Nothing in that scenario is realistic.
Nothing in that scenario is realistic.
So, is he still #2? I was thinking his recent run of games might have jumped him to #1?
So, is he still #2? I was thinking his recent run of games might have jumped him to #1?
Of your three statements this one is the most wrong. I can see an argument for one (especially around now when a lot of teams only do walkthroughs at practice) and three is too vague to matter.
To keep it simple, to illustrate the actual financial analysis that should be done for leaving, let's look at two options.
1. Leaves this year, hangs on enough to get a second contract but never really develops, in part because he wasn't quite ready.
2. Leaves in a year physically stronger more NBA ready and can contribute to an NBA team in year one. Develops accordingly and get several big contracts.
Year Leave now Leave in a year
1 4,000,000 0
2 4,000,000 3,500,000
3 4,000,000 3,500,000
4 4,000,000 3,500,000
5 2,000,000 3,500,000
6 2,000,000 6,000,000
7 2,000,000 6,000,000
8 500,000 6,000,000
9 500,000 10,000,000
10 500,000 10,000,000
11 500,000 10,000,000
12 500,000 10,000,000
NPV of option 1 is $20,203,086.92
NPV of option 2 is $48,622,640.32
As I stated before there are a lot of scenarios that the quants can run and determine what is the likelyhood of these or any combo.
If you want to run the numbers, I used 5% return for the calc. In Excel the formula is =NPV(rate, salary by year)
Of course the salaries can be adjusted based on what the real CBA is but it's really about what is the possibility of #1 happening vs. #2 and does staying a year make #2 more likely.
Fine define the scenarios. There are really 4 (actually unlimited).
1. Leaves this year - but doesn't get to a 3rd NBA contract
2. Leaves this year - does get to a 3rd NBA contract
3. Leaves next year - but doesn't get to a 3rd NBA contract
4. Leaves next year - but does get to a 3rd NBA contract.
Assign a percentage chance to 1 and 2 and a separate percentage to 3 and 4. That would provide a rough estimate of what to expect.
All the matters is what is his cashflow for the next 12 years and they are not the same for all 4.
If Collins is good enough to play in the NBA, barring an injury, his career earnings after his first contract won't see a ~$25 million difference because of whether or not he returned for a third year. Your scenario essentially assumes two different players.
Your argument hinges on some breakout year that occurs one year later, thanks to that one year he stayed in school, that opens NBA front offices' eyes to his ability and are therefore willing to sign him to three times as much money per year over the length of his second contract. Which is silly.
This has probably been discussed, but what how is the 2018 draft being assessed relative to the 2017 draft? Isn't 2017 supposed to be very strong?
This year is likely to be stronger.
No it assumes that if he's in the NBA next year at best he's sitting on the bench because he's not strong enough and does not have a complete game (i.e. don't think a team could use him for defensive purposes currently).
he'd be looking at a guarantee of $2.5MM if he's the last pick of the first round. He's got to go if that's the case.
If Collins is good enough to play in the NBA, barring an injury, his career earnings after his first contract won't see a ~$25 million difference because of whether or not he returned for a third year. Your scenario essentially assumes two different players.
Your argument hinges on some breakout year that occurs one year later, thanks to that one year he stayed in school, that opens NBA front offices' eyes to his ability and are therefore willing to sign him to three times as much money per year over the length of his second contract. Which is silly.
Collins Projected 19th pick in Chad Ford's (ESPN) latest mock:
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...ock-draft-30-picks-lakers-celtics-sixers-more