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Trump Will Win the Nomination

Every twin post just reminds you why trump is running away with it and has a chance at winning the whole damn thing
 
wfumike02 said:
And of course Pat Buchanan represents the thoughts of all republicans.
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I didn't say he did, but I would certainly argue that Buchanan and Trump are on similar wavelengths politically. My question was earnest, what does "let's go back to the good old days" mean to you or Deac89?
 
Trump doubled down on "the wall" and banning Muslims from entering the US in an interview with Lester Holt.
 
tintinisahottie said:
Every twin post just reminds you why trump is running away with it and has a chance at winning the whole damn thing
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It's difficult to call trailing by 13 points to the presumptive nominee of the other party "running away with it." I'm not sure how a liberal in Massachusetts and his quasi-liberal twin in North Carolina explains why the Republican party nominated Donald Trump out of 17 candidates or has a chance to win the whole election.
 
Probably in a similar way to 2&2's theory that Obama is solely and wholly responsible for Trump being the Republican nominee.
 
The once formidable Clinton lead over Trump keeps shrinking according to RCP. If the downward trend continues for Clinton (and it should given the flurry of attacks we'll soon start seeing), it's looking like Trump by 2-3% in November.
 
Saw a tweet yesterday that of the 220 polls conducted leading up to the 2012 general election, a total of one poll had Obama with as big as a 13 point lead (and it was 13). Obama still won by 3 million votes (3%) and 100+ EV's. Tough to get any real trends from the RCP polling too. Hillary was only up by 3-4 points 8-10 months ago, got an 11 point lead 6 weeks ago, and now it's back to 6 or 7.

ETA: Data from 538 pollster ratings is a couple years old, but both Rasmussen (Trump +2 in recent poll) and CNN (Clinton +13) have slight Republican biases in polling. Rasmussen at +2.3 for Republicans and CNN at +.6 for Republicans.
 
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It's fallen to around 6% pretty quickly. If it keeps dropping at the same rate it should be 3-4% by the end of the month.
 
Nate Silver has really hurt his brand this election, letting his love for Hillary cloud his judgment.
 
The only reason it has fallen is the inaccurate Rasmussen robopoll.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
It's not his love of Hillary, it's his absolute loathing of Trump.
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I don't think numbers does either.

Nate Silver's metrics don't really account for someone like Trump and his appeal.
 
The Hillary voters look at Trump and think, "There is no way Hillary will lose to this clown." And they're right in thinking Trump is a clown. But what they fail to grasp is how unlikable Hillary is, especially when up against someone who will not hesitate to bring up her dirty laundry.
 
Well the message of all the candidates who made it through was that America was broken and we were on the edge of a cliff (Ted Cruz last Sunday). jhmd and his crumb-snatchers prattle on and on about illegitimate births and how they are ruining America and wasting their tax dollars and causing crime. so:

Let's talk about the marginal tax rates in the 50s and 60s on all income levels.

Let's talk about health care in the 50s and 60s for all income levels.

Let's talk about the national debt as a % of GDP after the war.

Let's talk about unemployment then and now.

Let's talk about crime rates then and now.

Feel free to research and compare the "good old days" with today. I think you will find all of the sky is falling rhetoric from the GOP candidates (and constituents) is not substantiated by the facts.

So that leads the observer to reckon that that rheteroic - couched in these 'issues' which are not backed up by numbers/facts - are merely dog whistles for:

"The blacks have progressed..

women have progressed..

homosexuals have progressed...

_________ group has progressed..

...since the 'good old days."


Do you see how folks outside the conservative echo-chamber are left scratching their heads about what the fuck the GOP is talking about, and constantly wringing their hands over? I'm not calling anyone a racist/misogynist/homophobe, I'm just pointing out how it looks to ouside observers who watch conservatives shit their pants over non-issues while ignoring real issues - specifically wealth inequality.
 
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PhDeac said:
I don't think numbers does either.

Nate Silver's metrics don't really account for someone like Trump and his appeal.
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Yeah I just meant to the extent that there is a bias/issue with the methodology and prognostications I think it stems more from him hating Trump than liking Hillary - if either plays a role. I think you're right Ph in that the model struggles to account for a populist candidate like Trump who comes out of nowhere.
 
Can Trump make Hillary as toxic as he is. I think that's his challenge and what has to happen for him to have a chance at winning. I doubt he can but maybe he will get some help from the FBI.
 
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