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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

Childress is a mid-major level guard. Woods doesn't play defense. Wilbekin is a midget. Crawford is the only one who fits your description and he's checked out half the time.

The two guards we have coming in are no better than the four we have.

Disagree. Crawford has all ACC talent. One would hope a proper coach could get that out of him.
Childress is an average starting ACC guard. Could be better as a senior.
Wilbekin should play less but is a good guy to have on your bench as a zone buster or when in need of a 3 pointer. Every team needs one of these. He just gets too much run since Danny loves the 3-ball.
Woods is plenty productive. Defense could be better but he is hardly a complete bust on defense.

Play em 2 at a time and you will see our problems are elsewhere. The 4 and the tall suit.
 
Disagree. Crawford has all ACC talent. One would hope a proper coach could get that out of him.
Childress is an average starting ACC guard. Could be better as a senior.
Wilbekin should play less but is a good guy to have on your bench as a zone buster or when in need of a 3 pointer. Every team needs one of these. He just gets too much run since Danny loves the 3-ball.
Woods is plenty productive. Defense could be better but he is hardly a complete bust on defense.

Play em 2 at a time and you will see our problems are elsewhere. The 4 and the tall suit.

I agree that they play too much. They play too much because they're not good enough to be getting the amount of playing time they get. ND played 3 & 4-guard sets all the time last year and it worked because they had better guards.

I already agreed with you about Crawford.

Wake Forest was Brandon's only Power 5 offer. You can say it's because everyone knew he was going to Wake, but he has a number of mid major and a couple of Ivy League offers. If ye's an average ACC guard at his size and at 9.1 points per game, so is Wilbekin at the same size and 9.0 points per game with the same number of minutes. I definitely hope he's better as a senior (and junior) because he's had lots of on the court practice to improve. He's shooting 38% from the field FFS.
 
I'm in the camp for giving Manning next year, but even I can't get behind any type of "this was what we should have expected" argument with this team. If your goal was just to win games - not develop players, not fulfill promises to transfers or seniors, not stubbornly throw wild lineups out there game after game, etc. - there's no way we'd have only one player averaging 30 minutes.

Thompson was an unmitigated disaster, yet he's 3 minutes per game under Chaundee's average. Sarr and Mitchell may stink it up right now, but they're at least as good as him and they have a future. The only rational sense I can make of Thompson's stranglehold on the starting position is that to get him to come here it was promised to him. In multiple games Sarr's hit the table under the 2 minute mark. Who starts 29 games but gets subbed that quickly? And if Woods leaves the program for another school when we have Hoard and Mucius coming in, you have to believe it's because he watched Wilbekin start over him all year despite the fact that he's twice the basketball player Wilbekin is. Did Crawford and Woods struggle a little to figure out roles in the 5 games they started together? Sure. And if you absolutely half to play Wilbekin 25 minutes a game does it make sense to make him a 6th man? Yes.

I find it interesting that you can write the above and still be in the camp for giving Manning another year. I know you are very astute in your assessment of our team's play, and I understand the argument about giving him next year to prove that he can utilize the ostensibly more talented players he has coming in. But with the prospect of Woods leaving -- and even the chance Craw might leave -- and having to bring in another grad x-fer, won't Danny fall right back into his habit of over-promising in order to secure a commitment to the program? Is it any wonder really that Woods wants to leave when he was probably promised similar starting minutes after patiently waiting an entire year before actually getting to lace 'em up for the Deacs? And compared to Wilbekin and Chill's select abilities, I would be pissed too if I were Key as he can create shots and force teams to adjust game plans, unlike the former.

It just doesn't seem like you have much confidence in DM to reverse course on many of his questionable coaching habits, especially his management of the minutes distribution. What happens when we're deficient at the 2 next year because Danny stubbornly refuses to let Brown play there or we go "small" too often with Childress running point for a Crawford (at the 2 because the grad x-fer won't be close to in his league), who is too hell-bent on raising his stock for the NBA, thus hampering potential team chemistry? Is Hoard even suited to play the 4 at the next level when he may still need to work on his shot and become more of a stretch-4 threat who can complement Moore, who will surely be good enough (as a "dominant 5", your words) to command more touches and force teams to double? Or will our lack of outside shooting consistency allow teams to simply sag into a packed in zone next year and frustrate us without fail?

