Here is his take on Alondes at #53:
STRENGTHS
Williams is one of the crazier breakout stories in college hoops this past season. Originally attended a junior college before
committing to Oklahoma. Was a solid role player with the Sooners before transferring for his fifth year to Wake Forest. Broke
out in an insane way, winning ACC Player of the Year while being named first-team All-ACC.
Great size for a lead guard at 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-7 wingspan. Uses that size exceedingly well. As a ballhandler, Williams is not
the shiftiest guy, but he really uses his frame in a great way, then sees over the top of the defense to find open players as a passer.
Does have a good first step that allows him to occasionally just blow by his man. In general, as a ballhandler, Williams just seems
to have something of a hooper gene. He understands the way defenders are going to play him, seems to really understand the
way that they’re leaning and then shifts gears and works off that to gain separation and get into the paint. A lot of spin moves
and crafty little step-throughs with good footwork.
An unbelievably good passer and playmaker. Makes utterly outstanding reads out of ball screens and in the open court. You can
see him processing the game at work when he’s out there. Can throw passes from almost any angle off a live dribble. He’ll throw
scoop passes, long-distance bounce passes, cross-corner kickouts off a no-look with one-hand. He’s also excellent at opening
angles for himself as a passer by attacking constantly and finding his man. Just sees the court in a different way.
And because he can throw live-dribble reads from both hands, Williams’ ability to create angles as a passer is difficult to guard.
He’ll throw them with touch or on an absolute rope to his man. Out of ball screens he’s always looking at the help man on the
backside to see whether to throw the lob or the cross-corner look. He’s more manipulating the defense in these settings than
throwing guys open, but he was excellent at manipulating guys to go where he wanted them to in order to get guys open.
Williams is also a pretty good scorer from 18 feet and in. Good post game against smaller guards. Very effective finisher around
the rim on drives. If he gets a free lane to the rim, it’s going to be a show because he’s going to try to throw it down with authority.
But he also absorbs contact exceedingly well. Rises up off two feet when trying to finish and play through the big and bounces
off while maintaining some elevation and finishing. Made 66.3 percent of his half-court attempts at the rim and created almost
five of them per game, a large number for a guard. I don’t know that I quite see him as being this impactful at the NBA level
because there is a degree of powerful bully ball to his game, but I do think he’ll be a relatively effective finisher. Also has an OK
midrange pull-up game. Made about 44 percent of his 60 midrange shots this past season.
I didn’t love his defensive game this past season, but Williams does a pretty good job guarding up the lineup and has theoretical
potential to be switchable through the three position. His strength stands up well here.
WEAKNESSES
Obviously, there is a real consideration with age. Williams is the oldest player who should on some level expect to be picked
on draft night. How much of his play this past season was simply an older player dominating younger competition? There is a
degree to which you can see that in his game. Some of the bully-ball stuff he does when getting penetration and getting to the
rim won’t fly at the next level.
Williams has two significant areas of concern on offense. First, his shooting ability. I don’t love Williams’ shot at all, off the pull-
up or the catch. It’s very stiff and robotic off the catch. Doesn’t have great shot prep at all. Looks like he’s kind of throwing it up
toward the rim sometimes. He threw up a couple of shots that looked like curve balls this past season, threw up some line-drive
balls. Sometimes he involves his lower half by taking them off the hop. Other times he just takes them off a one-two with no legs.
Not sure he loads it up the same way every time either. Sometimes it seems to come up on the left side of his head, other times
it’s more of a straight load into the shot. There’s just no consistency in where he’s going as a shooter. This jumper feels almost
like a page one rewrite where someone is going to have to rebuild it from the ground up. If he can’t shoot, it’s going to be really
tough for him to play off the ball, which means the margin for error shrinks dramatically.
I have real worries that teams are just going to go under all ball screens on him, force him to try to attack that way into the
middle, then stay at home on shooters. That would be tough for him, because he is also a pretty wild decision-maker at times.
His shot selection from the midrange off the catch was pretty wild this year. He threw up a ton of low-percentage looks for him.
Also finished third nationally in turnovers. Part of that is role, but another part of is that his inherent creativity can sometimes
get the better of him and lead to some wild choices that are low-percentage plays. Can be a bit of a wild card. In the 10 games
he played against Tier A competition this past season, per KenPom, his true-shooting percentage sunk from 57.6 overall to 51.3,
then his turnover percentage skyrocketed from 20.0 to 26.5. Those are some abhorrently bad numbers for a 23-year-old lead
guard.
Finally, Williams was a questionable defender throughout the year. Not always engaged. You can chalk some of it up to his
offensive load, but I think there are some real limitations here too. Struggles badly on closeouts. Think the routes he takes are
horrible and often result in blow-bys. He’s also just not very quick laterally. Quicker guards left him in the dust on the perimeter.
He struggled to get through screening actions. It’s hard for me to buy Williams’ turning into a high-level defender given his lack
of quickness and the fact that he’s older.
SUMMARY
Williams has one of the coolest, best-looking highlight reels of any player in this draft because of his live-dribble passing ability.
But when you start diving into the details, you start to wonder how it all comes together in a way that makes sense in the NBA.
He’s a guy who played a bit of bully ball this past season who struggles to make an impact off-ball because of his shooting issues,
and who doesn’t really defend at a high level. That means he needs to be so good as a playmaker and passer that he sticks in an
on-ball role, and the standard to play in an on-ball role in the NBA is so unbelievably high. Williams’ passing ability at least gives
him a non-zero chance to be able to do it, but I’m skeptical. He’s a good two-way opportunity for a team that could use more
guard depth and is willing to take a flier on his ball skills.