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Totally Unofficial 2022/23 Premier League Thread

Forest was much better towards the end of the season which is understandable with their 25 signings last off-season. I think they'll be competitive next year.
 
Fred's pass to set up Bruno's winner today was simply extraordinary!
Didn't know he had that creativity and vision in his locker.
 
Feel like I’ve seen rumblings that Cooper is over the ownership sitch at Forest and has been flirting with Palace? No clue if that’s legit but he did an amazing job. They need to do all they can to keep him, although I’d love to see him/Potter/maybe BRodg/someone good (Roy did well, I’ll give him that, but too old) at Palace.
 
Schmadtke taking over on a short term deal is official for Liverpool. Chance to extend if folks like each other over the summer I guess. I don’t know, it’s all very weird and doesn’t fill me with confidence, but last summer was a mess (no idea whose fault) so I guess it doesn't hurt to try something different. Or it could hurt. Who knows.
 


Pretty incredible stat. Tiny margins like these make seasons, and there’s still so much left to exploit with good data and management.
 
Interesting. Would not have guessed that. Think maybe there was some other set piece vulnerability (free kicks and maybe second phase on corners? First Brentford match they seemed shaky) and the recent Nottingham Forest throw-in game, but those could just be standing out in my head and it wasn't really an issue, overall.
 
zero corner goal stat is interesting but i have no idea what i'm to gather from those graphics
 
Brighton and West Ham look the least fortunate of the surviving teams. Likely none of the relegated teams really should have gone down. Wolves extremely fortunate. Fulham greatly over performed expectations. Villa and Man United quite a bit as well.

Firing Gerrard and Lampard were pivotal moves. Getting Ronaldo out at United saw a massive swing. A few other noteworthy trends. Feels like a lesson is definitely that you should make your manager move with enough time for it to matter.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
zero corner goal stat is interesting but i have no idea what i'm to gather from those graphics
Click to expand...

Apparently their model doesn’t account for own goals, because Konate did concede one that way.

I think the big thing the graphic (and eye test) show is that zonal marking can work, as much as commentators HATE IT.
 


He, Doucoure, Iwobi, and McNeil all up for our player of the season imo.
 
Areas of need for Everton are many, but I’d rank them:

Striker
2 fullbacks
Gana replacement (Tyler Adams?)
8

I think we are gonna snap up Viktor Gyorkes from Coventry
 
I don't see a breakdown on the graphic/tweet, but how do they calculate expected points with regards to draws? Like Team 1 0.89 - 0.90 Team 2 would equal a win for Team 2? Or is there a margin of error that equals a draw?
 
HuskyDeac said:
I don't see a breakdown on the graphic/tweet, but how do they calculate expected points with regards to draws? Like Team 1 0.89 - 0.90 Team 2 would equal a win for Team 2? Or is there a margin of error that equals a draw?
Click to expand...
That particular account isn’t my favorite model for expected goals, it’s fairly rudimentary. Fbref, which uses Statsbomb, is probably the best, their model is very sophisticated, taking into account the most variables, and their xG and xGA numbers have proven the most correlative to goals and goals conceded forecasts over a long span.

But to answer your question, I think it’s meant to be accumulative probabilities over time. Like if you played the same game 100 times with a .89-.91 scoreline, you’d expect a range of 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, etc outcomes, and this is just the accumulation of the most likely outcomes from however many simulations their model runs. It’s “proprietary” insofar as they use their social account to sell books, don’t think they’re even an actual data company.
 
I think I'm somehow less optimistic about Liverpool next year after their 11 match unbeaten run to end the season than I was before, but it could just be end of season depression and this weird Sporting Director set up. A little unsure if the inverted Trent thing is the way to go for good, or if that was just the shake up they needed to push them over the line during what was a favorable run of matches.

I didn't think they were that great as much as I thought Trent AA was that great (and he wasn't that great in the last two, which they drew and still looked vulnerable defensively). That being said, I'm not sure how many clubs put together an unbeaten streak that length this year, which you need to do if you are going to even make City think about it. So they showed they can still dial it up.

They need at least 2 midfielders (I think 3, but I'm actually talking myself into Gakpo being the more advanced 8 on the right) but if that's the way they're going set up permanently, I think they'd need at least two new defenders, too. Matip and Tsimikas might go, Konate isn't the most robust, and Van Dijk is still great, but I think you want to watch his minutes and I don't think he's getting any better from here. Haven't seen them mentioned with too many defenders -- Inacio and Timber more recently, who both seem like they could do a fullback/centerback thing on either side and Timber might be able to do sort of the Trent thing, too, but I'm not sure either could work in a regular centerback pairing in the Premier League. Colwill would be perfect, but if Pochettino is smart he makes that a non starter -- that would be the dream, though.

Think you could make a case for another versatile attacker, too, since Firmino and -- likely -- Carvalho are going, and Gakpo for me has looked more natural in midfield and they still need some shot volume monster in there like Darwin.

Give me: Mac Allister, a 6-ish with a high ceiling (Thuram?), young English/homegrown midfielder (Lavia/Scott/Hackney/O'Riley -- unsure if the last two count as homegrown), versatile defender or 2 (Timber/Inacio/Kelly/Hincapie/Colwill), and a versatile attacker (Chiesa). That's 5/6 which is about the maximum I'd expect them to do (not counting a backup GK if Kelleher goes). Don't know how that works with homegrown numbers.

Eventually something like this:
Alisson
Trent AA/Konate or Timber/VVD/Colwill or Robertson
Gakpo/Fabinho or Thuram/Mac Allister
Salah/Nunez or Diogo J/Diaz

Bench: Zieler; Timber, Robertson, Henderson, Thuram, Elliott, Jones, Diogo J, Chiesa (Gomez, Thiago, Bajcetic, Ramsay, Scott)

Sell: Kelleher, Phillips, Matip, Carvalho, Tsimikas

Talked myself into a little optimism after that. Don't think that's too much of a fantasy? Sorry, that's long and was kind of stream of consciousness.
 
TownieDeac said:
That particular account isn’t my favorite model for expected goals, it’s fairly rudimentary. Fbref, which uses Statsbomb, is probably the best, their model is very sophisticated, taking into account the most variables, and their xG and xGA numbers have proven the most correlative to goals and goals conceded forecasts over a long span.

But to answer your question, I think it’s meant to be accumulative probabilities over time. Like if you played the same game 100 times with a .89-.91 scoreline, you’d expect a range of 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, etc outcomes, and this is just the accumulation of the most likely outcomes from however many simulations their model runs. It’s “proprietary” insofar as they use their social account to sell books, don’t think they’re even an actual data company.
Click to expand...
Ahh ok - that makes more sense. Thanks.
 
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