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First Charges Filed in Mueller Investigation

birdman said:
The 35-40% are the ones with personal armories and if protests erupt, violence will likely follow. It could get very ugly.
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There's a parallel universe out there where Trump creates a constitutional crisis, the 60-70% of reasonable people take to the streets in protest, the 30-40% of rubes literally fight back, and we end up essentially being Egypt a few years ago.
 
cville deac said:
I'm not as confident as you are, and I wouldn't be surprised if we're headed toward a constitutional crisis. I saw some poll numbers, and that same 35-40% who still love Trump fall into either the believe or somewhat believe that Mueller's investigation is partisan. When Geraldo Rivera told Hannity on Hannity's show that had Hannity and Fox been around in the 1970s, Nixon would not have been impeached. I said when he made that comment that I agree with his assessment and still do. The groundwork for such a crisis is being laid. We are now hearing that Trump is likely going to fire Sessions and will replace Sessions with someone who will fire Mueller. We'll have another Saturday Night Massacre, however this time around, there will be no Barry Goldwater who will go tell the president that his goose is cooked, and Trump will remain in office.
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It's a fair point but I think a lot of people may be overestimating the bases's ability to protect Trump. I agree there is little chance with a GOP controlled Congress but either a split Congress or Dem controlled the possibility increases significantly.

To impeach and remove a president, 3 things need to happen:

1. A majority of the House Judiciary Commtee members need to vote to bring articles of impeachment (Committee is controlled by majority party)
2. House has to vote on whether to bring articles of impeachment. Can pass by a simple majority.
3. Two thirds of the senate need to vote to convict and remove.

Assuming there's evidence of an impeachable offense, steps 1 and 2 are almost a given in a Dem-controlled House. Step 3 becomes a little trickier based on the party breakdown but let's say it's a 50/50 split. You need 16 Republicans to flip to vote. Again not easy but I think you can find 16 (may even need fewer) Republican Senators, especially if the offense is particularly egregious.
 
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I also don't think Trump has an army of supporters who are ready to hit the streets in the event he's removed from office. There may be a handful of red hat wearing MAGA idiots like Lectro but they are a small minority. I was actually surprised by some of the comments from Trump supporters in PA18 this week. There is definitely a sense of exhaustion from the entire circus with not much being done. I also think people are beginning to realize that his "strength and bravado" (why everyone liked him) is actually nothing more than a charade. And that he's a morally rephrehensible human being who treats others like shit who very few would want as a son, father or friend let alone as POTUS.
 
Name your 16. Actually 17. And remember Corker, Flake and McCain are no longer in the senate. And the offense is the Saturday Night Massacre Redux with full orchestration and 5 part harmony. And I don't take steps 1 and 2 as givens. Fox and house Pubs will cry partisan foul. But for entertainment purposes, let's say we pass steps 1 and 2. Let's start counting to 17. Collins, Romney and Sasse probably. Maybe Murkowski, Gardner, Johnson, Scott, Graham and Alexander? I don't think you get past halfway there solely based upon a Saturday Night Massacre, which is all it would be based upon. Because there is no proof of collusion with the Russians or any other high crimes - all you have is misdemeanor obstruction of justice.
 
Newenglanddeac said:
I also don't think Trump has an army of supporters who are ready to hit the streets in the event he's removed from office. There may be a handful of red hat wearing MAGA idiots like Lectro but they are a small minority. I was actually surprised by some of the comments from Trump supporters in PA18 this week. There is definitely a sense of exhaustion from the entire circus with not much being done. I also think people are beginning to realize that his "strength and bravado" (why everyone liked him) is actually nothing more than a charade. And that he's a morally rephrehensible human being who treats others like shit who very few would want as a son, father or friend let alone as POTUS.
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It's not a small minority. It's at least a third of the country. The only way a successful impeachment is if Trump becomes such a liability that congressional Pubs start hearing from a large number of Pub constituents that they're fed up. For that to happen, his popularity would have to fall to the mid-20s or below, we get a recession or Trump causes an unforgivable major international incident.
 
yeah but that 30% includes basically everyone over 70 and probably 99% of those over 80
 
ImTheCaptain said:
yeah but that 30% includes basically everyone over 70 and probably 99% of those over 80
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If I may offer a friendly amendment, don't you mean every white person over 70?

