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Common sense in that the probability of a win at any given time during the election cycle should be dominated by future uncertainty, rather than current uncertainty. So the probability of either outcome is close to 50% up until right before the election occurs. During early August, Silver had...

The binary nature of the model reflects the two outcomes of the election, not two choices on the ballot.

I mean, it was more proposed as a critique of Silver's methodology than an actual replacement. Clearly the model can be fleshed out more. It also passes the common sense test, unless you believe that Trump's chances of winning the election have actually gone from 2% to 40% in a matter of weeks.

I understood it to mean he was modeling the popular vote. I could be wrong though.

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That's true, you don't make for a very high bar.

For those that are interested, Taleb also wrote a great takedown of FiveThirtyEight's shoddy methodology, in which he proposed (what I believe to be) a much more appropriate model based on the stochastic processes of the prices of binary options.

You can tell that Taleb's description of the Intellectual Yet Idiot has fit Ph perfectly based on his incredibly triggered response.

In what world is Nassim Nicholas Taleb an idiot? That dude has forgotten more about any subject than you've learned in your entire life.

https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.msc12y49l

Man, public speaking is not Hillary's gift. Kind of crazy she isn't better at it after being in public life for as long as she has. Neither Hillary nor Chelsea were very good. The pre-recorded video was the best part of the night for her, but I did only tune in at 10:00 PM so I didn't see any of...

Well, looks like Terry is fast off the starting line. Not an hour after the nomination is sewn up and he is already announcing Hillary's TPP flip flop. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/terry-mcauliffe-hillary-clinton-tpp-trade-226253 Didn't see this one coming at all.

It's already priced into the markets, though.

It's already weak, and saying that out loud isn't going to make it weaker in any substantive way. There are plenty of good avenues of attack on Trump. Fear mongering over NATO isn't really one of them in my opinion. The more shrill liberals get in defense of a status quo that most Americans...

But again, no matter the result of the election, no candidate currently running is going to stop a Russian invasion of Estonia, and Putin already knows this.

Again, I don't agree with his positions on trade. I'm just saying these positions have a definite political upside and he obviously knows what he's doing when he exploits it.

I definitely disagree with you on this point. Public comments signal that he is serious about renegotiating these alliances to the countries in question, with credibility that could not be had from using back channels. At the same time, they are certainly not going to make Putin more likely to...

I'm not sure what this means exactly, but if you are implying that I don't like to defend the statements I make, I encourage you to go through my posting history. I think you'll find that I have a better predictive track record than most on here. Either way, I mostly just lurk now because...

The danger of such comments pale in comparison to the reality of the situation. Putin knows just as much as anyone that he could have Estonia if he wanted it, he just doesn't have the political capital to pull it off right now. Sticking our heads in the sand and pretending like everything is...