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John Collins is #2 in KP's All-ACC Ratings

So, is he still #2? I was thinking his recent run of games might have jumped him to #1?
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
Nothing in that scenario is realistic.
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Fine define the scenarios. There are really 4 (actually unlimited).

1. Leaves this year - but doesn't get to a 3rd NBA contract
2. Leaves this year - does get to a 3rd NBA contract
3. Leaves next year - but doesn't get to a 3rd NBA contract
4. Leaves next year - but does get to a 3rd NBA contract.

Assign a percentage chance to 1 and 2 and a separate percentage to 3 and 4. That would provide a rough estimate of what to expect.

All the matters is what is his cashflow for the next 12 years and they are not the same for all 4.
 
timdunkandthefunk said:
Of your three statements this one is the most wrong. I can see an argument for one (especially around now when a lot of teams only do walkthroughs at practice) and three is too vague to matter.
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Unless your head coach was the No. 1 Draft pick, College POY, and NBA All-Star, who had a long NBA career playing the same position as you. It's not like he's staying in the Syracuse system, coached by Boeheim (whose players don't translate well to the NBA), and only practicing zone defense.
 
Deac83 said:
To keep it simple, to illustrate the actual financial analysis that should be done for leaving, let's look at two options.

1. Leaves this year, hangs on enough to get a second contract but never really develops, in part because he wasn't quite ready.
2. Leaves in a year physically stronger more NBA ready and can contribute to an NBA team in year one. Develops accordingly and get several big contracts.

Year Leave now Leave in a year
1 4,000,000 0
2 4,000,000 3,500,000
3 4,000,000 3,500,000
4 4,000,000 3,500,000
5 2,000,000 3,500,000
6 2,000,000 6,000,000
7 2,000,000 6,000,000
8 500,000 6,000,000
9 500,000 10,000,000
10 500,000 10,000,000
11 500,000 10,000,000
12 500,000 10,000,000

NPV of option 1 is $20,203,086.92

NPV of option 2 is $48,622,640.32

As I stated before there are a lot of scenarios that the quants can run and determine what is the likelyhood of these or any combo.

If you want to run the numbers, I used 5% return for the calc. In Excel the formula is =NPV(rate, salary by year)

Of course the salaries can be adjusted based on what the real CBA is but it's really about what is the possibility of #1 happening vs. #2 and does staying a year make #2 more likely.
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I think we all know that we let KenPom decide these things for us...But nice analysis!
 
Deac83 said:
Fine define the scenarios. There are really 4 (actually unlimited).

1. Leaves this year - but doesn't get to a 3rd NBA contract
2. Leaves this year - does get to a 3rd NBA contract
3. Leaves next year - but doesn't get to a 3rd NBA contract
4. Leaves next year - but does get to a 3rd NBA contract.

Assign a percentage chance to 1 and 2 and a separate percentage to 3 and 4. That would provide a rough estimate of what to expect.

All the matters is what is his cashflow for the next 12 years and they are not the same for all 4.
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If Collins is good enough to play in the NBA, barring an injury, his career earnings after his first contract won't see a ~$25 million difference because of whether or not he returned for a third year. Your scenario essentially assumes two different players.

Your argument hinges on some breakout year that occurs one year later, thanks to that one year he stayed in school, that opens NBA front offices' eyes to his ability and are therefore willing to sign him to three times as much money per year over the length of his second contract. Which is silly.
 
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This has probably been discussed, but what how is the 2018 draft being assessed relative to the 2017 draft? Isn't 2017 supposed to be very strong?
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
If Collins is good enough to play in the NBA, barring an injury, his career earnings after his first contract won't see a ~$25 million difference because of whether or not he returned for a third year. Your scenario essentially assumes two different players.

Your argument hinges on some breakout year that occurs one year later, thanks to that one year he stayed in school, that opens NBA front offices' eyes to his ability and are therefore willing to sign him to three times as much money per year over the length of his second contract. Which is silly.
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No it assumes that if he's in the NBA next year at best he's sitting on the bench because he's not strong enough and does not have a complete game (i.e. don't think a team could use him for defensive purposes currently). But it is true that a Junior John Collins would be a different player than sophmore John Collins. When he makes the jump he would be able to get on the floor. The real argument against these scenarios is that John Collins would not develop into the same player by sitting on an NBA bench vs. playing for a, in theory, nationally ranked team. It would be foolish to just say a kid that isn't playing is automatically do everything needed to get playing time next year.

Look at a guy like Danny Green for the Spurs, he floated around for several years before the Spurs molded him into the player he is today. If he never makes it to the Spurs is he still in the league now?

With a 20 year old you can't just assume he's going to get the right guidance and coaching just because he's in the League.

Either way, it doesn't matter he's going to do what he thinks is best for him, but the general argument is that leaving this year will make you more money than if you stay. That is not a given.
 
Buttermaker said:
This has probably been discussed, but what how is the 2018 draft being assessed relative to the 2017 draft? Isn't 2017 supposed to be very strong?
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Wakeforest22890 said:
This year is likely to be stronger.
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Sounds like that is the only thing we've got going for us, really. If my google skills are correct, he'd be looking at a guarantee of $2.5MM if he's the last pick of the first round. He's got to go if that's the case.
 
Deac83 said:
No it assumes that if he's in the NBA next year at best he's sitting on the bench because he's not strong enough and does not have a complete game (i.e. don't think a team could use him for defensive purposes currently).
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Then your premise is that one year of college ball is good enough to save him from the bench but one year in the NBA is not.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
If Collins is good enough to play in the NBA, barring an injury, his career earnings after his first contract won't see a ~$25 million difference because of whether or not he returned for a third year. Your scenario essentially assumes two different players.

Your argument hinges on some breakout year that occurs one year later, thanks to that one year he stayed in school, that opens NBA front offices' eyes to his ability and are therefore willing to sign him to three times as much money per year over the length of his second contract. Which is silly.
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Yeah it seems safer to assume that his second contract will be the same whether he stays or goes. If that's the case then it makes financial sense for him to go unless he can improve his stock by at least 10 spots.

Collins ceiling is probably late lottery. If he's being projected late first round it might make sense for him to stay. If he's projected higher than 22 or so then he should go.
 
deac29 said:
Collins Projected 19th pick in Chad Ford's (ESPN) latest mock:
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...ock-draft-30-picks-lakers-celtics-sixers-more
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Here is his blurb on Collins:
"The Hawks' entire crop of power forwards is set to enter free agency this summer. Collins ranks second in the NCAA in player efficiency rating (PER).

He's crazy efficient around the basket, a great athlete and a very good defender. He may be the most underrated player on the board. I won't be surprised if he moves up significantly before the draft."
 
The current ACC all-KP team:

1. Donovan Mitchell L'ville
2. Bonzie Colson ND
3. John Collins WF
4. Luke Kennard Duke
5. London Perrantes UVA

No, UNC players.
 
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