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#16 NCSU at #12 Wake, 11/13 - 7:30p ACCN

 
Let’s hang 77 on these motherfuckers so we can win 77-72 !!!
 
deachus said:
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OR if NCSU has seen the same stats and Leary runs a bunch.
 
Hard to know how good State is.

They are 7-2. Throw out the non-competitive games against Furman and USF, and look at the other 7 games.

September 11: Dominated by Miss State 24-10
September 25: Beat Clemson in OT 27-21. At the time a signature win, but in retrospect, that was the peak of Clemson's broken offense as the Tigers scored 14 the week before that game against GT and scored 19 against BC the week after.
October 2: Struggled to beat a bad Louisiana Tech team 34-27. LT is 2-7, and they have lost every game since NC State (0-4) by an average of 18 ppg (that includes a loss to Old Dominon)
October 16: State dominated BC 33-7. Great result, but weird game, with game tied 7-7 late in the first half, BC missed a chip shot FG. State kicked a FG just before half, and then to start the 2nd half, BC fumbled a punt resulting in a Pack TD, then threw a pick on the next drive leading to another TD. BC was playing with their backup QB.
October 23: Miami 31 State 30. State gives up 420 yards including 324 yards passing to a freshman QB in his 2nd college start
October 30. State 28 L'ville 13. State is outgained 434-361; State give up 5.2 ypc, but wins as L'ville is stopped on downs three times in State territory in the 2nd half; State also commits no TOs
November 6. State 28 FSU 14. FSU has 20 players out, including starting QB Travis with the flu.

Is State good? Has State been a little lucky with their opponents misfortune? The answer to both questions is probably yes. Good teams take advantage of their opponents misfortune. Notwithstanding the two picks last week, don't think State will win the TO battle. State's offense has been serviceable, but in ACC games, they have topped 30 points once (against BC and that included a fumble return for a TD). State's D has suffered a lot of injuries (5 opening day starters out), but they have gotten it done. That said, the only two competent offenses that State has faced Miami and L'ville gained over 400 yards against the Pack, and WF's offense is on another level from those offenses. Also, since 2003, WF has won 8 of the last 9 against State at home, and that includes some really weak WF teams.

Naturally, WF's injuries are a concern as is WF's mental state after the deflating loss to UNC. That said, WF is the better team; WF has the far more explosive offense; WF has the better coach, and WF is at home (since mid-2019 WF is 11-1 at home, and the one loss was to the Trevor Lawrence led #1 Clemson Tigers to open the 2020 season). Feel like Clawson will rally the team, the defense will hold State to the low 30s, and WF wins 41-31.
 
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I feel like we should win, but definitely worried about the UNC hangover effect and whether our guys will get rattled if the game is close at the end, which, let's face it, it will be.
 
Feels like a bit of a cherry-picked analysis. State outgained Mississippi State in their loss which wasn't dissimilar to their win over Louisville, and feels inconsistent to throw out their drubbing of USF but include their close game against LT.
 
Maybe we should go to a 5 man line. Push our big d tackles to perform. They are not physically overmatched at all. They should be better than they are. Tyler and Kamara. Those guys are good and they need to sack up and show it. Fox can play. Bergan. Play 3 of them. Move Greer to CB and 21 to safety again. Jasir wants to be a pro. Now is where he can show it.
 
diverdeac said:
Maybe we should go to a 5 man line. Push our big d tackles to perform. They are not physically overmatched at all. They should be better than they are. Tyler and Kamara. Those guys are good and they need to sack up and show it. Fox can play. Bergan. Play 3 of them. Move Greer to CB and 21 to safety again. Jasir wants to be a pro. Now is where he can show it.
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Tyler Williams has been injured, did he even play last week?
 
IAppreciateIt said:
Feels like a bit of a cherry-picked analysis. State outgained Mississippi State in their loss which wasn't dissimilar to their win over Louisville, and feels inconsistent to throw out their drubbing of USF but include their close game against LT.
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State at no point looked remotely competitive against MS State. Opening KO was returned for a TD. State's offense moved down the field consistently, sure, but they came up empty on something like 5 red zone possessions.
 
best defense we will have played this year (until next weekend), and two backs who absolutely gashed us last year.

If we have a choice between stopping the run and leaving the secondary exposed vs. letting those guys get 8 yards per carry, I hope we elect to stop the run and make O'Leary throw the ball down the field. Worst case is he hits - but then the defense comes off the field.
 
State's rushing attack is last in the ACC so i hope we can have some success containing it at home
 
thatguy2016 said:
best defense we will have played this year (until next weekend), and two backs who absolutely gashed us last year.

If we have a choice between stopping the run and leaving the secondary exposed vs. letting those guys get 8 yards per carry, I hope we elect to stop the run and make O'Leary throw the ball down the field. Worst case is he hits - but then the defense comes off the field.
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Your comment of State's D being the best Wake has played so far got me curious across the board and per ESPN for total defense in the ACC its 1. NCSU, 2. Clemson, 3. BC.
 
user name said:
Your comment of State's D being the best Wake has played so far got me curious across the board and per ESPN for total defense in the ACC its 1. NCSU, 2. Clemson, 3. BC.
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To be fair part of the reason their defensive stats look so good is none of those team have played Wake yet.
 
Good point, and hopefully we take care of business Saturday night!
 
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