Pilchard
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This Saturday, the Deacs play a nooner at the Donald L. Tucker Center (formerly known as the Tallahassee Leon County Civic Center) at FSU. The Noles now host the Deacs after WF hammered FSU 76-54 at LJVM on January 4. Here is the link to the previous Noles Scouting Report: https://www.ogboards.com/forums/showthread.php/33305-MBB-Game-15-FSU-LJVM-Tuesday-7-pm-RSN-Bally-Sports
FSU Update: FSU currently sits at 13-8 (6-5) #84. When WF dominated FSU on January 4, Davien Williamson and Damari Monsanto did not play. Even so, WF took the lead from FSU at the 12 minute mark of the 1st half through the end of the game, and WF led by double digits the entire 2nd half. Laravia (22 points 10 boards), Williams (20 points, 6 boards, 5 assists) and Sy (16 points 10 boards) led the Deacs. FSU had two double figure scorers that day: Matthew Cleveland (13 points) and Caleb Mills (10 points). WF dominated that game despite committing 22 TOs and shooting 26% from 3.
After that game, the Noles started rolling, winning their next 6 games (5 in the ACC) in a row, including sweeping Miami (by 1 point each time) and beating Duke in OT. Then, injuries hit and losses have mounted. FSU leading scorer Malik Osborn went down in a loss at GT, and then starters Caleb Mills and RayQuan Evans missed the VT game (a 85-72 loss - VT shot a ridiculous 72% from 3 -- Hunter Cattoor was 9 for 11). Last night in a loss at Clemson, Evans (11 points) and Mills (16 points) returned to action, but it wasn't enough to win in Littlejohn.
Against the Tigers, Hamilton rolled out a new starting lineup which included two seven footers:
6-4 RayQuan Evans
6-5 Caleb Mills
6-6 Anthony Polite
7-1 John Butler
7-2 Tanor Ngom
Yes, Leonard Hamilton has found another 7 footer -- Tanor Ngom (from Senegal). NGom didn't play against WF on January 4. In fact, Ngom didn't play between November 24 and January 18, buy he has started the last two, and he appears to have one offensive move -- dunking - Ngom is 19-24 (86%) from 2. Despite FSU's size, Clemson had a +13 rebound margin and +5 TO margin. FSU's current 3 game losing streak has dropped FSU from #53 to 84 in KP. FSU's worst KP rating since 2015.
Projection: KP projects a 73-72 WF win in 69 possessions (WF and FSU played a 78 possession game on January 4). FSU is a desperate team, in need of a win streak to have any hope of receiving a 6th straight NCAA Tourney bid. FSU has been formidable at times this season as they have swept Miami and beaten Duke at home, but FSU is a banged up team that has struggled defensively over the past two weeks giving up an average of 78 points to GT, VT and Clemson, three teams that are rated behind WF in offensive efficiency and tempo. On paper, WF has a ton of edges in this game as WF is the #2 rated ACC team in offense and defense and FSU has dropped to 11 in both categories. WF worked FSU by 22 a month ago, and WF has added Davien and Damari since then. For FSU to turn the tables, it will need to force TOs. WF still struggles with TOs (14th in the ACC), and FSU still forces a lot of TOs (#3 in the ACC). Last Saturday, WF faced a desperate Cuse team, and the more motivated team pulled away. Again, this Saturday, WF goes on the road to play a team fighting for its life. We shall see if the Deacs learned their lesson. Yes, this is getting repetitive, but still like the over (WF has gone over its last 5 games - coinciding with Monsato's return to play; while FSU has gone over its last 3 games). Think WF wins a close one late.
FSU Update: FSU currently sits at 13-8 (6-5) #84. When WF dominated FSU on January 4, Davien Williamson and Damari Monsanto did not play. Even so, WF took the lead from FSU at the 12 minute mark of the 1st half through the end of the game, and WF led by double digits the entire 2nd half. Laravia (22 points 10 boards), Williams (20 points, 6 boards, 5 assists) and Sy (16 points 10 boards) led the Deacs. FSU had two double figure scorers that day: Matthew Cleveland (13 points) and Caleb Mills (10 points). WF dominated that game despite committing 22 TOs and shooting 26% from 3.
After that game, the Noles started rolling, winning their next 6 games (5 in the ACC) in a row, including sweeping Miami (by 1 point each time) and beating Duke in OT. Then, injuries hit and losses have mounted. FSU leading scorer Malik Osborn went down in a loss at GT, and then starters Caleb Mills and RayQuan Evans missed the VT game (a 85-72 loss - VT shot a ridiculous 72% from 3 -- Hunter Cattoor was 9 for 11). Last night in a loss at Clemson, Evans (11 points) and Mills (16 points) returned to action, but it wasn't enough to win in Littlejohn.
Against the Tigers, Hamilton rolled out a new starting lineup which included two seven footers:
6-4 RayQuan Evans
6-5 Caleb Mills
6-6 Anthony Polite
7-1 John Butler
7-2 Tanor Ngom
Yes, Leonard Hamilton has found another 7 footer -- Tanor Ngom (from Senegal). NGom didn't play against WF on January 4. In fact, Ngom didn't play between November 24 and January 18, buy he has started the last two, and he appears to have one offensive move -- dunking - Ngom is 19-24 (86%) from 2. Despite FSU's size, Clemson had a +13 rebound margin and +5 TO margin. FSU's current 3 game losing streak has dropped FSU from #53 to 84 in KP. FSU's worst KP rating since 2015.
Projection: KP projects a 73-72 WF win in 69 possessions (WF and FSU played a 78 possession game on January 4). FSU is a desperate team, in need of a win streak to have any hope of receiving a 6th straight NCAA Tourney bid. FSU has been formidable at times this season as they have swept Miami and beaten Duke at home, but FSU is a banged up team that has struggled defensively over the past two weeks giving up an average of 78 points to GT, VT and Clemson, three teams that are rated behind WF in offensive efficiency and tempo. On paper, WF has a ton of edges in this game as WF is the #2 rated ACC team in offense and defense and FSU has dropped to 11 in both categories. WF worked FSU by 22 a month ago, and WF has added Davien and Damari since then. For FSU to turn the tables, it will need to force TOs. WF still struggles with TOs (14th in the ACC), and FSU still forces a lot of TOs (#3 in the ACC). Last Saturday, WF faced a desperate Cuse team, and the more motivated team pulled away. Again, this Saturday, WF goes on the road to play a team fighting for its life. We shall see if the Deacs learned their lesson. Yes, this is getting repetitive, but still like the over (WF has gone over its last 5 games - coinciding with Monsato's return to play; while FSU has gone over its last 3 games). Think WF wins a close one late.
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