both for Biden and Cunningham.
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DeacMan said:
When was Biden last in NC. That would be an indicator I guess.
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Might have been when he was in Durham a few weeks ago? Jill Biden and Harris have been here since. Might have to do more with the fact that there are paths to victory for Biden that don't include NC, though.
 
My hot-take:
Biden will have a solid EV lead, but seconds after the polls close, Trump is going to declare himself the winner.
Every single vote is going to be scrutinized, and somehow, he is going to remain in office.
 
DeacMan said:
When was Biden last in NC. That would be an indicator I guess.
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Jill was in Charlotte Saturday. Kamala was in Goldsboro and Fayetteville yesterday. I know Joe was in Durham two weeks ago. Not sure if he’s been there more recently.

So how do you all think the increased voter turnout and youth vote will factor in? You all don’t see bullish about it.
 
DeaconSig said:
I spoke with a friend who would know who indicated that the Dem's internal polling looks bad for NC, both for Biden and Cunningham.
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The Cunningham part is so frustrating. If he loses this we can sit here and blame the rubes, but this is 100% on him. It's astonishing how much he has fucked this up when he's running against an unpopular incumbent. To be clear, I voted for Cunningham and was never conflicted about it, but in a state like NC a big part of the game for statewide Dem candidates is not giving people any reason not to vote for you.

If yard signs are any indicator, Cal is in trouble. Durham is as blue as it gets in NC and Biden and Cooper signs definitely outnumber those of their opponents (talking about those that are actually on people's property, not the stupid Run, Forest, Run signs on the highways). Our Cal lawn sign is one of few I've seen around town.
 
Pilchard said:
FWIW, beyond depressing that our current President could conduct himself as he has over the past 4 years (and really for his entire adult life) and the race for re-election could be this close. Just when you think that he can't do or say something more self-serving or demonstrate any worse leadership qualities, Trump finds a way to out-do himself. Amazing how the people that blindly follow him refuse to see how Trump could care less about them as he cares for only himself. Further unbelievable how the Republican party has essentially gone all-in to suppress the vote and/or find ways to exclude counting of the votes that fellow Americans have cast. If there was ever a time for karma to play a role, this is it.

Biden will win the popular vote, by a significantly greater margin than Clinton in 2016.
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The fact that his followers refuse to see or acknowledge this obvious personality disorder is truly incredible. Trump has never once expressed remorse for all of the people in this country getting sick or dying. He genuinely doesn't care. He has no conscience and is incapable of feeling shame. That's why he keeps holding his super spreader rallies. He doesn't care if some of his followers get sick or die. As long as they show him the adulation he craves and he gets re-elected. He is a repulsive human being.
 
NC will go for Trump by the thinnest of margins. Cal won't even come all that close. Roy will win again.

We're such a weird state.
 
Yeah, I know a decent amount of Biden-Tillis voters. Overall, I am hopeful for NC going Biden after just looking at the early voting #'s which show party affiliation. Almost as many independents have voted as pubs, will be super interesting how they vote.
 
PhDeac said:
Jill was in Charlotte Saturday. Kamala was in Goldsboro and Fayetteville yesterday. I know Joe was in Durham two weeks ago. Not sure if he’s been there more recently.

So how do you all think the increased voter turnout and youth vote will factor in? You all don’t see bullish about it.
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I feel bullish about it for sure and my hot take is that Biden is going to overperform in a good chunk of the swing states because young voters are being undersampled in the polls. The polls underestimated Trump support in 2016 because responses from his base weren't weighted enough since he picked up a bunch of first time voters. I think the polls will be off again, but in a way that favors Biden.
 
I read somewhere they historically break 55/45 towards the Republicans. BUT that would stand at odds with polling of independents who have broken for Biden in polling.
 
The real question - what time will Trump declare victory and demand a concession from Biden? Before or after midnight?
 
Shorty said:
Actually, not outside the realm of possibility except that Biden is up big in Wisconsin polls.
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Agree about WI. And this is why AZ and Omaha are so key if Biden loses FL. AZ + Omaha likely get Biden to 270 sometime on Wednesday while PA is still busy counting for the next few days. Also why IA would be a nice pick-up in case Biden's lead in NV evaporated.

FWIW, Nate has AZ, FL, NC and GA with Biden slightly favored and Trump slightly favored in OH, TX and IA.
 
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