Pilchard
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Deacs return from NW Florida with their first blemish on the record. FWIW, the 6 teams that WF has beaten this year are 5-31 against other D1 teams (not counting Kennesaw State's win over Charleston Southern this weekend as WF played both teams). NW is 5-1; so, a win tomorrow would improve the quality of opponents defeated by a lot. Here is the take on the Wildcats.
Coach Chris Collins: Chrissy was 1-8 against WF as a player, losing his last 8 games against WF in a row. After playing in Finland, and working as an assistant under Tommy Amaker at Seton Hall, Collins was a 13 year assistant under K at Duke before getting the NW job.
2021-22 Season: NW is 5-1 and KP #41. This season has started a lot like last season for NW (last year NW started 6-1 rose to #19 in the AP poll, and then lost 13 straight games -- ouch). Similar to the Deacs, NW has excelled in the bully role this year, beating up on crappy teams (20+ point average margin of victory over teams rated #346, #267, #326 and #172). NW has played one game against a top 100 foe, they were favored, but lost to #66 Providence. NW never led and trailed by as much as 18 before rallying to make the final margin 6. NW has played solid offense with a 55% (#43) effective FG%, a miniscule TO rate (#8), and solid shooting numbers across the board (39% from 3; 54% from 2; 78% from the line). Defensively, NW has effectively defended the paint (44% defensive 2 PT% #53) while also forcing TOs (#76 in TO rate). NW plays a 9 man rotation (#88 in bench minutes), and they generally play at a slow tempo (in #200 in tempo).
The NW Lineup:
The Cats have started the same 5 in each game:
G 6-2 Jr. Boo Buie: Double figures in each game, 23 against Providence; 2nd leading scorer; team leader in assists, threes, TOs; 36% from 3
G 6-5 So. Ty Berry: Shooter -- 38% from 3; held scoreless by Providence; has hit 5 threes in a game this year
F 6-6 Fr. Casey Simmons: surprise starter as a frosh; 4 star recruit; 5 ppg and 3 rpg; 3 for 6 from three
F 6-9 Jr. Robbie Beran: from VA; has steadily improved; 6 ppg and 4 rpg; scoreless last time out against GA
C 6-10 Sr. Pete Nance: highest rated recruit in NW basketball history (#88 in class of 2018), leading scorer (18 ppg), blocks and rebounder (8 ppg), 2nd in assists; can hit from 3 (47% this season)
Bench:
G 6-2 Sr. Ryan Greer: 4th in minutes; 50% from 3; 3rd on team in assists; efficient player (KP offensive rating over 120 each of the last two years)
C 6-10 Jr. Ryan Young: 240 pounds; scored 20 twice this year; 14 ppg and 4 rpg; doesn't shoot threes; 92% from the line
G/F 6-3 Fr. Julian Roper: athletic player, but has yet to show he can score: 3 ppg; 29% FG%
F 6-7 Sr. Eljay Williams: FDU transfer (averaged 13 ppg last year); struggled to start the season 32% FG%; scored 1 point total in the last 3 NW games
Note Jr. G/F Chase Audige, an expected starter, (12 ppg in 2021) has been out to start the year. Not sure when he is expected to return.
Projection: KP projects 73-71 Wildcat win. WF is slightly bigger and more experienced. NW uses its bench more than WF. One edge for the Deacs is that NW has been prone to fouling this year (#225 in defensive FTA per FGA) and WF has been strong at getting to the line (#64 in offensive FTA/FGA). NW has been able to slow teams down on defense, while WF prefers to play with tempo. This is a big game for the Deacs. Got to win home games against middling Power V conference foes (NW is generally picked to finish among the bottom 4 teams in the Big 10). FWIW, Pitt beat NW last year in the ACC Big 10 challenge. These teams are very close in several areas, including schedule to date and overall talent. The game will be tight, but if WF is really going to be a "bubble" team and/or a middle of the pack ACC team, this is a game that the Deacs need to win.
Coach Chris Collins: Chrissy was 1-8 against WF as a player, losing his last 8 games against WF in a row. After playing in Finland, and working as an assistant under Tommy Amaker at Seton Hall, Collins was a 13 year assistant under K at Duke before getting the NW job.
2021-22 Season: NW is 5-1 and KP #41. This season has started a lot like last season for NW (last year NW started 6-1 rose to #19 in the AP poll, and then lost 13 straight games -- ouch). Similar to the Deacs, NW has excelled in the bully role this year, beating up on crappy teams (20+ point average margin of victory over teams rated #346, #267, #326 and #172). NW has played one game against a top 100 foe, they were favored, but lost to #66 Providence. NW never led and trailed by as much as 18 before rallying to make the final margin 6. NW has played solid offense with a 55% (#43) effective FG%, a miniscule TO rate (#8), and solid shooting numbers across the board (39% from 3; 54% from 2; 78% from the line). Defensively, NW has effectively defended the paint (44% defensive 2 PT% #53) while also forcing TOs (#76 in TO rate). NW plays a 9 man rotation (#88 in bench minutes), and they generally play at a slow tempo (in #200 in tempo).
The NW Lineup:
The Cats have started the same 5 in each game:
G 6-2 Jr. Boo Buie: Double figures in each game, 23 against Providence; 2nd leading scorer; team leader in assists, threes, TOs; 36% from 3
G 6-5 So. Ty Berry: Shooter -- 38% from 3; held scoreless by Providence; has hit 5 threes in a game this year
F 6-6 Fr. Casey Simmons: surprise starter as a frosh; 4 star recruit; 5 ppg and 3 rpg; 3 for 6 from three
F 6-9 Jr. Robbie Beran: from VA; has steadily improved; 6 ppg and 4 rpg; scoreless last time out against GA
C 6-10 Sr. Pete Nance: highest rated recruit in NW basketball history (#88 in class of 2018), leading scorer (18 ppg), blocks and rebounder (8 ppg), 2nd in assists; can hit from 3 (47% this season)
Bench:
G 6-2 Sr. Ryan Greer: 4th in minutes; 50% from 3; 3rd on team in assists; efficient player (KP offensive rating over 120 each of the last two years)
C 6-10 Jr. Ryan Young: 240 pounds; scored 20 twice this year; 14 ppg and 4 rpg; doesn't shoot threes; 92% from the line
G/F 6-3 Fr. Julian Roper: athletic player, but has yet to show he can score: 3 ppg; 29% FG%
F 6-7 Sr. Eljay Williams: FDU transfer (averaged 13 ppg last year); struggled to start the season 32% FG%; scored 1 point total in the last 3 NW games
Note Jr. G/F Chase Audige, an expected starter, (12 ppg in 2021) has been out to start the year. Not sure when he is expected to return.
Projection: KP projects 73-71 Wildcat win. WF is slightly bigger and more experienced. NW uses its bench more than WF. One edge for the Deacs is that NW has been prone to fouling this year (#225 in defensive FTA per FGA) and WF has been strong at getting to the line (#64 in offensive FTA/FGA). NW has been able to slow teams down on defense, while WF prefers to play with tempo. This is a big game for the Deacs. Got to win home games against middling Power V conference foes (NW is generally picked to finish among the bottom 4 teams in the Big 10). FWIW, Pitt beat NW last year in the ACC Big 10 challenge. These teams are very close in several areas, including schedule to date and overall talent. The game will be tight, but if WF is really going to be a "bubble" team and/or a middle of the pack ACC team, this is a game that the Deacs need to win.
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