• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Offical Sports Betting Thread

Wakeforest22890 said:
Picks so far this week:

Michigan @ Indiana (+9)
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State (+1)
Oklahoma State (-7) @ West Virginia
Minnesota (-14) @ Northwestern
NC State (+2) @ Ga. Tech
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech (-4)

I have State as a 3.5 point favorite even though they’ve been awful. They need to win out for a bowl and I think they probably win outright.
Click to expand...

So far so good this week. Pushed State and Oklahoma State and already cashed Minnesota. Indiana (by 7), Virginia Tech (by 14), and Arkansas State (by 25) all winning in the first half of theirs. Added in Georgia State -9.5 against USA as well and they're up by 25 as well.
 
I'm close to pulling the trigger on the under 50. I'm expecting both teams to run the ball a lot in this weather.
 
NFL has been awful for me this year; so, you may want to fade, but the thinking for the Jets is that:

a) West Coast team playing a 1pm East Coast start (traditional bad spot for the West Coast team)
b) Raiders play the Chiefs next week for what may be for the AFC West top spot (look ahead)
c) Jets have played well at home since Darnold came back: beat the Cowboys, crushed the Giants, willing to overlook the Pats debacle
d) Darnold seems to be gaining his form
e) Jets have the best run D in the NFL; so, the Raiders stud rookie Josh James may not be a factor.

Also, a guy that I respect on another forum posted this on the Giants Bears game:
I don't do Game of the Years (GOY) or HUGE plays, but I have to say I can't recall seeing more trends line up on one side like I see for the Giants. I have nine situational trends that collectively are 330-82 (!) for 80% ATS favoring NYG, and none for Bears. I will add the Bears seem like a team in disarray and unraveling, once hyped to make the post-season. Meanwhile, the NYG are certainly not good, but they can score, and this would really be an anti-Bears pick.

Good luck
 
Pilchard said:
NFL has been awful for me this year; so, you may want to fade, but the thinking for the Jets is that:

a) West Coast team playing a 1pm East Coast start (traditional bad spot for the West Coast team)
b) Raiders play the Chiefs next week for what may be for the AFC West top spot (look ahead)
c) Jets have played well at home since Darnold came back: beat the Cowboys, crushed the Giants, willing to overlook the Pats debacle
d) Darnold seems to be gaining his form
e) Jets have the best run D in the NFL; so, the Raiders stud rookie Josh James may not be a factor.

Also, a guy that I respect on another forum posted this on the Giants Bears game:
I don't do Game of the Years (GOY) or HUGE plays, but I have to say I can't recall seeing more trends line up on one side like I see for the Giants. I have nine situational trends that collectively are 330-82 (!) for 80% ATS favoring NYG, and none for Bears. I will add the Bears seem like a team in disarray and unraveling, once hyped to make the post-season. Meanwhile, the NYG are certainly not good, but they can score, and this would really be an anti-Bears pick.

Good luck
Click to expand...

Thanks. That helps a lot. Any other insight is very much welcomed.
 
Pilchard said:
NFL has been awful for me this year; so, you may want to fade, but the thinking for the Jets is that:

a) West Coast team playing a 1pm East Coast start (traditional bad spot for the West Coast team)
b) Raiders play the Chiefs next week for what may be for the AFC West top spot (look ahead)
c) Jets have played well at home since Darnold came back: beat the Cowboys, crushed the Giants, willing to overlook the Pats debacle
d) Darnold seems to be gaining his form
e) Jets have the best run D in the NFL; so, the Raiders stud rookie Josh James may not be a factor.

Also, a guy that I respect on another forum posted this on the Giants Bears game:
I don't do Game of the Years (GOY) or HUGE plays, but I have to say I can't recall seeing more trends line up on one side like I see for the Giants. I have nine situational trends that collectively are 330-82 (!) for 80% ATS favoring NYG, and none for Bears. I will add the Bears seem like a team in disarray and unraveling, once hyped to make the post-season. Meanwhile, the NYG are certainly not good, but they can score, and this would really be an anti-Bears pick.