Just seems like an awfully lot of things that will have to gel or fit together just right in order for us to have a good season (17-20 wins) let alone make the tourney and win a game or two. Why are folks so scared of bringing in another coach? Can things really get much worse? Are you willing to sacrifice another 4 years for one hopefully better than expected result next year? Many of y'all who are so adamant about keeping Danny make many of the same arguments the "pessimists" are making with respect to Manning's coaching foibles and follies. Old tigers rarely change their coaching stripes, especially when they are trying to force a blue-blood program blueprint at a school that can't "keep up with the Joneses" in the recruiting game, for lack of a better cliche. I wanted to see Manning succeed as much as the next guy and I refrained from premature and harsh criticism the first two years to wait and see. But like many who are quite persistent in their adamant stance to move on from Manning, I just don't see him changing or improving much, outside of having a couple more players with size and versatility that he may or may not utilize correctly. I'd prefer getting a coach who can actually coach within the game and not rely so heavily on fiddling with lineups in the desperate hope that the players will figure it out for him, before we dig the hole of dour mediocrity even deeper.
 
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I'm in the camp for giving Manning next year, but even I can't get behind any type of "this was what we should have expected" argument with this team. If your goal was just to win games - not develop players, not fulfill promises to transfers or seniors, not stubbornly throw wild lineups out there game after game, etc. - there's no way we'd have only one player averaging 30 minutes.

Thompson was an unmitigated disaster, yet he's 3 minutes per game under Chaundee's average. Sarr and Mitchell may stink it up right now, but they're at least as good as him and they have a future. The only rational sense I can make of Thompson's stranglehold on the starting position is that to get him to come here it was promised to him. In multiple games Sarr's hit the table under the 2 minute mark. Who starts 29 games but gets subbed that quickly? And if Woods leaves the program for another school when we have Hoard and Mucius coming in, you have to believe it's because he watched Wilbekin start over him all year despite the fact that he's twice the basketball player Wilbekin is. Did Crawford and Woods struggle a little to figure out roles in the 5 games they started together? Sure. And if you absolutely half to play Wilbekin 25 minutes a game does it make sense to make him a 6th man? Yes.

But I'd be very, very dubious of any claim that if we'd played Crawford/Woods/Brown/Moore basically as many minutes as is reasonable - with the core 3 at 30+ minutes a game like the vast majority of other ACC teams - we'd have a more cohesive unit that would have won more games. Sure, you still have to bite the bullet and probably start Sarr all year in a very reduced role, but when those two guy's minutes combined didn't sniff Chilldress or Wilbekin minutes on the year... Well if we were going to suck then that wasn't a great use of minutes.

It's not that I don't get the plan (I think) - Manning's dream is a deep team of athletic wings/SF types and a dominant big sprinkled with 3 point shooters. And it's true that there have been a lot of really great teams (thinkin of UNC, Kansas, etc.) that made deep tourney runs thanks to depth and versatility. But if you're going to turn bad seasons into awful ones because you don't adjust to the personnel, there'd better be a nice payoff when you do get the type of team you want. We'll have talent and depth everywhere next year, even with Woods leaving. Craw/Chill is an elite point guard combo, Chaundee was a huge recruit and has all the tools, Moore is a dominant 5, Hoard is an NBA player, and you get to mix in Sarr, Mucius, Melo, Mitchell, etc. to add the versatility to the squad.

The story will either be 2 NCAA's in his first 5 years after taking over a complete dumpster fire, or another ACC coach on the hot seat with one brief run of great play by John Collins as the only bright spot.

Pretty much agree with all of this.
 
Good article by DC, and no rational Wake fan could possibly disagree that it is spot on.

That said, we might as well accept that DM will be back next year unless he knocks off a bank, gets caught with kiddie porn on his computer, or really pisses off a big ticket giver like Mit Shah.

The fact is (1) Wake would shy away from paying the multiple millions required to replace the men's Bball staff at a time they are also investing tens of millions into facility upgrades, (2) DM runs a clean program and the players' off court behaviors fulfill Wellman's/Hatch's expectations, (3) Wellman has shown great patience before with head coaches whose programs meet parameter #2 (example, Jim Caldwell), and (4) it's doubtful Wellman would risk making any coaching change until this FBI thing plays out as long as his hand is not being forced by external forces.

