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Thread: KP Report: Hokies @ WF -- Sunday 6 pm ACCN

  1. #1

    KP Report: Hokies @ WF -- Sunday 6 pm ACCN

    This Sunday night, will America be watching Brady versus Brees or VT @ WF? Will be a tough call for dozens. For those that follow our Deacs, here is the breakdown for WF's fifth opponent (and 4th straight ranked opponent):

    This season: Didn't take Mike Young to rebuild the Hokies (helps to have lots of transfers -- 4). Despite currently retaining only one player (PG Wabissa Bede) who played a minute for Buzz Williams' last VT team two seasons ago (the 2019 Sweet 16 Hokies), a strong VT team visits the Joel on Sunday. Young's team sits at 10-2 (4-1) with a series of impressive top 100 wins: #5 Villanova in OT, #99 USF by 18, #16 Clemson by 6, #79 Miami by 2, #87 ND by 14 and most recently #26 Duke by 8. VT only two losses are puzzling 20 point home loss to # 47 Penn State and at #27 L'ville by 2. While VT has played a lot of games (12), they have played only 1 true road game (the loss at Louisville). After playing WF, VT returns home to play BC.

    The starting lineup last time out against Duke:

    6-1 Sr. Wabissa Bede -- assist leader; not a scorer, as Bede has scored in double figures once; 27% from 3
    6-2 So. Tyrece Radford -- best rebounding guard in the ACC; 12 boards against Duke; also had 18 points and 5 assists against Duke; 22% from 3; super strong
    6-4 So. Nahiem Alene -- erratic; scored 20 against Villanova; scoreless against ND; can shoot: 38% from 3, 89% from the line
    6-7 Jr. Justyn Mutts -- Delaware transfer, WF offered, averaging 10 ppg and 6 rpg against ACC teams; 33% from 3
    6-9 Jr. Keve Aluma - Wofford transfer, solid post player, scored in double digits in 11 of 12 games, averaging 16 ppg and 6 rpg against ACC teams, 30% from 3

    The bench (look out for shooters!):

    5-10 So. Jalen Cone -- instant offense; love him: from Walkertown; killer that WF missed on him: shoots 41% from 3, leads VT 3 point shots and attempts, if he has space, it's going up
    6-3 So. Hunter Cattoor -- another deadeye shooter, 47% from 3; not great on D
    6-9 Cordell Pemsl -- Iowa transfer, missed the last 3 games with an njury, non-scorer
    6-9 David N'Guessan -- Only other big off the bench, a stiff

    Other player of note:

    6-4 Carter Diarra -- coveted K State transfer, was expected to be a big part of VT's team this year, opted out of the season in early December

    The analytics: VT does the little things to win. They don't turnover the ball over on O (#4 in the ACC in TO%), and they get to the line (#1 in the ACC in FTs per FGA; #2 in the ACC in % of offense from FTs). On defense, they keep teams off the offensive glass (#3 in the ACC in preventing offensive rebounds). That said, VT's interior defense has been below average (ACC teams shot 51% from 2). The Hokies play at a moderate tempo averaging 69 possessions a game in ACC play.

    Bottom line: Young is 6-3 head to head against Forbes, but their head to head record was 3-3 heading into 2019, when Young coached one of the best mid-major teams in recent years -- the 30-5 Wofford team that won 21 straight games, including a 16 point win over Seton Hall to open the tournament and nail-biter loss to KY in the round of 32. That year, ETSU lost Wofford in OT, and then again in the SOCON semis.

    KP projects a 74-67 Hokie win (70 possessions). Watching both WF and VT play Duke in back to back games, the big difference between the two teams against the Devils was VT's ability to keep Duke off the offensive glass and ability to limit turnovers. Duke rebounded 47% of its missed shots against WF and 24% against VT. WF also committed 15 TOs against Duke; VT only committed 10. For WF to have a chance, the Deacs will need to rebound, including keeping Radford off the glass, and protect the ball. Also, WF will need to keep Cone and Cattoor from going off from behind the arc. This is a letdown spot as VT is coming off the Duke win, and the Hokies have only played away from Blacksburg once since November. Would be more optimistic about Sunday's game if Whitt was 100%. Think VT is just a better team, and Young finds ways to win close games. Hope to be wrong, but looks like the Deacs lose to another ranked team.
    Last edited by Pilchard; 01-15-2021 at 01:44 PM.

