I would probably go about 65% stop in a reasonable amount of time after kicking the field goal and about 20% after going for the touchdown. The main difference is stopping them in a reasonable amount of time. Odds are we will waste a timeout, and use clock while trying to score. That cuts down on our chances to stop them in a reasonable amount of time. FSU would also open up the playbook which would increase their odds of getting a first down. The cumulative effect is significant in my opinion.
I love how you ask for numbers and then summarily dismiss anything that doesn't match up with your opinion. I get it, you think we should have gone for it. You have an opinion and so do other people. That is what they are, opinions. There is no objective basis for ruling either opinion out in this case. Like I said from the beginning. Clawson was dealing with a coin flip.
OK I used your numbers except tried to help those arguing go for TD by saying 25% after going for a touchdown if we don't convert the two and only 20 % if we converted the two point conversion:
Option 2 - Go for Touchdown
1. Go for 4th and 1 at 6 yard line (45% make first down, 15% score touchdown, 40% miss/game over) - I think 60% make rate is about right in that scenario.
1a. - If First down made, Odds TD is scored next four plays (70% TD, 30% turn ball over on next set of downs)
Total TD make on drive = 15% + (45% * 70%) = 46.5%
1b. Go for 2 point conversion (45%) - Same as above
Total after first drive = 53.5% Game Over, 25.575% down 5, 20.925% down 3
Down 5:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (25%) - I'll go lower than FG scenario due to less time on clock some of the time post score
3. Drive and score TD to win (10%) - lower than 20% above given possibly less time
Down 3:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (15% - FSU only ahead by 3 would resort to passing, end around, trick play or whatever it takes to prevent Wake from getting ball back with a chance to tie with a FG)
3. Drive and score TD to win (5% -FSU would have done whatever it took to get some first downs and run some clock before giving us the ball back), Drive and score FG to tie (15%), Drive Fails (80%)
4. If Overtime, win percentage (40%) - Same earlier
Total win % = (25.575% * 25% * 10%) PLUS (20.925 * 20% * 5%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 40%)
Total Win Percentage = 2.10 percent
I do agree with you. I don't understand either why someone would start a thread with their numbers, challenge others to run the calculation using their own numbers, when others don't comply by working through the calculation again ask them to run the calculation, and each time I do that (playing by the exact prescribed rules) I'm told my numbers aren't reasonable.