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Thread: Pitt at WF -- 6 pm Saturday ACCN

  1. #1

    Pitt at WF -- 6 pm Saturday ACCN

    To make up for lost games due to the COVID pauses among both programs and throughout the conference (State and BC are on a pause right now), the ACC has moved up the Pitt at WF matchup set for Super Bowl Sunday (February 7) to this Saturday at 6 pm. Here is a snippet on Jeff Capel's Panthers #62 Panthers.

    This season: Pitt entered the season with low expectations as the ACC writers picked the Panthers to finish 13th in the preseason poll (ahead of only BC and WF) as Pitt lost three of their top seven players from last year's last place team. Pitt undershot those low expectations when it opened the season with a bad loss to a terrible St. Francis (PA) team (#267 by 10) and then Pitt lost their best player Justin Champagnie to a knee injury, suspended their best freshman recruit and suffered a COVID outbreak (Capel was among those in the program who tested positive). Despite those craptastic circumstances, Pitt has turned around its season, and now may be the surprise team in the ACC as the Panthers will enter Saturday's contest with an 8-2 mark (4-1 in the ACC) and are just one game back of first place UVA in the ACC standings. To date, Pitt claims top 100 wins over #72 Northwestern (by 1), #89 Miami (by 15), #29 Duke (by 6) and two wins over #44 Cuse (by 3 and by 20). Pitt is 3-0 on the road, and host UNC after playing WF.

    The lineup: In Tuesday's win over Duke, the Panthers started:

    6-3 Jr. Xavier Johnson -- 3 year starter, leader in assists, steals and TOs (2 to 1 A/TO ratio); shoots 32% from 3; averaged 17 ppg in the two wins over Cuse
    6-3 So. Ithiel Horton --Delaware transfer, leader in 3s attempted and made; shoots 35% from 3; held to 4 points in the win over Duke
    6-6 So. Justin Champagnie -- ACC POY candidate; didn't play between Dec. 16 and January 16 due to a knee injury; leading scorer (20 ppg) and rebounder (13 per game); best player on the floor in the win over Duke 31 points, 14 boards, 5 blocks; killed WF in our season-ender last year with 31 points as freshman; ** note that Mucius had his best game of the year too that day with 19 points and 6 boards**
    6-6 Jr. Au'Diese Toney -- team leader in minutes, FT attempts; 17 ppg; 7 rpg, scored 20 in the win over Duke
    6-8 So. Abdoul Karim Coulibaly -- starter, but plays limited minutes, can't score (high game is 6), can't shoot the 3

    Off the bench (their bench sucks):

    6-5 Fr. Femi Odukale -- bricklayer: 32% from the line, 48% from 2, 17% from 3; 2nd on the Panthers in assists; somehow scored 16 against L'ville
    6-4 Sr. Nike Sibande -- Miami (Oh) transfer; only played in 3 games; has scored a total of 14 points this season
    6-10 Fr. Terrell Brown -- 4th year in the Pitt program; can't score (2.4 ppg) or even rebound (2 rbg); Brown just takes up space

    One other player of note:

    6-9 Fr. John Hugley -- best freshman recruit; started early in the year; suspended from the program in December

    The analytics: Start with the good. The Panthers play defense. In ACC games, Pitt leads the conference in defensive efficiency (93.9). Now, some of that appears to be luck as they are holding ACC teams to an unsustainable 24.6% from 3 and 63% from the line (and that's important because Pitt fouls a lot). Pitt's 2 point defense (50%) is in the middle of the ACC, and they don't force a lot of TOs (#13 in the ACC in defensive TO%). Would expect Pitt's defensive metrics to regress as the season goes on, given how horribly ACC teams have shot from 3 and from the line against the Panthers. Pitt's strength on offense is getting to the line. They lead the ACC in FTA per FGA. In Pitt's last two games, they went to the line 37 times against Duke and 32 times against Cuse; like their defense, the Panthers' FT rate is unsustainable. Otherwise, Pitt's offense numbers are weak. In ACC games, they shoot 32% from 3 (#11), 49% from 2 (#12) and 66% from the line (#14). Pitt plays at fairly rapid pace averaging 70 possessions a game (#3 in the ACC in tempo)