  2. #2
    Was most impressed with VT against Duke. Hokies made Duke look slow and confused. I donít think we have anyone who can handle Aluma. And not sure our guards will defend Techís quickness. Unless VT is cocky, I see another double digit loss. Wake is improving but still presumably without three key cogs (DuBose, Whitt, Ingraham).

  3. #3
    I don't quite understand how Chris Mack and Mike Young can come into ACC programs and, with virtually no returning starters (what, 1 out of 10?), already be 9-1 & 10-2 with 5 Top 50 wins....while our fans here seem to think we should give Forbes 2 or 3 years to even approach mediocrity. All three are ACC schools and while Louisville is an established basketball "name" it has had major scandal problems in recent years and we should definitely have a recruiting advantage over Virginia Tech. All I read here, though, is how we are making progress....while continuing to lose. Our three wins are against #300 Longwood, #353 Delaware State (who are a combined 3-18 against weak schedules) and D2 Catawba.....which is really to say that so far we have no wins at all.

    I realize that Buzz & Manning were disasters and our fans are ecstatic to have Forbes....or anyone, really....in their place. I guess my question is that, considering what Mack & Young have done immediately after starting with nothing, how long does this blank check for Forbes last? Maybe this concern is premature, but eventually we need to start beating somebody. The ACC is probably weaker this year than it has ever been in its 68-year history. Is it OK for Forbes to go something like 3-15 in the conference this year with no Top 300 non-conference wins while Mack & Young have new teams already ranked in the Top 20? As awful as Buzz & Manning were...and they were awful beyond words...Buzz averaged 4+ ACC wins per year and Manning averaged 5 ACC wins per year.

  4. #4
    Sam "Ace" Rothstein
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    Quote Originally Posted by dw88 View Post
    I don't quite understand how Chris Mack and Mike Young can come into ACC programs and, with virtually no returning starters (what, 1 out of 10?), already be 9-1 & 10-2 with 5 Top 50 wins....while our fans here seem to think we should give Forbes 2 or 3 years to even approach mediocrity. All three are ACC schools and while Louisville is an established basketball "name" it has had major scandal problems in recent years and we should definitely have a recruiting advantage over Virginia Tech. All I read here, though, is how we are making progress....while continuing to lose. Our three wins are against #300 Longwood, #353 Delaware State (who are a combined 3-18 against weak schedules) and D2 Catawba.....which is really to say that so far we have no wins at all.

    I realize that Buzz & Manning were disasters and our fans are ecstatic to have Forbes....or anyone, really....in their place. I guess my question is that, considering what Mack & Young have done immediately after starting with nothing, how long does this blank check for Forbes last? Maybe this concern is premature, but eventually we need to start beating somebody. The ACC is probably weaker this year than it has ever been in its 68-year history. Is it OK for Forbes to go something like 3-15 in the conference this year with no Top 300 non-conference wins while Mack & Young have new teams already ranked in the Top 20? As awful as Buzz & Manning were...and they were awful beyond words...Buzz averaged 4+ ACC wins per year and Manning averaged 5 ACC wins per year.
    I've had some of these same thoughts (albeit to a lesser degree), but then I think about the thin roster, the fact that the thin roster is now depleted, and the 30+ day pause while other programs were still practicing/playing.

    Like it or not, Forbes gets a pass on this season. It's 100% a throwaway. I have confidence that next season will see us much improved.

    Your Mack & Young comparisons are tough. Mike Young's first season saw VT go 16-16 and 7-13 in the ACC... But that was coming off Buzz Williams leaving after a 26-9 (12-6) season at VT. Mack took over after one mediocre year of David Padgett that was still 22-14 (9-9). The cupboards were not nearly as bare at Louisville & Virginia Tech.

