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WFU Hoops: '24-'25 Roster Construction Thread: +Spillers/Biliew/Cosby/Johnson/Abass

Wouldn't absolutely shock me if we start landing a few 5 star guys. They are what we are doing with 5 star reclamation projects. Why not skip the middle man and just join us outta HS?

What we do with Omaha Billew could be very impactful/important to this theory.
 
CreamyGoodness said:
Wouldn't absolutely shock me if we start landing a few 5 star guys. They are what we are doing with 5 star reclamation projects. Why not skip the middle man and just join us outta HS?

What we do with Omaha Billew could be very impactful/important to this theory.
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You also have programs that would otherwise prioritize these freshmen going more the blue chip portal route. So there are edges to be gained as the landscape is more chaotic.
 
CreamyGoodness said:
Wouldn't absolutely shock me if we start landing a few 5 star guys. They are what we are doing with 5 star reclamation projects. Why not skip the middle man and just join us outta HS?

What we do with Omaha Billew could be very impactful/important to this theory.
Click to expand...
The biggest reason is the 5-star freshmen seem to be getting anywhere from $500k to $1M -- with the rare talents (Cooper Flagg) getting more like $2M for a year.

This year's reclamation project is coming here for probably $250-$350k, a year older/more mature, though with a bad year in the books that has taken off the shine a little bit.
 
Haros said:
The biggest reason is the 5-star freshmen seem to be getting anywhere from $500k to $1M -- with the rare talents (Cooper Flagg) getting more like $2M for a year.

This year's reclamation project is coming here for probably $250-$350k, a year older/more mature, though with a bad year in the books that has taken off the shine a little bit.
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I don’t think it stays that way relative to transfers. Paying for HS speculative talent is going to remain silly when you can get proven college players in the portal at blue blood programs.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
I don’t think it stays that way relative to transfers. Paying for HS speculative talent is going to remain silly when you can get proven college players in the portal at blue blood programs.
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Example: Carr to KY. Not a five star, but a marginal NBA prospect as a fifth year guy.
 
Yeah I really don't think there will be huge money for Freshman for long, there are only a few that are good each year and worth it compared the 3/4/5 year fringe guys with college experience and are 22 years old. There's a big difference there. Plus half or more of these freshman that get paid will end up leaving as soon as they can and get paid somewhere else again (hopefully by us!)
 
Deacfreak07 said:
I don’t think it stays that way relative to transfers. Paying for HS speculative talent is going to remain silly when you can get proven college players in the portal at blue blood programs.
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I think the money drops off FAST beyond that can't miss tier of HS players. Your average 4-star isn't making close to that $500k.
 
I wouldn't either and I generally agree with the strategy of recruiting the portal over HS players now. If it wasn't expressly our strategy before, I think it's about to be.

The tough part is if a 5-star frosh (someone seen as a program changer) is $500k, a known entity seen as a program changer is going to cost $800k or more going forward -- with just as many schools after those guys.

Our sweet spot is and has been finding guys that aren't seen as sure things but that we see something in -- and hope they make the leap we envision. And our coaching staff appears to be very good at identifying this potential - so I'm glad they're managing this NIL chaos.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Why gamble on 5 stars who haven't played CBB, when you can get proven CBB dudes? I sure as hell wouldn't be paying up for HS recruits.
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the answer is that certain teams have to take a gamble for whatever reason: not as much NIL as other programs, lower profile than blue bloods, etc.

if you have, say, 500k to spend, you may choose the high-risk, high-reward #17 overall player over a guy like Boopie who is proven but a lower ceiling
 
Haros said:
I wouldn't either and I generally agree with the strategy of recruiting the portal over HS players now. If it wasn't expressly our strategy before, I think it's about to be.

The tough part is if a 5-star frosh (someone seen as a program changer) is $500k, a known entity seen as a program changer is going to cost $800k or more going forward -- with just as many schools after those guys.

Our sweet spot is and has been finding guys that aren't seen as sure things but that we see something in -- and hope they make the leap we envision. And our coaching staff appears to be very good at identifying this potential - so I'm glad they're managing this NIL chaos.
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I think it's pretty expressly our strategy. I mean we have a 1 man class this year of Juke, who we've been after for several years, pre dating all of this stuff.
 
I think they've expressly gone away from recruiting guys outside the top 150 in their high school class, which made up the majority of guys by the end of Manning's tenure. I think they've still been trying to bring in top level talent, but we haven't been relevant in forever, so we don't get the benefit of the doubt around exposure/winning/prestige/atmosphere and have to outbid others (which we can't). Rakease Passmore (Kansas) and Bishop Boswell (Tennessee) are good examples from last year.

I'm not sure we ever go completely away from recruiting high schoolers -- because it seems there's often a connection made with guys that we later get on their first transfer (Davin Cosby). But yeah it looks pretty clear we will be rebuilding via the portal as long as this staff is here -- and given we probably couldn't (or wouldn't want to) keep most high schoolers around 4 years anyways, I like the shift.
 
No doubt that the current system suppresses the interest in HS talent right now.

Under the current system, coaches simply do not benefit from bringing in a player that won't immediately help, as a year from now that HS player may be in the portal or the HC may be out of a job. With a finite amount of NIL money, staffs and collective are incentivized to spend it only on players who will make a difference the very next season; even if the HS recruit has a lot more long term potential. Just another crappy aspect of the system.
 
The whole thing is so interesting because of the complete lack of rules, the huge discrepancy in resources, and the vast number of teams (and players) involved.

I can't think of anything else that looks like this in sports. Even if pro teams only had 1 year contracts, there would be a limited number of teams and a ton of replacement players (in theory).

It just isn't sustainable, especially when you figure in that the players are ostensibly supposed to be going to class and eventually trying to graduate (for the most part).
 
Please be sure to send your thank you cards to the feckless NCAA and college presidents for creating this current shitshow.

These clowns almost make the federal government look semi-competent. Almost.
 
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