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The Way Too Early KenPom Report

Liquid Karma said:
I don't have much a problem with advanced stats and models like Kenpom, but you would think there would be some way to account for a team being ranked in the 30's without actually beating a single top 50 team. Eventually you should luck into at least one win if you really are that good relative to your peers, right?
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No, because each game is independent. That you've lost 19 coin tosses in a row doesn't mean the 20th "should" be a win.

Also wins and losses don't matter to KP's rating at all. To the system these are just arbitrary 40 minute distinctions where you played a team with X offensive efficiency and Y defensive efficiency. Since wins and losses don't matter there wouldn't be any "accounting" for not having an actual win against a team ranked in the top X spots.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
No, because each game is independent. That you've lost 19 coin tosses in a row doesn't mean the 20th "should" be a win.

Also wins and losses don't matter to KP's rating at all. To the system these are just arbitrary 40 minute distinctions where you played a team with X offensive efficiency and Y defensive efficiency. Since wins and losses don't matter there wouldn't be any "accounting" for not having an actual win against a team ranked in the top X spots.
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Ah, I think I see the problem now. Clearly Manning and the team have become disciples of KenPom and are dedicated to maximizing their Kp rating and can't be bothered with wins and losses since they don't matter!
 
Neurodeac said:
Ah, I think I see the problem now. Clearly Manning and the team have become disciples of KenPom and are dedicated to maximizing their Kp rating and can't be bothered with wins and losses since they don't matter!
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Wins and losses clearly matter, but they aren't useful predictors of future play on their own merit. If you go 30-0 and win each game by 1 against sub 300 competition and face off against a team that's 20-10, but has played a hard schedule and won several of those games by double-digits, then which team are you taking?
 
Neurodeac said:
Ah, I think I see the problem now. Clearly Manning and the team have become disciples of KenPom and are dedicated to maximizing their Kp rating and can't be bothered with wins and losses since they don't matter!
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How do you use the Kenpom numbers to come up with a spread on a game? Which numbers do you use and how do you account for home court?
 
scooter84 said:
How do you use the Kenpom numbers to come up with a spread on a game? Which numbers do you use and how do you account for home court?
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If you are a subscriber (highly suggest!) they give you score projections for each game within the team page.
 
Why so serious Df27? My comment was clearly not.
 
FckVwls said:
If you are a subscriber (highly suggest!) they give you score projections for each game within the team page.
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Can you not do it yourself using the numbers they provide? I don't think I am going to pay for a subscription....
 
scooter84 said:
Can you not do it yourself using the numbers they provide? I don't think I am going to pay for a subscription....
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It's kind of hard to exactly do it because you have to factor in team strength coupled with pace (they also predict the number of possessions in the game) coupled with home court. I'm sure it could be done from front page only data but not super simple.
 
scooter84 said:
Can you not do it yourself using the numbers they provide? I don't think I am going to pay for a subscription....
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Yes. You can either look up the formulas or use a website that has an app with the formulas already input & you just have to input the individual team metrics.
 
ChaosDeac said:
Yes. You can either look up the formulas or use a website that has an app with the formulas already input & you just have to input the individual team metrics.
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There you go, sorry. Makes sense someone would have done this.
 
Yeah if you're a big college basketball fan, it's worth paying for the annual subscription fee IMO.
 
When you subscribe, you can identify which team you follow most closely.

There is a page on the KP website which ranks the number of followers for each school from #1 (Kansas) to a bunch of schools tied for last. WF is #32 (which is pretty good, but we have more than 6 times fewer followers than Kansas)

Here's the popularity rank for all ACC schools on the KP website:

2. UVA (surprised)
3. Duke
4. UNC
13. L'ville
16. Cuse
20. ND
31. State
32. WF
38. Pitt
42. FSU
47. VT
66. Clemson and GT
72. BC and Miami
 
RChildress107 said:
You can do a rough estimate by taking the difference between adjusted effective margins, multiplying by average pace and then giving 3 points to the home team
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This is what I was looking for... But I don't think I follow... As described this would lead to a very large number (unless I am missing something).

I looked up a couple of formulas online and they are more complicated but make sense. The best I can tell, current numbers predict a score of the Wake-State game of
Wake 97 NCSU 85

I ran the numbers for Duke-UNC (these numbers are a little off since they include any adjustments made for the game already played last night) and came up with
Duke 83 UNC 84

Does that make sense?
 
Pilch, I'm guessing KU has many more than merely 600% more alumni than Wake, not to mention an entire state. UVA is a huge surprise.
 
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NC State ACC KP Report

This is WF's 2nd game against State; so, this is analysis is limited to State's KP ranking among the 15 ACC teams:

State is 14-11 (3-9). State's overall KP ranked peaked at 35 to start the season, and now has dropped to a season low #93. After a 26 point win over VT on January 4, State is 2-8 in its last 10 games with a narrow (and fortunate) win over a Pitt, and a shocking win at Duke. State is coming off a 24 point loss at FSU, which was not as close as the score indicated. After WF, State hosts UNC. KP projects a final ACC record of 4-14 for State.

State is ranked as the #13 offensive team in the ACC. State is DFL in FT% (.64%) and in giving up steals (State gives up a steal on more than 10% of its offensive possessions). State is also #13 in T0% (19% of all State possessions result in a TO), they are also poor at shooting the 3 (36.7% #12). State does shoot 2 point shots well in conference play 52% #4.

State is the worst defensive team in the ACC. State is weak across the board on D, but is particularly bad at defending the 3 (43% #15), failing to cause TOs (#13) and allowing offensive rebounds #12. State is also DFL in length of defensive possessions as State's defensive possessions last (shortest) 16.2 seconds on average, which means State's is susceptible to surrendering transition baskets. State is the #1 tempo team in the ACC. In its last 6 ACC games, State has given up 84 or more points in every game.

State has good size: 6-3, 6-5, 6-7, 6-8 and 7-0. None of State's bigs (Yurtseven, Anya, Abu, Kapita) shoot the 3.

When State and WF played on January 21, Abu scored 20, and Dennis Smith had 15 points 13 assists and 7 rebounds. State shot poorly 6 for 26 from 3; WF didn't shoot much better 6 for 22 from 3. Collins had his usual big game (21 pts 7 for 9; 9 rebounds; JC fouled out). Keyshawn also played well 18 points (7 for 10).

KP projects a 91-81 WF win and win probability of 83% (other than the home game against BC this is the highest win probability for WF in any ACC game). As bad as WF has been in recent years, WF has beaten State at home 4 times in a row. Ty Walker played for WF the last time WF lost to State at the Joel. WF has to have this game as WF has two roadies (Clemson and Duke) following tomorrow's game. Would like to see WF jump on the Pack early, and not give the Pack hope.
 
Just give the ball to John Collins and limit DSJ. State can't stop Collins with their post men.
 
If Gott could coach, this would be a really tough game. Hell, if Gott could coach, the'yd be a Top 20 team.
 
scooter84 said:
This is what I was looking for... But I don't think I follow... As described this would lead to a very large number (unless I am missing something).

I looked up a couple of formulas online and they are more complicated but make sense. The best I can tell, current numbers predict a score of the Wake-State game of
Wake 97 NCSU 85

I ran the numbers for Duke-UNC (these numbers are a little off since they include any adjustments made for the game already played last night) and came up with
Duke 83 UNC 84

Does that make sense?
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Divide by 100.

For State game I eyeball it as 9 (difference in adj EM) *.705 (average pace /100) +3 for home court advantage = ~ +9.5
 
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