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WFU Hoops: '24-'25 Roster Construction Thread: +Spillers/Biliew/Cosby/Johnson/Abass

Players should be able to transfer mid-year.

Give it another year or two, and they'll probably be able to transfer mid-game. It would be like the Survivor challenges: "Getting your first look at the second half Wolfpack as they return to the floor. Efton Reed transferring to NC State at halftime."

I'm really not here for this new era of not-really-college sports.
 
Not sure how fair it is to hammer Forbes for depth and high school recruiting when we had no NIL program to speak of until this past year. You can land starters by promising them ACC minutes and free steak at Putters, much harder to land decent bench/role players. Monsanto and Ituka draining a scholarship each with zero benefit didn't help much either - not just from a numbers standpoint but also because recruits had to assume they'd both be getting minutes. I mean, an experienced shooter with some length would be invaluable to this team right now, but nobody decent would sign up with Monsanto lurking in the pre-season for no NIL money.

This offseason should tell us a lot. Juke aces the eye-test in my book, we'll need a Sallis replacement from the portal probably. But with Boopie/Cam/Reid back (I assume) the core is pretty damn strong and Forbes has even more transfer cred assuming Sallis gets drafted. Plus he's got NIL money to work with. We play 7 guys right now and 4 of them were added this season. Next year we might be adding 2 of 7, maybe 3 of 8.
I'm not sure how much Sallis being a 2nd round pick moves the needle.
 
Some want men's college hoop to adopt the 4 quarter format like women's college hoop. That would give men's player's additional transfer opportunities. The conference tournaments could be wild. Even with the expanded conferences, a player could run through an entire conference over a long weekend.
 
Juke aces the eye-test in my book, we'll need a Sallis replacement from the portal probably.
Juke absolutely dominates his peers. Scoring 30+ PPG isn't easy and few top recruits do. That is a heuristic which has worked well to ID top players over the years (queue the Joseph Ammonett comments incoming...)
 
SCOTUS would just rule players can transfer during TV timeouts.
 
I hate that this thread is able to start so early. It’s March, which is my favorite time of the year, despite Wake not being relevant in March for the last 15 years. Currently have the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament on instead of dreaming about the damage the Deacs could do.
 
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No Depth, Part 1
Our issue all year has been no depth. It is my opinion that the biggest portion of blame attributable to Forbes is for not having enough playable scholarship players due to a combination of circumstances within and outside of his control. (Everything from the eye test having watched every second this year to looking at stats after games points to our rotations actually being really good, for the third straight year). And rectifying this will go a long way in determining whether next year turns out better than this year.

As we think about who was at all ready to play this year, here is our roster's plus/minus for the season excluding the 5 deep quad 4 non-conference opponents. It's not perfect because guys didn't play the same minutes against the same opponents, but directionally right....

Carr +178
Hildreth +144
Reid +141
Sallis +139
Boopie +113

PF +26
Monsanto +23
Keller +16
Marsh -16

Canka -23 (-39.3 per 40 minutes)
Marion -65 (-17.6 per 40)
100% agree, maybe it also somewhat explains some of our 2nd. half meltdowns. As I said on another thread we need two decent bigs, we have no depth at the 4 or 5. I also think it would be great to have a player like Childress who could put the team on his back and refuse to lose . I thought Sallis might turn out to be that guy but he has regressed the last few games. I hope he comes back and takes that role next year; I think he has the talent to do so.
 
Looking at Forbes record, prior to his last three years, Forbes used his bench extensively.

At ETSU, four his five teams were top 100 in the nation in bench minutes. Not sure how to treat his first year at WF, it was a COVID season and everyone sucked, but that team was actually 35th in the nation in bench minutes.