    The bottom line: Hard to state this, but Pitt has the best player in the ACC right now in Sophomore Justin Champagnie (a low-rated recruit out of NY). Since returning to play from a knee injury, Champagnie is averaging 27 ppg and 15 rpg. Mucius, and whomever else covers Champagnie (we don't have a lot of great matchups outside of Isaiah) will need to play his best defense of the season to keep Champagnie from rolling. Outside of Champagnie, Toney and Johnson are solid veteran ACC players, but then its a bunch of nothing for the Panthers. Seems like a decent matchup for WF as Pitt is not exceptionally big, and they don't play a lot of pressure D (although that may change after Capel watches tape of the WF/UNC game). If WF can keep Pitt off the line and prevent Champagnie from completely getting off, think the Deacs have a solid chance to pick up win #1 (BTW, this is a flat spot in Pitt's schedule as they are coming off a HUGE win over Duke and have UNC at home next; that said, WF is coming off the max effort UNC game as well). Think this game will be tight, and give the Deacs a solid chance of getting Steve Forbes his first conference win as it looks like Pitt has outperformed their talent to date, unless Champagnie continues on his path to transcendent player status as evidenced by his dominate play in wins over Duke and Cuse in the last week.
    Last edited by Pilchard; 01-22-2021 at 01:21 PM.

  2. #2
    Johnson is the same size as Champagnie so he is a possible match up. We might see Wilkens in effort to keep him off the boards.

  3. #3
    What's the KP prediction? Those are typically pretty accurate.

  4. #4
    Speaking of KP. Wake is a DFL #357 in luck.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by BlackjackMc View Post
    Johnson is the same size as Champagnie so he is a possible match up. We might see Wilkens in effort to keep him off the boards.
    Agreed we have matchup options at least.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by WFU03 View Post
    What's the KP prediction? Those are typically pretty accurate.
    73-69 Pitt

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by BlackjackMc View Post
    Speaking of KP. Wake is a DFL #357 in luck.
    And here I thought wed already hit rock bottom

    Crazy how context is everything. Were struggling to win yet Im optimistic. Under the last two regimes I would have been somewhere between angry and apathetic.

  8. #8
    Need 3 guys to score 15+ and need to somewhat hold the Champagne fella in check, without Ody getting in foul trouble.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by BlackjackMc View Post
    Speaking of KP. Wake is a DFL #357 in luck.
    how is this measured / quantified?

  10. #10
    Here is the KP definition of luck:

    The easiest one to understand is Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a teams actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.

    In other words, a team is "lucky" if it wins a large percentage of games when the raw number of points scored and given up suggest that its record should be worse (winning lots of close games pumps up a team's luck number), and is unlucky if its overall record is worse that it should have been based on the number of points scored and given up. In 2017, Maryland started 20-2, and was rated #1 in KP's "luck" factor. At that point, MD was something like 9-1 in games decided by 6 or less. When asked about KP's Luck rating, MD Coach Mark Turgeon took offense to the Luck rating saying that winning close games had more to do with the way his team played and was coached. MD then went on to lose every close game the rest of the season and finished 24-9.

  11. #11
    Your TV may still be showing Pitt @ BC on the guide as mine does FYI.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by BlackjackMc View Post
    Speaking of KP. Wake is a DFL #357 in luck.
    Just a fraction of an inch on (I think) Daivien Williamson's shot which would have cut the deficit to 3 or possibly 2 (he was fouled on the shot) with about a minute to play.
    Instead it was a turnover, which was followed by a made shot at the other end that put Wake down three scores.

    That's part of "bad luck."

  13. #13
    Can't help but wonder what our acc record would be with ingram and duboise. Have to imagine we pick up two of those unlucky losses

  14. #14
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    I agree with that. And it brings in the issue of late game fatigue due to COVID as well.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ironwill24 View Post
    Can't help but wonder what our acc record would be with ingram and duboise. Have to imagine we pick up two of those unlucky losses
    Ingraham in particular, as he has some size. But alas, he is out until next season.

  16. #16
    Dubose appeared to be legit. He had to be the man at Houston Baptist, so he has experience under pressure. He knows when to step up. His size and strength at SG is NBA level. He showed the ability to score, rebound, dish and steal. He will wear down his match up on D. He doesn't need the basketball to make a difference in the game. He is a "go to" player. I hope he returns this year and next year.

  17. #17
    I feel like oguama gets songaila calls

  18. #18
    Stupid turnovers, not enough rebounds.

  19. #19
    Feels like we're getting dominated but we're still in it. I feel like that's a promising quality

  20. #20
    Rusty Larue
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    Massoud has scored 17 and given up about 20

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