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General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

If the new CNN poll is right and Clinton's only up 1 in PA she better be very worried. If she loses PA she's not gonna win.
 
If the new CNN poll is right and Clinton's only up 1 in PA she better be very worried. If she loses PA she's not gonna win.

Regardless of what RJ & some others think, the turnout for Hillary from black & young voters is going to be down considerably from what it was for Obama....and, correspondingly, an enthusiastic white voter turnout for Trump is going to be considerably higher than it was for Romney. Republicans have already made huge gains in new voter registrations. And then there is that 3rd straight party win thing.

If Trump can just get a draw from these debates, he is going to win this election. He will, however, have to survive a massive onslaught of desperate negative media ads in the closing weeks of the campaign by powerful entrenched interests who realize that they may well lose their long-held grip on the country. Desperate people will do & say desperate things. The Trump campaign had better be ready for it, because these people will not go down without firing every missile they have at him.
 
Apparently the Internet warriors that digest everything and anything say the new polls under demographics have N/A for millennial age and non-white voters. If that's true the media has gone full retard because you can't publish polls that supposedly are representative with N/A under key demographics. Just wait and increase your sample size. I'm beginning to think while clearly things are extremely close that every media group has gone straight click bait.
 
General Election Thread: Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson

Also, Philly is N/A. Does N/A mean those areas and demographics weren't polled? I really doubt that.

cfe2558faddf274a0c198bf8f34e4bdb.jpg



http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/26/relpa1.pdf




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Thought I would post this latest article from Pennsylvania to cheer up Hillary's supporters:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...and-you/ar-BBwCLvG?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp


"Clinton’s poll numbers are sagging, and the biggest reason is that she’s plunging among young voters. A Quinnipiac University poll this month found that in a four-way race, Clinton is up 5 points nationally with 18- to 34-year-old voters, down from a 24-point lead just a month before.
Just days ahead of the first debate Monday and less than two months before voting ends, interviews with more than 30 young voters in the battleground state of Pennsylvania underscore her two challenges: Many young voters are taking serious looks at Donald Trump as well as Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein. And many are debating whether they even want to vote this year."


What an odd cognitive dissonance it must be for Bob with millennials shifting away from Hillary.
 
So Gennifer Flowers isn't going to the debate? Wow, can't believe a thing Trump tweets.
 
I don't know what else not applicable means. They probably tried to with their methods poll those groups but statistically they didn't gather enough data to form statistics on them. Maybe it baking the numbers for post debate bounces who knows.
 
So Gennifer Flowers isn't going to the debate? Wow, can't believe a thing Trump tweets.

I say kudos to Trump and his campaign for showing some class and not turning this important debate into a circus. Shame on Hillary for treating it as a joke and giving notorious twitter troll Mark Cuban a front row seat. :mad:
 
I say kudos to Trump and his campaign for showing some class and not turning this important debate into a circus. Shame on Hillary for treating it as a joke and giving notorious twitter troll Mark Cuban a front row seat. :mad:

Yeah because inviting your opponent's husband's mistress (who has been out of the public eye long enough that I had to look her up) is the same as inviting your opponent's occasional Twitter troll who is a prominent public figure and perhaps the closest analog to Trump.
 
I say kudos to Trump and his campaign for showing some class and not turning this important debate into a circus. Shame on Hillary for treating it as a joke and giving notorious twitter troll Mark Cuban a front row seat. :mad:

Downplaying Mark Cuban to a "twitter troll" is the rough equivalent to calling Barack Obama a "community organizer".
 
Apparently the Internet warriors that digest everything and anything say the new polls under demographics have N/A for millennial age and non-white voters. If that's true the media has gone full retard because you can't publish polls that supposedly are representative with N/A under key demographics. Just wait and increase your sample size. I'm beginning to think while clearly things are extremely close that every media group has gone straight click bait.

fire up the unskewing websites
 
Attention Nate Silver devotees:
Nate Silver from 538 was the one who repeatedly said Trump couldn't win the GOP nomination. And now he's not only trying to frame the narrative, he's changing his methods to further skew polls in Clinton's direction.
PROOF:

Today's polls come from 5 different pollsters. 538 are adjusting for house effect, which means they're adding or subtracting percentages based on a pollster's previous inherent bias. That's not necessarily a bad method. Now he's changing the house effects mid-race to help Clinton.
Proof that 538 changed 4 out of 5 pollsters today to help Clinton:

QUINNIPIAC

This pollster is considered +1R --> adjust polls +1 in Clinton's favor. Last update on that Sep 22 in 4 polls. Proof.
TODAY'S POLL: +2 ADJUSTMENT IN CLINTON'S FAVOR. WHAT CHANGED, NATE?