Good luck
Click to expand...

Bingo.

All that and the public on the Raiders.
 
Agree liking the Giants and Jets with the points. Also like Miami +10.5, Seattle -2 and Dallas +6. Cleveland is without 3 of its best defenders, Philly has zero WRs who can run better than a 4.6, and I like Dallas' offense to score enough to keep it close. Seems like Dallas either wins by double digits or loses by less than a TD.

My biggest issue is who to pick for my eliminator pool. I have Cleveland but am nervous of an upset. Thought about taking Detroit because the Skins are a dumpster fire, but I don't know how much to trust Driskel.
 
I like a few other games today... Have only bet on the Jets as of now.

MIA
DEN
NE

Have been great NFL all year... And then sucked out loud last week. So YMMV.
 
I always put $1 down on a 10 team ATS parlay and the same 10 teased. Great way to lose two bucks a week but fun to follow.
 
Pilchard said:
NFL has been awful for me this year; so, you may want to fade, but the thinking for the Jets is that:

a) West Coast team playing a 1pm East Coast start (traditional bad spot for the West Coast team)
b) Raiders play the Chiefs next week for what may be for the AFC West top spot (look ahead)
c) Jets have played well at home since Darnold came back: beat the Cowboys, crushed the Giants, willing to overlook the Pats debacle
d) Darnold seems to be gaining his form
e) Jets have the best run D in the NFL; so, the Raiders stud rookie Josh James may not be a factor.

Also, a guy that I respect on another forum posted this on the Giants Bears game:
I don't do Game of the Years (GOY) or HUGE plays, but I have to say I can't recall seeing more trends line up on one side like I see for the Giants. I have nine situational trends that collectively are 330-82 (!) for 80% ATS favoring NYG, and none for Bears. I will add the Bears seem like a team in disarray and unraveling, once hyped to make the post-season. Meanwhile, the NYG are certainly not good, but they can score, and this would really be an anti-Bears pick.

Good luck
Click to expand...

Worked out well. Thanks.
 
Had a weirdly good day yesterday with NFL unders [which I normally hate], going on the OAK/Jets under 46.5, Chi/Giants Under 40, Pitt/Cincy under 39 & Buff/Denver under 37.5
Missed on Atlanta -4.5, & Saints -9.5 but did hit on Jets +3, Giants +6 & Bills -4
 
16-6 this weekend. Bad weather unders went 8-3, and I wish I bet more NFL unders yesterday for the iffy weather games with bad teams (i.e. Reff above). Only bet NE.

I'll try to start posting them on Friday evening/Saturday morning, if people care to play along. 2nd weekend this year I've placed a bunch of them after doing a decent amount of weather research. 10-3 and now 8-3 ain't bad! I'm sure it will come crashing down at some point, but gotta ride the wave.
 
Ready for some MACtion? Below is the weather forecast for Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois tonight. Under 50.5 is my play, despite high scoring offenses.

Cloudy with periods of rain. Becoming windy overnight. Thunder possible. Low 38F. Winds S at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 100%.
 
Thanks for the info. A further argument for the under, N. Illinois starting QB Ross Bowers is out tonight with a concussion. The one concern is that his backup, Marcus Childers threw 3 picks last week which resulted in two TDs for Eastern Michigan. Hope for bad weather, a conservative game-plan and no turnovers (at least no turnovers resulting in easy scores).
 
Pilchard said:
Thanks for the info. A further argument for the under, N. Illinois starting QB Ross Bowers is out tonight with a concussion. The one concern is that his backup, Marcus Childers threw 3 picks last week which resulted in two TDs for Eastern Michigan. Hope for bad weather, a conservative game-plan and no turnovers (at least no turnovers resulting in easy scores).
Click to expand...

Yeah, I meant to post that. Apparently Childers is the running QB and N. Illinois prefers a ball control offense usually. Turnovers for easy scores are the under's worst enemy, as you're pulling for the defense to do well, but not THAT well. Keep the ball in between the 20s and burn clock.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top