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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

Agree with Racer that just eliminating S1 and S2 from analysis doesn’t make sense. WFU Lurker did a great job several pages back discussing just how terrible S2 was, providing context (returning players, adding strong recruiting class, preseason expectations). Honestly all the shit years kinda run together to me but between S2 and S4 is sufficient evidence that he ain’t the guy, irrespective of what happened in S3.
 
in retrospect, you could see how season 3 (at the time) would seem like a step forward, but after this season it seems more like the anomaly

AND we probably should have been a legit in the tournament squad last year

our defense was turrrible
 
RacerDeac said:
In a world where S1/S2 are completely excused and ignored, I guess I understand how he considers everyone else to be reactionary. But that world only exists in his head.
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I have explained why S1/S2 weren’t likely to be very predictive of Manning’s future. People that expected (at the time or retroactively) for Manning to produce results in Y1 are the same people who think Manning took over a better situation to Keatts because [Redacted] had a better W/L record in his final year than Gottfried. I’ll listen to arguments for what results Manning should have produced in Y2 onward though based on the talent he inherited compared to other similar rebuilds I feel comfortable with my treatment of Y2
 
RChildress107 said:
I’ve explained ad nauseum over the past four years that I don’t care about Manning’s ability to win 14 vs 11 games with shit talent, that he should be afforded the freedom to do whatever he needed to do to deliver results beginning in year 3, even at the expense of wins and losses, and that building a talent base takes time. I compared his first two years to similar rebuilds, demonstrated with data why the situation he took over was worse, and outlined what specific results I expected in years 3 and 4.

I’ve spent far too many words dismantling the claims made in your second paragraph, using actual data, and defending my conclusions. If you really want me to rehash these arguments and are willing to engage with them let me know. Or just fee free to post your own expectations and defend them as reasonable.
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Based on the responses to your posts, you’re not nearly as effective as you think you are in terms of dismantling these types of claims.
 
RChildress107 said:
I think there’s a lot of projecting going on here. Y’all want me to claim that my conclusion is the only reasonable one, that Manning is clearly the guy, y’all are idiots for not agreeing with me, that he has no flaws, that this season isn’t his fault, that there’s no chance he fails again next year, and that I’m willing to bend my argument and contradict myself at every turn to go to bat for Manning. If I did it would be far easier to justify your own absolutism. It’s not going to happen.

I’m also not going to claim that statistics provide certainty. That would be silly.
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So you want us to prove why Manning is a bad coach, but you don't want to prove why he's a good coach because UNCERTAINTY!! Hahaha this is silly.

It cannot be summarized better than what Racer wrote a few posts above.

I guess it doesn't matter cuz we're probably stuck with Danny for now. A much greater problem may be the uncertainty surrounding Ron Wellman's retirement. Since he may be a vampire, we could be screwed. I'll hope Hoard is a transformational player, but I won't be holding our breath for the team to suddenly realize how to "just guard your man" and ascend to the top 1/3 (hell I'd settle for top 9) of the conference. In close games where coaching matters, we will more often fail to produce the results. Of course, our sked could be favorable and maybe just maybe we get to 19 wins and a bubble berth back to the First Four! Hooray!

PS -- the 2019 class better be damn good...doesn't have to have an Aminu or Chris Paul, but we better get 3 players all in the Top 100-125 or else we're just gonna keep chasing this elusive thing called progress till we're all so demoralized we stop watching and posting.
 
Danny is a bad coach because he’s 54-72 (20-52) in year four of an ACC coaching job.
 
buckets said:
in retrospect, you could see how season 3 (at the time) would seem like a step forward, but after this season it seems more like the anomaly

AND we probably should have been a legit in the tournament squad last year

our defense was turrrible
Click to expand...

“Yeah Manning exceeded expectations but he really should have exceeded them by even more.”

“Why?”

“Because the team Manning put together was actually way better than it’s results indicated.”

So Manning exceeded expectations so much that he actually didn’t exceed expectations?”

“Um... there will never be another John Collins!”
 
How do you lose those early season games with his 4 guard dream line up and think "self. We might have a chance to win if I go with my patent pending 4 guard line up. And okeke. He's the spark plug we need. <self high five> we got this."

As others have said, if he improves coaching this off season it'll be the first he has shown. No wonder the players make the same dumb and stubborn mistakes. "I learned it from watching you coach."
 
Strickland33 said:
Danny is a bad coach because he’s 54-72 (20-52) in year four of an ACC coaching job.
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No he’s 11-19 (4-14) in year 4 of an ACC coaching job. That’s a great argument for why he’s a bad coach.

