For Real, I could see the following possibly out with confidence rating:
Carvalho 100%
Altintop 90%
Kaka 100%
Albiol 75%
Higuain 50%
Lass Diarra 50%
Sahin 20%
Drenthe and Gago should not return from their loans and Canales has another year at Valencia.
Kaka absolutely has to go, no question about it. He had a good season by any measure but he doesn't add enough to the team to validate his wages and the price tag paid. Someone will pay us something decent for him (PSG already rumored to be heavily in for him) and if we don't take it after this season, the club is crazy.
Higuain appears to want out after clearly falling to second choice to Benzema (as much crap as I used to give Benzema over on scout, he's clearly developed into a fantastic player). As much as I love him, he's going to go where he can play every game and make a boat load of money. PSG appears to want him, Chelsea always seem to be in rumors for him. I rate it at 50% because he has a long history in Madrid and I think they can convince him to stay. I think this is going to be a long saga.
Lass will be Lass again, gotta think Albiol wants to play somewhere, Altintop too. Carvalho really lost a few steps with his injuries and did not show quality in his return. Highly doubtful he comes back for another year. Sahin never really got a chance with injuries this season and I think he's too good to not get another season to break into the side, but rumor has it some big clubs would like to take him on and I see it as a possibility. Could also see a loan spell for him.
In:
Piszczek (seems to be the only name out there right now, reinforcing the right now that Ramos is playing CB)
Will probably need to pick up a bench CB as Varane is a promising talent but hasn't seen much of the pitch yet.
I just don't see a big splash unless Higuain leaves early. If he drags it out and leaves, there may not be any big names left to scoop up -- but if he leaves early, we'll certainly splash big on another striker. Otherwise the club may just promote some canteranos in positions to add depth. I think as long as we keep Mourinho and Ronaldo, this squad has to be the favorite in Europe next season already. Most of the buys I think will be reactions to whoever leaves and will generally add younger depth as has been the strategy for the past 2 years.
Neymar will once again be the big story in Spain but I give it about a 25% chance of happening this summer and 10% he comes to Madrid (will probably be totally wrong on this).