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Pro Hoops Deacs - Jake LaRavia with 89 points in last three games of the season

JuiceCrewAllStar said:
to me, Alondes' success -- moreso than Jake's -- is dependent on getting picked up by a good organization and a good fit

I think Jake's game is a little more diverse and can fit into more places
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Completely agree. Jake can fit on pretty much any roster. He’s exactly what the league prioritizes right now. Alondes should be a nice complementary playmaker off the bench who would work within a good structure for a team with a lot of playmakers and shooters. The Heat would be a good fit but they don’t have a second round pick. The Knicks could use him roster-wise but they a good organizational structure.

Both could land with the Warriors (28, 51, 57) and fit very well but the Dubs would have to get over the Escobar shirt.
 
Saw Laravia is mocked to go 28 to GSW in latest ESPN Mock
 
I’ve seen speculation that Alondes’ meetings haven’t gone well.
 
haven't really seen Alondes on the mocks

the Athletic on Jake is weird because I don't think his strength is volume shooting but I can see teams try to make him into that esp if he struggles his first season with speed
 
His strengths at the next level should be passing, shooting, and maybe defense based on his college stocks.
 
Strickland33 said:
where? or just the escobar shirt
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Don't remember where I saw it, but it could very well be idle gossip based on the Escobar shirt.

Between the Spurs having 4 picks and the Deacs having 2 prospects and a likely UDFA, this is the most excited I've been for a draft in a while.
 
from the previous page:

Alondes Williams, 6-5 senior guard, Wake Forest. “Good passer, but he tries to thread the needle a little too much. He’s built like a truck. The question is whether he can translate to being a point guard at the next level. He had a great year, but he’s not a big-time athlete, and he doesn’t shoot it. You look at his background, he’s always been a winner. He’s just got so many warts. I don’t see the commitment defensively. His visits with teams have not gone well. He has shown in his workouts that if you put a good defender on him with length, he has a tough time. He’s a late second-rounder, maybe.”
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Yeah. And those are valid concerns. I think he would definitely struggle against the kind of long rangy defenders that flourish in the NBA.
 
TenaciousKory said:
haven't really seen Alondes on the mocks

the Athletic on Jake is weird because I don't think his strength is volume shooting but I can see teams try to make him into that esp if he struggles his first season with speed
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eye test tells me Jake can be a volume shooter -- his shot is slick

wish he shot more at Wake
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
eye test tells me Jake can be a volume shooter -- his shot is slick

wish he shot more at Wake
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Reminds me of this tweet. :smh

 
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PhDeac said:
All of us should be excited about the idea of Jake as a 4th option shooting, cutting, and passing in the halfcourt for our favorite team.
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well I don't really think the Bucks are going for him
 
The Bucks are one of the few teams who couldn’t use him because they have Giannis and Portis.


Sam Vecenie at The Athletic has been higher on Jake than everyone else I’ve seen. He has him at #22 in his Top 100 with this writeup.