Thank God for spring football.....
 
Meanwhile State just blew out Fl State at home and on a 4 game win streak with 20 wins with a coach in his 1st season.
 
Meanwhile State just blew out Fl State at home and on a 4 game win streak with 20 wins with a coach in his 1st season.

I was told we aren't allowed to compare Manning to Keatts because Keatts had more talent in Year One. Nevermind Manning is in Year Four.
 
Manning sucks and needs to go at the season. Two more games under this bonehead coach is all WF fans should have to endure. Read Dan Collins’ blog. He hits the nail on the head.
 
I was told we aren't allowed to compare Manning to Keatts because Keatts had more talent in Year One. Nevermind Manning is in Year Four.

lol.. maybe whoever told you that should also bet their account on us making the tourney next year ;)
 
I was told we aren't allowed to compare Manning to Keatts because Keatts had more talent in Year One. Nevermind Manning is in Year Four.

Keatts is having success earlier than expected, so next season he earns a pass to be one of the worst in the conference. Did I get that right?
 
I find it interesting that you can write the second paragraph of this post and still be in the camp for giving Manning another year. I mean I understand the argument about giving him next year to prove that he can utilize the ostensibly more talented players he has coming in. But with the prospect of Woods leaving -- and even the chance Craw might leave -- and having to bring in another grad x-fer, won't Danny fall right back into his habit of over-promising in order to secure a commitment to the program? Is it any wonder really that Woods wants to leave when he was probably promised similar starting minutes after patiently waiting an entire year before actually getting to lace 'em up for the Deacs? And compared to Wilbekin and Chill's select abilities, I would be pissed too if I were Key as he can create shots and force teams to adjust game plans, unlike the former.

It just doesn't seem like you have much confidence in DM to reverse course on many of his questionable coaching habits, especially his management of the minutes distribution. What happens when we're deficient at the 2 next year because Danny stubbornly refuses to let Brown play there or we go "small" too often with Childress running point for a Crawford (at the 2 because the grad x-fer won't be close to in his league), who is too hell-bent on raising his stock for the NBA, thus hampering potential team chemistry? Is Hoard even suited to play the 4 at the next level when he may still need to work on his shot and become more of a stretch-4 threat who can complement Moore, who will surely be good enough (as a "dominant 5", your words) to command more touches and force teams to double? Or will our lack of outside shooting consistency allow teams to simply sag into a packed in zone next year and frustrate us without fail?

Just seems like an awfully lot of things that will have to gel or fit together just right in order for us to have a good season (17-20 wins) let alone make the tourney and win a game or two. Why are folks so scared of bringing in another coach? Can things really get much worse? Are you willing to sacrifice another 4 years for one hopefully better than expected result next year? Many of y'all who are so adamant about keeping Danny make many of the same arguments the "pessimists" are making with respect to Manning's coaching foibles and follies. Old tigers rarely change their coaching stripes, especially when they are trying to force a blue-blood program blueprint at a school that can't "keep up with the Joneses" in the recruiting game, for lack of a better cliche. I wanted to see Manning succeed as much as the next guy and I refrained from premature and harsh criticism the first two years to wait and see. But like many who are quite persistent in their adamant stance to move on from Manning, I just don't see him changing or improving much, outside of having a couple more players with size and versatility that he may or may not utilize correctly. I'd prefer getting a coach who can actually coach within the game and not rely so heavily on fiddling with lineups in the desperate hope that the players will figure it out for him, before we dig the hole of dour mediocrity even deeper.

These are good points and could all end up being true. I have a few beliefs which differ from many on the board, most of which are just from playing basketball my whole life, passing on an opportunity to play in college, but being in the AAU circuit, summer leagues, around coaches, etc.

1) Talent wins. 9 times out of 10 a program being "coached up" actually has real talent, UVA being the best example of this. Bonzi Wells got hurt and Notre Dame's season was over. Look at Clawson. Put in the work on the recruiting trail and results follow. Basketball is 5 guys on the court with the NBA looming every year, so it's a volatile situation year-to-year, particularly when rebuilding. I get a lot of flack for blaming players on this board which I'm fine with.

