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BBall Recruiting Thread 2k18 - Hoard, Mucius, Lewis, and Wright sign NLIs!

Juice level not understanding that 40% is not the same in all situations.
 
ChaosDeac said:
Yeah, the predictions don't really seem like actual predictions.

I do find it interesting that he rates Illinois as the Ayo favorite with 35% confidence. Not that Illinois is the favorite, just that they've been thought of as a bigger favorite in the past so possibly opinions are changing?
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Yeah. My impression is that Illinois would have been higher on that list 6 months ago. Now their odds keep dwindling.

Speaking of Ayo:

 
PhDeac said:
Yeah. My impression is that Illinois would have been higher on that list 6 months ago. Now their odds keep dwindling.

Speaking of Ayo:


distant looking hug between Mack and Ayo. He aint going to X
 
So, in 09's world having a 40% chance to win a basketball game is the same likelihood 40% to win a 10 horse race with next best chance at 15% or 40% to sign someone against six other schools with the next pick at 25%.

In two of the three, 40% puts you in the driver's seat. In the other, you are big underdog.

But keep trying...
 
Seems like there are a lot less people in that photo than the Wake Forest in home visit photo with Ayo.
 
RJKarl said:
So, in 09's world having a 40% chance to win a basketball game is the same likelihood 40% to win a 10 horse race with next best chance at 15% or 40% to sign someone against six other schools with the next pick at 25%.

In two of the three, 40% puts you in the driver's seat. In the other, you are big underdog.

But keep trying...
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So much wrong. Again. And again. Just give it up, RJ.
 
RJKarl said:
So, in 09's world having a 40% chance to win a basketball game is the same likelihood 40% to win a 10 horse race with next best chance at 15% or 40% to sign someone against six other schools with the next pick at 25%.

In two of the three, 40% puts you in the driver's seat. In the other, you are big underdog.

But keep trying...
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I spoke too soon
 
YankeeInAtlanta said:
Seems like there are a lot less people in that photo than the Wake Forest in home visit photo with Ayo.
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Four family/friends for Xavier. Six for Wake. Three for Illinois.

"Hey, you want to meet Danny Manning?" vs. "Hey, you want to meet Chris Mack?" and "Hey, you want to meet Brad Underwood?"
 
Can't really tell bc of the lighting, but it looks like Ayo is decked out in old gold & black :cool:
 
I think RJ's original argument was that a 40% chance to win a single basketball game is a long shot because if you looked at the ACC teams' conference win % at the time, there were only like 4 out of 15 teams with a conference win % <= 0.4. I think.

RJ's war against stats is just incredible.
 
Demonwolverine said:
Can't really tell bc of the lighting, but it looks like Ayo is decked out in old gold & black :cool:
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Dress is another difference. Ayo's friends/family dressed nicer for the Wake visit. Manning wore a suit as well.
 
PhDeac said:
Yeah. My impression is that Illinois would have been higher on that list 6 months ago. Now their odds keep dwindling.

Speaking of Ayo:


 
The contrast in the pictures really is telling. His fam/friends almost look uncomfortable around Mack.
 
PhDeac said:
Yes. He was a mystery recruit. A poster saw him at a local buffet and said something like, "I don't know much about him, but he moves well around a buffet table."
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Hilarity ensues!!!
 
Ayo said:
I think RJ's original argument was that a 40% chance to win a single basketball game is a long shot because if you looked at the ACC teams' conference win % at the time, there were only like 4 out of 15 teams with a conference win % <= 0.4. I think.

RJ's war against stats is just incredible.
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You don't understand sports or the reality of context.
 
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