STRENGTHS
Was not a high-level recruit out of Indiana before choosing to attend Indiana State following a decommitment from SIU Edwardsville. Became a bit of an analytics darling there while making the MVC All-Freshman team in 2020 and second-team All-MVC in 2021. Transferred to Wake Forest for 2022 and became one of the best players on one of the more improved teams in the country. Earned second-team All-ACC honors.
Good size for a combo wing-forward at 6-foot-8. Reasonable length with a 6-foot-10 wingspan and an 8-foot-8 standing reach. Shouldn’t have many problems playing the three and the four. Beyond size, though, it’s all about the feel for the game for LaRavia.Processes the game exceptionally well. Plays within the team concept at a high level, keeping the ball moving along the perimeter and doing his job. Fits better as a role player than as a star player because of his skillset and basketball IQ.
The first key is shooting. He wasn’t a high-volume shooter in college, taking only 2.2 attempts per game from distance. But I have few doubts that he’s going to make shots from 3 in the NBA. Has an exceptionally clean stroke from distance that will have absolutely zero issues transitioning back behind the NBA 3-point line. It’s a set shot that he can one-two step into or take off
the hop, and it has simple, precise mechanics that are easily repeatable. Gets a perfect, clean release on about every ball. Easy energy transfer. High release point. Can slide into them off the hop. Shot prep is terrific, as he’s always ready and aligned toward the rim. Smooth follow through with a flick of the wrist. Clearly has terrific touch. It was honestly bizarre that he didn’t take more of them. If LaRavia has his feet under him and is open, the ball is going in.
Plays off the threat of the shot with real comfort handling the ball. Very crafty with the ball. Plays best as a passer. Dished out nearly four assists per game. Good off a live dribble. Reads what’s happening around him exceptionally well. Sees the double or where the help is coming from and consistently finds cutters or lob threats. Finds creative angles underneath arms or over the top. Can throw skips or bullet passes to open 3-point kickouts. More importantly though, the ball doesn’t stick. His reads are very quick. Processes the game at an exceptionally high level. Always passes up his own shot for the extra look to get a teammate wide open. Will fit in perfectly as a role player in this regard. Doesn’t need to collapse the defense to find assists; he finds them in the flow.
Great finishing craft and touch despite not being overly vertical as an athlete. Also generally moves well without the ball inside the paint. Wake’s offense built some backdoor cutting plays that allowed him to get free lanes to the rim for some explosive two- foot dunks. Made 57 percent of his attempts at the rim in half-court settings, per Synergy. Really high-level footwork with his pivots, which helped LaRavia be one of the more impactful post mismatch threats in college hoops – particularly turning drives into post-ups. Had a hideous-looking hook shot that he’ll likely never use in the NBA but showcased his touch and potential for floaters at the next level.
Made a positive impact on defense. He’s a sharp team defender who is consistently in the right spot at the right time. Very
good anticipation. Reads the play well and gets his hands in there. Obviously had the 2.7 steals and blocks per game, which showcases his reactivity and disruptiveness. Has phenomenal hand-eye coordination. But he battles on that end and has a good understanding of angles and positioning while keeping his chest in front of bigger offensive players. Gets his hands up to contest without fouling. Consistently gets his hands in problem spots for opposing offensive players to get deflections or strips. Wake was drastically better defensively when LaRavia was on the court. They gave up 100.1 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court versus 108.4 when he was off it, per Pivot Analysis. Every other Wake Forest starter actually had a negative impact on Wake’s defense, which is a wild statement of his impact given that he shared the court with them more than anyone else. In ACC play, Wake Forest gave up a hilarious 128 points per 100 possessions when LaRavia was off the court.
WEAKNESSES
Mainly revolves around athleticism. Not the quickest guy in the world. Tested well enough at the combine in terms of agility drills to give some hope but doesn’t always show up on his tape. Got driven in a straight line by quicker guards and wings. Also has very heavy-footed closeouts. It’s the one part of his overall team defense that I hate because he often ends up forcing his teammates into rotation. Needs to work on that part more than even the on-ball side. Has a chance to be a liability in space defensively at the NBA level in big moments if teams can get switches onto him. You want to bet on the feel defensively, and I tend to buy into that more than the quickness concerns. But LaRavia needs to prove that the shiftiest and quickest guards aren’t going to catch him constantly.
Not a great pull-up shooter. Doesn’t even make them off relocation dribbles. Think his rhythm and energy transfer gets a bit screwy and doesn’t have the same flow. Balance is way more off in these settings. Hit five of his 17 attempts off the dribble. On top of that, he also doesn’t separate off the bounce at a high level, meaning most of these pull-up attempts will be contested. Doesn’t have anything of a functional in-between game unless he’s posting. Basically, don’t see him as much of a shot creator for himself. Will likely be reliant upon others creating an advantage for him. Do think he’ll be able to attack closeouts once he gets that advantage because of his comfort as a ballhandler, but more of a role player than a star.
Do wonder if part of the reason he didn’t take more shots off the catch from 3 had to do with the functionality of the shot. Has to square it up at the rim and does take a bit of an extra split second compared to other terrific shooters to get into it. Looks much more comfortable drifting into shots from the right side of the floor off the hop than he does drifting into them and keeping his balance on the left side. Very fixable in terms of base, and I’m a big-time believer in him being a very high-level shooter. But something to track.
SUMMARY
I’ve been high on LaRavia since November and that doesn’t change here. I’m a big-time believer in the idea of getting guys who can shoot and process the game at size. LaRavia is absolutely that. I buy him turning into a higher-volume shooter and buy him as the kind of player whom great players will want on their team because of how the ball doesn’t stick when he’s around. He consistently makes the right decision for his team, even if it’s at the expense of his own numbers or involvement. He shoots it and keeps it moving. Ultimately, where you fall on him defensively is likely where you fall on him in terms of his prospects. If you’re more worried about the quickness and heavy-footed nature of his game, then you probably have him as more of a second- round pick. Personally, I’m willing to bet on the numbers and the anticipation allowing him to not be a liability, which is why I have a first-round grade on him. He might never be a top-four guy on a great team, but he’ll be the kind of player who helps you win and puts your stars in better positions.
 
Here is his take on Alondes at #53:

STRENGTHS
Williams is one of the crazier breakout stories in college hoops this past season. Originally attended a junior college before
committing to Oklahoma. Was a solid role player with the Sooners before transferring for his fifth year to Wake Forest. Broke
out in an insane way, winning ACC Player of the Year while being named first-team All-ACC.
Great size for a lead guard at 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-7 wingspan. Uses that size exceedingly well. As a ballhandler, Williams is not
the shiftiest guy, but he really uses his frame in a great way, then sees over the top of the defense to find open players as a passer.
Does have a good first step that allows him to occasionally just blow by his man. In general, as a ballhandler, Williams just seems
to have something of a hooper gene. He understands the way defenders are going to play him, seems to really understand the
way that they’re leaning and then shifts gears and works off that to gain separation and get into the paint. A lot of spin moves
and crafty little step-throughs with good footwork.
An unbelievably good passer and playmaker. Makes utterly outstanding reads out of ball screens and in the open court. You can
see him processing the game at work when he’s out there. Can throw passes from almost any angle off a live dribble. He’ll throw
scoop passes, long-distance bounce passes, cross-corner kickouts off a no-look with one-hand. He’s also excellent at opening
angles for himself as a passer by attacking constantly and finding his man. Just sees the court in a different way.
And because he can throw live-dribble reads from both hands, Williams’ ability to create angles as a passer is difficult to guard.
He’ll throw them with touch or on an absolute rope to his man. Out of ball screens he’s always looking at the help man on the
backside to see whether to throw the lob or the cross-corner look. He’s more manipulating the defense in these settings than
throwing guys open, but he was excellent at manipulating guys to go where he wanted them to in order to get guys open.
Williams is also a pretty good scorer from 18 feet and in. Good post game against smaller guards. Very effective finisher around
the rim on drives. If he gets a free lane to the rim, it’s going to be a show because he’s going to try to throw it down with authority.
But he also absorbs contact exceedingly well. Rises up off two feet when trying to finish and play through the big and bounces
off while maintaining some elevation and finishing. Made 66.3 percent of his half-court attempts at the rim and created almost
five of them per game, a large number for a guard. I don’t know that I quite see him as being this impactful at the NBA level
because there is a degree of powerful bully ball to his game, but I do think he’ll be a relatively effective finisher. Also has an OK
midrange pull-up game. Made about 44 percent of his 60 midrange shots this past season.
I didn’t love his defensive game this past season, but Williams does a pretty good job guarding up the lineup and has theoretical
potential to be switchable through the three position. His strength stands up well here.
WEAKNESSES
Obviously, there is a real consideration with age. Williams is the oldest player who should on some level expect to be picked
on draft night. How much of his play this past season was simply an older player dominating younger competition? There is a
degree to which you can see that in his game. Some of the bully-ball stuff he does when getting penetration and getting to the
rim won’t fly at the next level.

Williams has two significant areas of concern on offense. First, his shooting ability. I don’t love Williams’ shot at all, off the pull-
up or the catch. It’s very stiff and robotic off the catch. Doesn’t have great shot prep at all. Looks like he’s kind of throwing it up
toward the rim sometimes. He threw up a couple of shots that looked like curve balls this past season, threw up some line-drive
balls. Sometimes he involves his lower half by taking them off the hop. Other times he just takes them off a one-two with no legs.
Not sure he loads it up the same way every time either. Sometimes it seems to come up on the left side of his head, other times
it’s more of a straight load into the shot. There’s just no consistency in where he’s going as a shooter. This jumper feels almost
like a page one rewrite where someone is going to have to rebuild it from the ground up. If he can’t shoot, it’s going to be really
tough for him to play off the ball, which means the margin for error shrinks dramatically.
I have real worries that teams are just going to go under all ball screens on him, force him to try to attack that way into the
middle, then stay at home on shooters. That would be tough for him, because he is also a pretty wild decision-maker at times.
His shot selection from the midrange off the catch was pretty wild this year. He threw up a ton of low-percentage looks for him.
Also finished third nationally in turnovers. Part of that is role, but another part of is that his inherent creativity can sometimes
get the better of him and lead to some wild choices that are low-percentage plays. Can be a bit of a wild card. In the 10 games
he played against Tier A competition this past season, per KenPom, his true-shooting percentage sunk from 57.6 overall to 51.3,
then his turnover percentage skyrocketed from 20.0 to 26.5. Those are some abhorrently bad numbers for a 23-year-old lead
guard.
Finally, Williams was a questionable defender throughout the year. Not always engaged. You can chalk some of it up to his
offensive load, but I think there are some real limitations here too. Struggles badly on closeouts. Think the routes he takes are
horrible and often result in blow-bys. He’s also just not very quick laterally. Quicker guards left him in the dust on the perimeter.
He struggled to get through screening actions. It’s hard for me to buy Williams’ turning into a high-level defender given his lack
of quickness and the fact that he’s older.
SUMMARY
Williams has one of the coolest, best-looking highlight reels of any player in this draft because of his live-dribble passing ability.
But when you start diving into the details, you start to wonder how it all comes together in a way that makes sense in the NBA.
He’s a guy who played a bit of bully ball this past season who struggles to make an impact off-ball because of his shooting issues,
and who doesn’t really defend at a high level. That means he needs to be so good as a playmaker and passer that he sticks in an
on-ball role, and the standard to play in an on-ball role in the NBA is so unbelievably high. Williams’ passing ability at least gives
him a non-zero chance to be able to do it, but I’m skeptical. He’s a good two-way opportunity for a team that could use more
guard depth and is willing to take a flier on his ball skills.
 
I see Draft Kings currently has LaRavia as -160 to be over 27.5 and +130 under 27.5.
 
thatguy2016 said:
Those WF defensive numbers with and without Jake are wild.
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It's certainly interesting, but it's missing the context that Jake played 35.1 minutes per game in ACC play. So the "without Jake" numbers are only about 4.9 minutes per game.

And Jake actually played more than 35.1 in a lot of games, but was way under his average MPG in a few due to foul trouble, Duke and Miami being two of those games, so having a lot of the "without Jake" minutes being against good offensive teams also skews things a bit.
 
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