2) The most disastrous thing that can happen to Wake as the smallest BCS school in the country is to end up with a great X's and O's guy who can't recruit. See the Bzzaster to some extent. Imagine a lovable version of him that players enjoy and the administration fawns over but never makes the 2nd weekend in 10+ years. This is the Wes Miller downside argument. And it has to be the head coach - Battle was supposed to recruit and Bz would coach, how'd that work out.

3) Don't move the goalposts. Less than 5% of the boards thought we'd make the tournament in year 3 but we got a bid. Imagine this year with Collins and Dinos - two decisions that easily could have gone the other way. Nobody would have even the slightest desire to fire Manning except whoever posts "Black Bz" all over the boards I guess. The goal is Sweet 16's, Final 4's, a National Championship. Give me the Hoards and Chaundees with the occasional hit on a guy like Collins plus mediocre coaching any day of the week to get there. So what if our down year is awful instead of just bad. It's frustrating, sure, and there needs to be a payoff. Read the Strick posts about talent level measurements - the reverse course is to find a needle in a haystack coach who coaches far beyond his talent level. People thought Shaka was that guy, but now maybe not so much.

Did Skip waste some talent? Sure. But you have to have talent to waste it. I don't think the gameday outcome of Roy Williams coaching your team is drastically different than Danny Manning or Skip Prosser. Especially when you start trying to break it into wins and losses or a point total. It just doesn't matter as much as some here think. To me it looks like Manning is putting in serious work on the recruiting trail and is focusing on getting guys paid to play basketball. It's not fan-focused. He's not going to jump up and down screaming on the sideline. But he's also a millionaire NBA/College legend who for some reason spent 10 years paying his dues to be able to run a program like Wake, so I imagine his goals are nothing short of a title. He's not Pastner at GaTech saying he's just happy to be here and hoping to compete with the big dogs. I really don't care if Manning overcomes his coaching deficiencies through recruiting or assistant coaching or whatever. I just think overcoming those deficiencies is easier than a new hire at this point, particularly if that new hire is an "up-and-comer" who will struggle to recruit. Maybe that changes next year if Manning doesn't have us back in the tourney.
 
whoa don't compare Danny to Skip in terms of gameday coaching
 
As the smartest person on the boards, WES has my recommendation

Let's go get him
 
These are good points and could all end up being true. I have a few beliefs which differ from many on the board, most of which are just from playing basketball my whole life, passing on an opportunity to play in college, but being in the AAU circuit, summer leagues, around coaches, etc.

1) Talent wins. 9 times out of 10 a program being "coached up" actually has real talent, UVA being the best example of this. Bonzi Wells got hurt and Notre Dame's season was over. Look at Clawson. Put in the work on the recruiting trail and results follow. Basketball is 5 guys on the court with the NBA looming every year, so it's a volatile situation year-to-year, particularly when rebuilding. I get a lot of flack for blaming players on this board which I'm fine with.


Did Skip waste some talent? Sure. But you have to have talent to waste it. I don't think the gameday outcome of Roy Williams coaching your team is drastically different than Danny Manning or Skip Prosser. Especially when you start trying to break it into wins and losses or a point total. It just doesn't matter as much as some here think. To me it looks like Manning is putting in serious work on the recruiting trail and is focusing on getting guys paid to play basketball. It's not fan-focused. He's not going to jump up and down screaming on the sideline. But he's also a millionaire NBA/College legend who for some reason spent 10 years paying his dues to be able to run a program like Wake, so I imagine his goals are nothing short of a title. He's not Pastner at GaTech saying he's just happy to be here and hoping to compete with the big dogs. I really don't care if Manning overcomes his coaching deficiencies through recruiting or assistant coaching or whatever. I just think overcoming those deficiencies is easier than a new hire at this point, particularly if that new hire is an "up-and-comer" who will struggle to recruit. Maybe that changes next year if Manning doesn't have us back in the tourney.

