NC State ACC KP Report
This is WF's 2nd game against State; so, this is analysis is limited to State's KP ranking among the 15 ACC teams:
State is 14-11 (3-9). State's overall KP ranked peaked at 35 to start the season, and now has dropped to a season low #93. After a 26 point win over VT on January 4, State is 2-8 in its last 10 games with a narrow (and fortunate) win over a Pitt, and a shocking win at Duke. State is coming off a 24 point loss at FSU, which was not as close as the score indicated. After WF, State hosts UNC. KP projects a final ACC record of 4-14 for State.
State is ranked as the #13 offensive team in the ACC. State is DFL in FT% (.64%) and in giving up steals (State gives up a steal on more than 10% of its offensive possessions). State is also #13 in T0% (19% of all State possessions result in a TO), they are also poor at shooting the 3 (36.7% #12). State does shoot 2 point shots well in conference play 52% #4.
State is the worst defensive team in the ACC. State is weak across the board on D, but is particularly bad at defending the 3 (43% #15), failing to cause TOs (#13) and allowing offensive rebounds #12. State is also DFL in length of defensive possessions as State's defensive possessions last (shortest) 16.2 seconds on average, which means State's is susceptible to surrendering transition baskets. State is the #1 tempo team in the ACC. In its last 6 ACC games, State has given up 84 or more points in every game.
State has good size: 6-3, 6-5, 6-7, 6-8 and 7-0. None of State's bigs (Yurtseven, Anya, Abu, Kapita) shoot the 3.
When State and WF played on January 21, Abu scored 20, and Dennis Smith had 15 points 13 assists and 7 rebounds. State shot poorly 6 for 26 from 3; WF didn't shoot much better 6 for 22 from 3. Collins had his usual big game (21 pts 7 for 9; 9 rebounds; JC fouled out). Keyshawn also played well 18 points (7 for 10).
KP projects a 91-81 WF win and win probability of 83% (other than the home game against BC this is the highest win probability for WF in any ACC game). As bad as WF has been in recent years, WF has beaten State at home 4 times in a row. Ty Walker played for WF the last time WF lost to State at the Joel. WF has to have this game as WF has two roadies (Clemson and Duke) following tomorrow's game. Would like to see WF jump on the Pack early, and not give the Pack hope.