  5. #5
    Yeah Mike Young makes no sense. Last year they lost 11 of their last 13 games and his leading scorer wasn't his recruit and then transferred. Cone wasn't his recruit. He got Aluma and Cattoor from his old school. Not really sure how incredible that is. Bennett was .500 across his first 2 years at UVA despite having Mike Scott and Joe Harris. Truth is there are too many variables in recruiting, coaching, and external factors to put someone on some kind of 1 or 2 year litmus test. Hell Manning made the First 4 in year 3 because Collins blew up. Does that mean he was a great coach?

    Forbes can coach. He can recruit. We're going to be good again.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Pilchard View Post
    This Sunday night, will America be watching Brady versus Brees or VT @ WF? Will be a tough call for dozens. For those that follow our Deacs, here is the breakdown for WF's fifth opponent (and 4th straight ranked opponent):

    This season: Didn't take Mike Young to rebuild the Hokies (helps to have lots of transfers -- 4). Despite currently retaining only one player (PG Wabissa Bede) who played a minute for Buzz Williams' last VT team two seasons ago (the 2019 Sweet 16 Hokies), a strong VT team visits the Joel on Sunday. Young's team sits at 10-2 (4-1) with a series of impressive top 100 wins: #5 Villanova in OT, #99 USF by 18, #16 Clemson by 6, #79 Miami by 2, #87 ND by 14 and most recently #26 Duke by 8. VT only two losses are puzzling 20 point home loss to # 47 Penn State and at #27 L'ville by 2. While VT has played a lot of games (12), they have played only 1 true road game (the loss at Louisville). After playing WF, VT returns home to play BC.

    The starting lineup last time out against Duke:

    6-1 Sr. Wabissa Bede -- assist leader; not a scorer, as Bede has scored in double figures once; 27% from 3
    6-2 So. Tyrece Radford -- best rebounding guard in the ACC; 12 boards against Duke; also had 18 points and 5 assists against Duke; 22% from 3; super strong
    6-4 So. Nahiem Alene -- erratic; scored 20 against Villanova; scoreless against ND; can shoot: 38% from 3, 89% from the line
    6-7 Jr. Justyn Mutts -- Delaware transfer, WF offered, averaging 10 ppg and 6 rpg against ACC teams; 33% from 3
    6-9 Jr. Keve Aluma - Wofford transfer, solid post player, scored in double digits in 11 of 12 games, averaging 16 ppg and 6 rpg against ACC teams, 30% from 3

    The bench (look out for shooters!):

    5-10 So. Jalen Cone -- instant offense; love him: from Walkertown; killer that WF missed on him: shoots 41% from 3, leads VT 3 point shots and attempts, if he has space, it's going up
    6-3 So. Hunter Cattoor -- another deadeye shooter, 47% from 3; not great on D
    6-9 Cordell Pemsl -- Iowa transfer, missed the last 3 games with an njury, non-scorer
    6-9 David N'Guessan -- Only other big off the bench, a stiff

    Other player of note:

    6-4 Carter Diarra -- coveted K State transfer, was expected to be a big part of VT's team this year, opted out of the season in early December

    The analytics: VT does the little things to win. They don't turnover the ball over on O (#4 in the ACC in TO%), and they get to the line (#1 in the ACC in FTs per FGA; #2 in the ACC in % of offense from FTs). On defense, they keep teams off the offensive glass (#3 in the ACC in preventing offensive rebounds). That said, VT's interior defense has been below average (ACC teams shot 51% from 2). The Hokies play at a moderate tempo averaging 69 possessions a game in ACC play.

    Bottom line: Young is 6-3 head to head against Forbes, but their head to head record was 3-3 heading into 2019, when Young coached one of the best mid-major teams in recent years -- the 30-5 Wofford team that won 21 straight games, including a 16 point win over Seton Hall to open the tournament and nail-biter loss to KY in the round of 32. That year, ETSU lost Wofford in OT, and then again in the SOCON semis.

