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General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

Seems like you're working with some Karl Rove mathematical calculations, the polls are what they are. Seems you didn't need the spin when Trump appeared to be doing better a week ago. Though I still haven't figure out who these people are that wildly swing from one person to the next, which apparently looking historically happens every single election. It's mind blowing.
 
Right now the EC looks like exactly what I predicted to bkf two weeks ago. I think Nevada will go to Trump but other than that lock it in.
 
ThinkingWithMyDeac said:
Seems like you're working with some Karl Rove mathematical calculations, the polls are what they are. Seems you didn't need the spin when Trump appeared to be doing better a week ago. Though I still haven't figure out who these people are that wildly swing from one person to the next, which apparently looking historically happens every single election. It's mind blowing.
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Trump is easily the most controversial, polarizing presidential candidate in my lifetime. He and his supporters are routinely mocked, insulted, assaulted, and demonized. A lot of people don't have the courage to publicly admit they're voting for him, for fear of what others might think. We've seen polls be off with controversial conservatives in the past but Trump is off the charts when it comes to being controversial. I think something similar to the Shy Tory effect will be at play. Maybe I'll be wrong. But if I'm right, please be sure to give me props.
 
BobStackFan4Life said:
Okay, we'll see. If I'm right about him doing 3-4% better than polling would indicate, please remember to call me a genius who has a much better grasp of the pulse of America than you or anyone else on this board.
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You can't grasp pulses. #TrumpVoterFilth
 
Deacsfan27 said:
You would vote for a white nationalist, antisemitic conspiracy theorist, Holocaust denying, former Imperial Wizard of the KKK before voting for Hillary Clinton?
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Why are you bringing up Hillary's mentor, Robert Byrd? I thought he was dead.
 
General Election Thread:Under 40 Days

The shy effect can cut both ways in that the lack of enthusiasm reflects in the polls but not the eventual outcome. So you call your sampling of people who is more likely to answer the enthusiastic energized person or the I guess I'm going with Hillary just because no Trump. See I feel this is right and believe it to be true, and therefore it is.
 
knowell said:
Why are you bringing up Hillary's mentor, Robert Byrd? I thought he was dead.
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AP_040722026396-1-640x480.jpg

In 2010, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton fondly eulogized Sen. Robert Byrd, a former member and recruiter for the Ku Klux Klan. Clinton called Byrd “my friend and mentor” in a video message to commemorate his passing.
As a young man in West Virginia, Byrd was involved in the KKK and reportedly recruited 150 members to the group. While serving in Congress, Byrd set the record for longest filibuster on the floor of the U.S. Senate with a 14-hour filibuster of the 1964 Civil Rights Act.
 
BobStackFan4Life said:
AP_040722026396-1-640x480.jpg

In 2010, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton fondly eulogized Sen. Robert Byrd, a former member and recruiter for the Ku Klux Klan. Clinton called Byrd “my friend and mentor” in a video message to commemorate his passing.
As a young man in West Virginia, Byrd was involved in the KKK and reportedly recruited 150 members to the group. While serving in Congress, Byrd set the record for longest filibuster on the floor of the U.S. Senate with a 14-hour filibuster of the 1964 Civil Rights Act.
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You can tell a lot about a person by whom they chose for a mentor. She should have been mentored by someone like Trump.
 
BobStackFan4Life said:
Trump is easily the most controversial, polarizing presidential candidate in my lifetime. He and his supporters are routinely mocked, insulted, assaulted, and demonized. A lot of people don't have the courage to publicly admit they're voting for him, for fear of what others might think. We've seen polls be off with controversial conservatives in the past but Trump is off the charts when it comes to being controversial. I think something similar to the Shy Tory effect will be at play. Maybe I'll be wrong. But if I'm right, please be sure to give me props.
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Why didn't this effect happen in the primary polls? If anything, Trump's support was overstated in the polls in most states during the primaries.
 
ThinkingWithMyDeac said:
Right now the EC looks like exactly what I predicted to bkf two weeks ago. I think Nevada will go to Trump but other than that lock it in.
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Trump is down 6% in NV according to a poll that came out today and down 4% in FL.

Obama won FL by about 1/5 of 1%.
 
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