CNN

No House Effect, no adjustment. Last update on Sept. 14 showing no adjustment. Proof.
TODAY'S POLL: +1 ADJUSTMENT IN CLINTON'S FAVOR. WHAT CHANGED, NATE?

RKM

Usually +1D --> adjust polls +1 in Trump's favor. Last update on that Sep 4 in 1 poll. Proof.
TODAY'S POLL: +1 ADJUSTMENT IN CLINTON'S FAVOR (CHANGE OF +2 IN CLINTON'S FAVOR FROM LAST UPDATE). WHAT CHANGED, NATE?

SurveyUSA

This pollster is usually +1D --> adjust polls +1 in Trump's favor. Last updates on that Sept 13 and Sept 14 in 4 polls total. Proof.
TODAY'S POLL: NO ADJUSTMENT (A CHANGE OF +1 CLINTON). WHAT CHANGED, NATE?

And I haven't even mentioned that he unskews LA Times by 4 points against Trump ...
 
Bob a number three you are excited about for a Trump presidency is the end to any conspiracies right? Like he definitely would disclose aliens, JFK, etc...
 
Bob a number three you are excited about for a Trump presidency is the end to any conspiracies right? Like he definitely would disclose aliens, JFK, etc...

I don't expect that and don't think the government knows anymore than the public when it comes to MOST ufo cases. However, there are some, like the Cash-Landrum Case, where I think it was likely a secret aircraft and they DO have info. This was a case where the witnesses suffered physical effects. One of the reasons I think it was one of ours is because a number of Chinooks were seen at the same time. There is speculation it was a secret craft making a test flight that they lost control of.
 
Pennsylvania & Colorado are now dead-heats:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/26/polit...linton-colorado-pennsylvania-polls/index.html

CNN/ORC polls: Trump, Clinton deadlocked in Colorado, Pennsylvania

(CNN)Just one point separates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in two states that are critical to both candidates' chances of becoming president, according to new CNN/ORC polls in Pennsylvania and Colorado.

In Colorado, likely voters break 42% for Trump, 41% for Clinton, 13% for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3% for Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Pennsylvania's likely voters split 45% for Clinton, 44% for Trump, 6% for Johnson and 3% for Stein. Those divides are well within each poll's 3.5-point margin of sampling error.

The new results in two battleground states underscore the closeness of the race and come as the candidates prepare to square off Monday night in their high-stakes first debate at Long Island's Hofstra University.

In both states, sharp divisions among whites by education are evident, with white college graduates choosing Clinton over Trump by 11 points in Pennsylvania and 16 points in Colorado, while whites who do not hold four-year degrees break in Trump's favor by 19 points in Pennsylvania and 22 points in Colorado.

In Colorado, that education gap is a bigger divide than gender or age, and is even larger than the racial gap in the state. Pennsylvania's likely voters are more divided than Colorado's along gender and racial lines. Johnson's appeal among younger voters appears to be working to Clinton's detriment in both states. While Trump's numbers are significantly lower among voters under 45 than among older voters, Clinton's are roughly the same across age groups, while Johnson's support multiplies among younger voters.

Clinton fares better in two-way matchups in both states, topping Trump 50% to 47% among likely voters in Pennsylvania and 49% to 47% in Colorado. Though both results are within the polls' margin of sampling error, the finding suggests she could fare better in each state if third party candidate support dipped. The two polls come alongside tight national polls and neck-and-neck poll results in several other key battleground states including Ohio, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina.

In both Colorado and Pennsylvania, the economy stands out as far and away the top voter concern. About half of registered voters in each state, and a similar share of likely voters, call the economy most important out of a list also including terrorism, illegal immigration and foreign policy. And when asked which candidate would better handle the economy, Trump comes out on top in both states, though within each poll's margin of error.

The poll suggests Clinton has made an effective case that Trump does not have the temperament to be president -- she is viewed as better suited for the presidency by a nearly two-to-one margin in each state on that score -- and she holds smaller advantages as the better candidate to be commander-in-chief. But Clinton continues to lag behind Trump when voters are asked which of the two is more honest and trustworthy.

Trump's contention that Clinton lacks the stamina for the job splits voters in Colorado, 48% see him as having the better stamina, 45% choose Clinton. In Pennsylvania, Trump holds a larger advantage on that, 50% to 45%.

The CNN/ORC Polls in Colorado and Pennsylvania were conducted by telephone Sept. 20-25. The Colorado poll included interviews with 1,010 adult residents of the state, including 784 who are likely to vote in November. In Pennsylvania, interviews were conducted with 1,032 adult residents of the state, including 771 likely voters. Results for likely voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in each state.
 
The Trump signs are strong in PA, that's for sure.

Seeing a few more HC signs but still not many. This not-ironic poster cracked me up a Dem. voter registration table I saw at a street fair this weekend:

hillary_rays1.jpg
 
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