    KP projects a 74-67 Hokie win (70 possessions). Watching both WF and VT play Duke in back to back games, the big difference between the two teams against the Devils was VT's ability to keep Duke off the offensive glass and ability to limit turnovers. Duke rebounded 47% of its missed shots against WF and 24% against VT. WF also committed 15 TOs against Duke; VT only committed 10. For WF to have a chance, the Deacs will need to rebound, including keeping Radford off the glass, and protect the ball. Also, WF will need to keep Cone and Cattoor from going off from behind the arc. This is a letdown spot as VT is coming off the Duke win, and the Hokies have only played away from Blacksburg once since November. Would be more optimistic about Sunday's game if Whitt was 100%. Think VT is just a better team, and Young finds ways to win close games. Hope to be wrong, but looks like the Deacs lose to another ranked team.
    We did get blown out by Georgia Tech but this was coming off a long layoff and a game against Catawba. I would say with our depleted roster and limited practices and games we did very well to hang in against UVA , Duke and Louisville. We were in the games until the end which I think is very positive. If we have Sarr and Chaundee who knows where we would be at this point. Roster needs to get replenished. Coaching has kept us in the games.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by DCDeac View Post
    Yeah Mike Young makes no sense. Last year they lost 11 of their last 13 games and his leading scorer wasn't his recruit and then transferred. Cone wasn't his recruit. He got Aluma and Cattoor from his old school. Not really sure how incredible that is. Bennett was .500 across his first 2 years at UVA despite having Mike Scott and Joe Harris. Truth is there are too many variables in recruiting, coaching, and external factors to put someone on some kind of 1 or 2 year litmus test. Hell Manning made the First 4 in year 3 because Collins blew up. Does that mean he was a great coach?

    Forbes can coach. He can recruit. We're going to be good again.
    When VT collapsed at the end of the year, and there were rumors that Nolley wanted out, I thought VT was in for a long rebuild, but was wrong. Aluma has been huge for them. He was a solid player at Wofford, but there was no reason to think he would turn into one of the best big men in the ACC, which he is this year. Also, Young has done a good job developing Radford who is really an usual player in this day and age. He's a 6-2 guard who can't play point and can't shoot from 3. That's seems like a non-contributor, yet he is so valuable to them because he is an amazing rebounder, he plays D and scores garbage points. He was the best player on the floor against Duke. Doesn't hurt to get lucky. With one foot out of the door, Buzz Williams recruited Cone (Manning completely f-d that one up; WF should never lose a local kid to VT in basketball), and Young was able to keep Cone in the fold. Cone is a shooting freak. Guys like that can win games on their own.

    Forbes gets a pass because he was hired late, and was behind others in landing transfers. With that said, WF needs to bring in at least 2 F-C transfers after this season. WF is just not competitive on the boards or scoring inside in the ACC. No matter how good Whitt, Hildreth, McCray and the returning perimeter players are; if Ody and Isiah remain WF's only inside scoring/defending options next year, the results aren't going to be a whole lot different.
    Last edited by Pilchard; 01-15-2021 at 04:52 PM.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by dw88 View Post
    while our fans here seem to think we should give Forbes 2 or 3 years to even approach mediocrity.
    Understand the sentiment and the passion behind it, but I think you undermine your argument with this statement. Maybe Iím wrong but I donít see a lot of people who feel this way. Weíre definitely expecting good things 2-3 years from now.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by DeacDaddy View Post
    Understand the sentiment and the passion behind it, but I think you undermine your argument with this statement. Maybe Iím wrong but I donít see a lot of people who feel this way. Weíre definitely expecting good things 2-3 years from now.
    What is your definition of "good things" in terms of our conference W/L record for, say, the 2022-23 season? That would be Forbes' 3rd year. If the answer is "somewhere between 7-11 & 9-9", that would be my definition of "approaching mediocrity".

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by DeacDaddy View Post
    Understand the sentiment and the passion behind it, but I think you undermine your argument with this statement. Maybe Iím wrong but I donít see a lot of people who feel this way. Weíre definitely expecting good things 2-3 years from now.
    We cannot overestimate the impact of Covid. Some of the players he signed committed without ever ha ing met them face to face, and without them ever having set foot on campus. Forbes is all about relationships, and Covid restrictions really hampered his ability to recruit.

    Secondly, the team lost a solid month. That's a month for a new team learning a new system. Plus, two of our players have not returned to play since. No telling how it affected the team getting back into practice.