Here is the bench minutes (the amount of bench minutes per the 200 available team minutes) rundown:

2016 ETSU 35.6% #76
2017 ETSU 35.7% #86
2018 ETSU 38.3% #34
2019 ETSU 34.8% #70
2020 ETSU 29.6% #190
2021 WF 38.1% #35
2022 WF 25.2% #298
2023 WF 27.1% #268
2024 WF 22.7% #336

FWIW, among Power Conference teams only Kansas (#337), Creighton (#355) and Seton Hall (#356) have logged fewer bench minutes than WF in 2024.
 
Looking at Forbes record, prior to his last three years, Forbes used his bench extensively.

At ETSU, four his five teams were top 100 in the nation in bench minutes. Not sure how to treat his first year at WF, it was a COVID season and everyone sucked, but that team was actually 35th in the nation in bench minutes.

Here is the bench minutes (the amount of bench minutes per the 200 available team minutes) rundown:

2016 ETSU 35.6% #76
2017 ETSU 35.7% #86
2018 ETSU 38.3% #34
2019 ETSU 34.8% #70
2020 ETSU 29.6% #190
2021 WF 38.1% #35
2022 WF 25.2% #298
2023 WF 27.1% #268
2024 WF 22.7% #336

FWIW, among Power Conference teams only Kansas (#337), Creighton (#355) and Seton Hall (#356) have logged fewer bench minutes than WF in 2024.
And this gets to the conclusion that it's not his philosophy to not play more than 6-7 guys regularly, but rather it's been a necessity because we haven't had more than that who are ready to play at this level.

2022 - We saw a lot of Carter Whitt. Many many chances to develop and become a bigger contributor, but ultimately it wasn't working, the coaching staff sees his stats and the lineup +/- data and goes away from him completely once Monsanto returns.

2023 - Zach Keller saw a bunch of opportunity early on. But over a 4 game stretch against Wisconsin, LSU, Rutgers, and Clemson, we went -39 in 51 minutes with him on the floor (5 total rebounds and minimal offensive contribution) and his minutes dried up. Given another chance later, we went -10 in 2:52 of our 2 point home loss to BC and that was about it.

Lucas Taylor was similarly given an opportunity early. 40 minutes in our first 3 games. 22 minutes games 2/3 against Georgia and Utah Valley netted a -21 in which he scored 0 points and 3 rebounds and our defense got worse as well -- to the bench he goes.

Marsh played a total of 9 minutes through 4 games -- but then got an opportunity. We were much better with him on the floor in 2023 because Appleby in particular unlocked him on the offensive end (and our other options weren't good) and he actually had our 3rd highest +/- in conference play at +44 (trailing only Hildreth and Monsanto, just ahead of Appleby).

2024 - Canka played 9 minutes in the opener and 22 over our first 6 games (not recording a single Point, Reb, Stl, Bl, or Assist). We were outscored when he was on the floor in each of these games and totaled -25.

MMM - played A TON early on. +26 in the comeback against Elon earned him a long look in the absence of other options. Eclipsed 20 minutes in 4 of our 7 games before Reid came back. Averaged 12 minutes over 11 games vs Q1-3 opponents through the first UVA game. We were -53 in those minutes, outscored in 10 of 11, and he had the worst +/- of anyone we played in 5 of those 11 games. Then his playing time dried up.

The coaching staff has shown over and over that they will try out anyone that has shown anything at all in practice in real game action and see the result. When the results have consistently trended poorer and poorer, they'll minimize playing time and eventually take it away entirely so we aren't throwing games away in the process.
 
I get the metrics favor blowouts but in some of those actual blowouts we had, seems like Forbes could have tinkered with different lineups and/or defensive schemes. Keeps starters fresh, bench engaged (with potential to improve), and strikes me as better overall strategy over the course of a season. Certainly true pre-NET system.

I’m not even sure when the NET was adopted but if it was pre-Forbes at Wake, I’m not sure we can look at ETSU stats as indicative of his “preferred” style under current system. It is clear that he went with starters for a looooong time this year in blowouts.