Thanks for responding thoughtfully and without being defensive or overly contentious...this is the kind of dialogue that I think separates our fan-base from your typical school, public #filth or private (see the Fighting Illini delusion board), but apart from all that, you make some good points that lay out the challenge for a school of Wake's size. Talent is certainly 85-90% of the formula, but I think you would agree that we will always fight an uphill battle there. Even in our best years, we've always been thin on depth and relied heavily on 6 and 7-man rotations. So it seems funny to me that Danny seems to be so enthralled with entertaining 8-10 man rotations where the experience and talent quotients are severely questionable. I didn't mind the first couple of years as I knew our talent was severely lacking and we were playing a lot of young players. But even when we were exceeding expectations to a degree in year 2 -- upsetting the likes of IU and UCLA -- we still had the frustration of Manning trying to make TVH into the next Great White Hope and stealing minutes from the likes of a young John Collins, who should have had more rope to hang himself in the fouls department. So what if he fouled out more? We weren't supposed to win on paper.

See it's stuff like this that makes me worried as these types of questionable decisions keep manifesting themselves over and over and over, no matter what the personnel. And then on top of the weird minutes management, we are seemingly pounding round pegs into too-small square holes with respect to our offensive sets. Danny is stubborn and rigid when it comes to adjusting game plans unless we are going against a Syracuse-type team who plays one way religiously because a) they can due to better talent and b) they have a legendary coach (love him or hate him) who gets results with less even when that talent might be a bit thin (the last two years notwithstanding). Danny has barely implemented a 2-3 zone in four years and gave up ostensibly on a match up zone concept that was seemingly helping the team right the ship earlier in the year. He obviously falls back on a 4-guard offense and we still chuck almost as many threes as we did last year when we had a guy in the middle scoring 20 ppg. No matter how much Doral improves, he will never come THAT close to being John Collins. Therefore, if Hoard isn't 85-90% of the player we think he is, we will probably be staring down the barrel of another 12-16 win season.

And to your point about scrapping it now in favor of a young up and comer, I know what you're saying and I'm not sure on that either. I'm more in the camp of bringing in a guy like Crean, who has shown he can take talent into the 3rd round of the NCAA and see what he can do with this roster. I think the chances of holding onto Hoard and Mucius are a lot greater with a veteran coach like Crean than say Wes Miller or Kelsey, who may be perceived as incoming talent as more of a "restart button" option for the program. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but I'm tired of the "re-sets" with less than proven coaches when we probably should have hired a guy like Jamie Dixon after Pitt foolishly fired him for one bad season. The guy can flat out coach and I shouldn't have to hope above all hope that Wellman is smart enough to recognize that type of coaching talent who can make a difference when the recruiting deck is stacked against you in a power conference with traditional blue bloods who will ALWAYS have more talent, even if you have your "dream" FIVE in the fourth or fifth year of the cycle.

I know the plan was to get "more with less" with Coach Redacted, but my God, why is our AD so oblivious as to how to lure the next Skip Prosser or Tom Crean or Jamie Dixon to this University??


ETA: I realize Dixon wasn't available when we were hiring in 2014, but would have been nice to get someone of his ilk. Perhaps we put too many eggs in the "snag Shaka" basket and didn't have the right game plan once again (think Brad Stevens? vs Redacted) in the event that plan came up short. I feel like we'll go through this again at the end of next year, and then again in 2024 as long as Wellman is around.
 
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Jamie Dixon wasn't fired from Pitt. Far from it. He flirted with a number of jobs towards the end of his tenure at Pitt but TCU made him an offer he couldnt refuse.

I understand the "talent is the most important" argument, but I'm tired of watching a team with inverse synergy (instead of 2+2=5 we have 2+2=-1) and no discernible strategy or philosophy in Year 4.

Keep in mind this is the same coach who claimed we would "hang our hat on defense" in his press conference and recruited this roster which many point to as talent deficient.
 
Jamie Dixon wasn't fired from Pitt. Far from it. He flirted with a number of jobs towards the end of his tenure at Pitt but TCU made him an offer he couldnt refuse.

Oh that's right, TCU is his alma mater and he felt like he probably needed a change of scenery after his sister died. Still the point stands, it should NOT be this hard for a school like WFU to find its Jamie Dixon or Kevin Keatts or Tony Bennett. Then again, maybe we're just tilting at windmills and we will never be able to consistently compete within the revamped and expanded ACC.
 
Keatts should be ACC COY. Great hire by the wolpfack.

Meanwhile DM's record is headed in the opposite direction. :(
#coachingmatters
 
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