He was also 19-12(9-9) in year 3 of an ACC coaching job after taking over for the worst ACC coach of all time who left the program depleted of talent. That’s a great argument against him being a bad coach.
 
RChildress107 said:
No he’s 11-19 (4-14) in year 4 of an ACC coaching job. That’s a great argument for why he’s a bad coach.

He was also 19-12(9-9) in year 3 of an ACC coaching job after taking over for the worst ACC coach of all time who left the program depleted of talent. That’s a great argument against him being a bad coach.
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19-12 is a great argument against him being a bad coach? Why? Plenty of bad coaches post 19-12 records when they have John Collins-caliber players (one of the most productive and efficient big men in college basketball history, fwiw).

ETA: We were worse in season 4 than in seasons 1 or 2. What does that suggest?
 
deaconson said:
How do you lose those early season games with his 4 guard dream line up and think "self. We might have a chance to win if I go with my patent pending 4 guard line up. And okeke. He's the spark plug we need. <self high five> we got this."

As others have said, if he improves coaching this off season it'll be the first he has shown. No wonder the players make the same dumb and stubborn mistakes. "I learned it from watching you coach."
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Ya, looking at the mins distribution of the game last night (I thankfully did not watch in favor of a "happy" ending on The Bachelor), seems like Chaundee was essentially playing the 4 when he actually got to play since the 4-headed guard monster ate up 119 of the 120 mins at the 1-3. So Brown got to play all of 17 mins and we failed to attack the heart of their zone like we did vs Cuse at home??

Sounds like Danny really learned from early season indicators...
 
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We should start a pool based on what date RChill will cave.

I'm going Nov. 27, 2018
 
RChildress107 said:
No he’s 11-19 (4-14) in year 4 of an ACC coaching job. That’s a great argument for why he’s a bad coach.

He was also 19-12(9-9) in year 3 of an ACC coaching job after taking over for the worst ACC coach of all time who left the program depleted of talent. That’s a great argument against him being a bad coach.
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You really should watch a few Hawks games with John Collins to see how much better that shitty team plays when Collins is in the lineup. I mean, ya, they pretty much suck (cuz oh that's right, they can't play D worth a crap!!) but Collins' presence in the game can actually elevate the effectiveness of his teammates quite often. I'd say looking back I'm willing to give more credit to John Collins than Danny Manning for last year's 19-14 (you conveniently forgot two losses) success story.
 
Why the Deac Not said:
The day Crawford announces he's signed with an agent comes much sooner than November.
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That will be Crawford’s fault (and a reason we lost so much this year) and an excuse for why we won’t make the tournament next year.
 
Why the Deac Not said:
So you want us to prove why Manning is a bad coach, but you don't want to prove why he's a good coach because UNCERTAINTY!! Hahaha this is silly.

It cannot be summarized better than what Racer wrote a few posts above.

I guess it doesn't matter cuz we're probably stuck with Danny for now. A much greater problem may be the uncertainty surrounding Ron Wellman's retirement. Since he may be a vampire, we could be screwed. I'll hope Hoard is a transformational player, but I won't be holding our breath for the team to suddenly realize how to "just guard your man" and ascend to the top 1/3 (hell I'd settle for top 9) of the conference. In close games where coaching matters, we will more often fail to produce the results. Of course, our sked could be favorable and maybe just maybe we get to 19 wins and a bubble berth back to the First Four! Hooray!

PS -- the 2019 class better be damn good...doesn't have to have an Aminu or Chris Paul, but we better get 3 players all in the Top 100-125 or else we're just gonna keep chasing this elusive thing called progress till we're all so demoralized we stop watching and posting.
Click to expand...

Outlining expectations for the first four years of the coach taking over after [Redacted], defending those expectations as reasonable, and then evaluating Manning based on those expectations, while noting worthy counter arguments and responding to criticism of your own argument is all I ask.

I don’t need you to be certain that Manning is a bad coach as that would likely involve ignoring evidence to the contrary. I’m not certain he is/will be a good coach because I refuse to ignore evidence to the contrary.

But keep clutching those strawmen if it makes you feel better.
 
Strickland33 said:
...John Collins-caliber players (one of the most productive and efficient big men in college basketball history, fwiw).
Click to expand...

I mean, really. John Collins made Ken Pomeroy his bitch and damn near destroyed his efficiency model with absurd stats didn't he? Almost makes the system look a bit volatile and uncertain eh?
 
RChildress107's GF/fiancee/wife/whatever - God bless you, lady.
 
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