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Looking at Forbes record, prior to his last three years, Forbes used his bench extensively.

At ETSU, four his five teams were top 100 in the nation in bench minutes. Not sure how to treat his first year at WF, it was a COVID season and everyone sucked, but that team was actually 35th in the nation in bench minutes.

Here is the bench minutes (the amount of bench minutes per the 200 available team minutes) rundown:

2016 ETSU 35.6% #76
2017 ETSU 35.7% #86
2018 ETSU 38.3% #34
2019 ETSU 34.8% #70
2020 ETSU 29.6% #190
2021 WF 38.1% #35
2022 WF 25.2% #298
2023 WF 27.1% #268
2024 WF 22.7% #336

FWIW, among Power Conference teams only Kansas (#337), Creighton (#355) and Seton Hall (#356) have logged fewer bench minutes than WF in 2024.
Is Sallis injured with that left arm sleeve?

Another reason to develop quality bench is less potential injuries late in the season to the over worked starters.
 
A lot if inconsistency from every seat on our bench.
 
with the transfer portal I assume you promise guys alot of playing time to get them to come and that automatically keeps most freshmen recruits on the bench unless you grab a 5 star guy . We basically played only one freshman this year. Like the old days when you brought guys in and watch them develop over 3-4 years but that ain't happening again. tough to develop a real solid bench when bringing in 2-3 new starters each year
 
with the transfer portal I assume you promise guys alot of playing time to get them to come and that automatically keeps most freshmen recruits on the bench unless you grab a 5 star guy . We basically played only one freshman this year. Like the old days when you brought guys in and watch them develop over 3-4 years but that ain't happening again. tough to develop a real solid bench when bringing in 2-3 new starters each year
But other teams are not all having this issue.
 
Remember Marsh was out with concussion for multiple games early in the season. Not as long as his freshman season concussion, but it still set him back some for getting in sync with his team mates. Why can't anybody throw a decent lob pass? That play was good for almost 100 dunks last season.
 
Remember Marsh was out with concussion for multiple games early in the season. Not as long as his freshman season concussion, but it still set him back some for getting in sync with his team mates. Why can't anybody throw a decent lob pass? That play was good for almost 100 dunks last season.

We don’t have a true PG. Forbes has to fix that this spring.
 
Forbes said in an interview after the FSU game, he is not a coach that likes to have a deep rotation like Hamilton does. He said he prefers playing 7-8 guys. With that in mind he was likely hoping this would be it when the season started:
Boopie, Sallis, Cam, Monsanto, Reid, Carr, P-Fred, & either Marsh or Keller if he needed an 8th.
 
Looking at Forbes record, prior to his last three years, Forbes used his bench extensively.

At ETSU, four his five teams were top 100 in the nation in bench minutes. Not sure how to treat his first year at WF, it was a COVID season and everyone sucked, but that team was actually 35th in the nation in bench minutes.

Here is the bench minutes (the amount of bench minutes per the 200 available team minutes) rundown:

2016 ETSU 35.6% #76
2017 ETSU 35.7% #86
2018 ETSU 38.3% #34
2019 ETSU 34.8% #70
2020 ETSU 29.6% #190
2021 WF 38.1% #35
2022 WF 25.2% #298
2023 WF 27.1% #268
2024 WF 22.7% #336

FWIW, among Power Conference teams only Kansas (#337), Creighton (#355) and Seton Hall (#356) have logged fewer bench minutes than WF in 2024.
Also wasn’t 2020 the only year he technically made the tourney with ETSU before it was cancelled? So didn’t really use a bench with his best team.
 
The bench minutes thing is unfortunate because Forbes stated numerous times that this was the deepest team he's had here at Wake. But then Monsanto's recovery was delayed. And Ituka got hurt (again). And Marsh/Keller/MMM weren't able to earn minutes.

I'm not of the opinion that the team has worn down, but more depth this season would certainly have been helpful.
 
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