So? And it's not 30%, it's still 38-40%. Too high a % for impeachment.
 
cville deac said:
If I may offer a friendly amendment, don't you mean every white person over 70?

So? And it's not 30%, it's still 38-40%. Too high a % for impeachment.
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i just mean many of that percentage are statistically likely to be dead let alone capable of insurrection
 
Much more likely we repeal the 22nd amendment so Trump can be President for life to compete with Xi and Putin.
 
ImTheCaptain said:
i just mean many of that percentage are statistically likely to be dead let alone capable of insurrection
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I'm not as high on the whole insurrection thing happening. Sure, it's possible, but I'm not counting on armed insurrection at this point. And if we do have armed insurrection, a 70 year old can shoot you just as easily as a 30 year old. Especially if s/he has a shotgun so you get a wide spread, or better yet, semi-automatic weapons.
 
cville deac said:
I'm not as high on the whole insurrection thing happening. Sure, it's possible, but I'm not counting on armed insurrection at this point. And if we do have armed insurrection, a 70 year old can shoot you just as easily as a 30 year old. Especially if s/he has a shotgun so you get a wide spread, or better yet, semi-automatic weapons.
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AsesinoDeTortugas said:
There's a parallel universe out there where Trump creates a constitutional crisis, the 60-70% of reasonable people take to the streets in protest, the 30-40% of rubes literally fight back, and we end up essentially being Egypt a few years ago.
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Parallel universe? Or June.
 
cville deac said:
Name your 16. Actually 17. And remember Corker, Flake and McCain are no longer in the senate. And the offense is the Saturday Night Massacre Redux with full orchestration and 5 part harmony. And I don't take steps 1 and 2 as givens. Fox and house Pubs will cry partisan foul. But for entertainment purposes, let's say we pass steps 1 and 2. Let's start counting to 17. Collins, Romney and Sasse probably. Maybe Murkowski, Gardner, Johnson, Scott, Graham and Alexander? I don't think you get past halfway there solely based upon a Saturday Night Massacre, which is all it would be based upon. Because there is no proof of collusion with the Russians or any other high crimes - all you have is misdemeanor obstruction of justice.
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I would add Heller (provided he wins), Lee and Portman to that list. Maybe even Rubio and Lankford. Then I would not put it past someone like Cruz or even McConnell to turn on Trump because it's politically advantageous (not because it's the right thing). That's 14+. And if you do get someone in a leadership position on board, that essentially gives the green light to the entire GOP caucus.

Again it won't be easy and it will probably take a significant loss of public support or a complete shellacking in 2018 in addition to your hypothetical. But again this is not out of the realm of possibility like many think.
 
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Newenglanddeac said:
I also don't think Trump has an army of supporters who are ready to hit the streets in the event he's removed from office. There may be a handful of red hat wearing MAGA idiots like Lectro but they are a small minority. I was actually surprised by some of the comments from Trump supporters in PA18 this week. There is definitely a sense of exhaustion from the entire circus with not much being done. I also think people are beginning to realize that his "strength and bravado" (why everyone liked him) is actually nothing more than a charade. And that he's a morally rephrehensible human being who treats others like shit who very few would want as a son, father or friend let alone as POTUS.
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We already had a murder in Charlottesville last summer by white supremacists during a public protest. There is going to be pro and anti Trump violence if a Constitutional crisis ramps up and liberal take to the streets calling for his ouster. The depth and breadth of the violence in the event of some sort of impeachment is uncertain, but it is highly likely that people will get killed.
 
 
Newenglanddeac said:

“I pray that Acting Attorney General Rosenstein will follow the brilliant and courageous example of the FBI Office of Professional Responsibility and Attorney General Jeff Sessions and bring an end to alleged Russia Collusion investigation manufactured by McCabe’s boss James Comey based upon a fraudulent and corrupt Dossier,” Dowd then wrote.
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Love that he's linking the firing of McCabe to frustration with the Mueller investigation. Can't see how that could possibly go wrong.

When The Daily Beast initially asked Dowd if he was speaking on behalf of the president, he answered, “Yes as his counsel.” After publication of this story, however, Dowd emailed to say he was actually speaking in his personal capacity, and not on the president’s behalf.
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