    I have no doubt in Forbes' ability to build this program.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by dw88 View Post
    What is your definition of "good things" in terms of our conference W/L record for, say, the 2022-23 season? That would be Forbes' 3rd year. If the answer is "somewhere between 7-11 & 9-9", that would be my definition of "approaching mediocrity".
    It seemed like your argument was that we're going to be this moribund program with no upward trajectory, and that we've all accepted that and made peace with that, and I don't see evidence of people believing either.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by DeacDaddy View Post
    It seemed like your argument was that we're going to be this moribund program with no upward trajectory, and that we've all accepted that and made peace with that, and I don't see evidence of people believing either.
    I stated my thoughts pretty clearly...using actual numbers for reference. And you didn't answer my question. If you accept 7-11 to 9-9 as a 3rd year conference record, then it seems to me that you are accepting & making peace with a "return to mediocrity" as "good things".....which is what you objected to in my earlier post. If you think we need to do better than 9-9 to qualify as "good things", just say so.

  13. #13
    Jesus Christ are you really bitching about our coach 7 games into his tenure? What the fuck.

    There will be plenty of time to debate what our conference record in 2023 should be. Right now itís dumb to argue about it.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by BeachBumDeac View Post
    Jesus Christ are you really bitching about our coach 7 games into his tenure? What the fuck.

    There will be plenty of time to debate what our conference record in 2023 should be. Right now itís dumb to argue about it.
    I'm not bitching about anyone or anything, nor am I arguing about anything. I was just pointing out what Mack & Young have done this year with teams that lost 9 of last year's 10 starters and asking in a calm manner if there was some kind of time for a measurable standard whereby it would be fair to gauge our progress as a basketball program. DeacDaddy & I were discussing the definitions of "a return to mediocrity" and/or "good things". At least I was. I'm still waiting for DeacDaddy's definitions for the two terms. There is no need to get so hyper.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by dw88 View Post
    while our fans here seem to think we should give Forbes 2 or 3 years to even approach mediocrity.
    This is what you said. Whatís your proof?

    Again, I appreciate the passion. But youíre coming out guns blazing like you need to critique these boards for not holding Forbes accountable. And to that I say, what are you talking about?

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by DeacDaddy View Post
    This is what you said. Whatís your proof?

    Again, I appreciate the passion. But youíre coming out guns blazing like you need to critique these boards for not holding Forbes accountable. And to that I say, what are you talking about?
    You cherry-picked half of a sentence as a quote, which omits all perspective regarding what I was saying. I'm not trying to be combative here. I am just trying to get some measurable standards from others by which they think we can fairly gauge the improvement of our basketball program. Measurable being the key word here.

  17. #17
    If you have any questions on if Forbes is the right guy, read this. Once he gets all his guys plugged in, heís going to win a lot of games.

    https://accsports.com/acc-analytics/...nging-rebuild/

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by dw88 View Post
    You cherry-picked half of a sentence as a quote, which omits all perspective regarding what I was saying. I'm not trying to be combative here. I am just trying to get some measurable standards from others by which they think we can fairly gauge the improvement of our basketball program. Measurable being the key word here.
    OK. But that's not what I was doing. You wrote 2 paragraphs worried about the "blank check" we're giving Forbes. The guy who just inherited a train wreck in the midst of a pandemic. You asked if your concern was premature, and I'm just saying it is.

    We all love the Deacs and it's understandably in our DNA to fear the worst. But I believe we're in great shape with Forbes.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by dw88 View Post
    You cherry-picked half of a sentence as a quote, which omits all perspective regarding what I was saying. I'm not trying to be combative here. I am just trying to get some measurable standards from others by which they think we can fairly gauge the improvement of our basketball program. Measurable being the key word here.
    Why do we need fan based KPIs for year 3? Canít we just try to enjoy the ride and analyze as we go?

  20. #20
    Boomer Boy Shorty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeachBumDeac View Post
    Jesus Christ are you really bitching about our coach 7 games into his tenure? What the fuck.

    There will be plenty of time to debate what our conference record in 2023 should be. Right now itís dumb to argue about it.
    Why does that surprise you? There were posters bitching our our new AD his first day on the job.

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