Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

[Deacon923]

Interested in this article in light of recent arguments about the significance of unemployment rates.

http://www.news-record.com/business/article_2fe50f6a-77ba-11e3-b6a7-0019bb30f31a.html

Greensboro/High Point unemployment rate drops to lowest in five years, but only 200 jobs actually created.

The rate dropped to a seasonally adjusted 7.8 percent in November, the N.C. Department of Commerce reported Tuesday.
That’s a drop of 2.1 percentage points compared with November 2012.
It’s also the lowest rate in five years, when it was 7.9 percent.
But a closer look suggests the Greensboro/High Point metro’s job market may not be as healthy as it seems.
Despite the drop in the unemployment rate, the state’s survey of households suggests the region is adding few jobs.
The number of employed people is virtually unchanged since the end of 2012.
In December 2012, there were 339,040 employed people.
In the latest report for November, it’s almost the same figure: 339,258.

“What happened in November doesn’t look that bad,” UNCG economist
Andrew Brod said. “But if you look at 2013 so far, the vast majority of the improvement in measured unemployment is people leaving the labor force.”
To be fair, another government employment survey, which gathers information from businesses, shows the region added about 5,000 jobs.
“Five thousand jobs is still pretty weak employment growth for 11 months,” Brod said.