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Stay John Collins!

KitchinDeac said:
I certainly hope Danny and staff are making these stupid arguments to Collins to try to get him to stay. If he is told he will go in the first round he should leave. Period. Giving any contrary advice only hurts Collins and Wake in the long-run.
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This is a bad post. He should weigh the risks, long term potential earnings, personal goals, etc. and make an informed decision. Which is what he's going to do.
 
KitchinDeac said:
I certainly hope Danny and staff are making these stupid arguments to Collins to try to get him to stay. If he is told he will go in the first round he should leave. Period. Giving any contrary advice only hurts Collins and Wake in the long-run.
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Right. Like post Tim Duncan. Begging that kid to stay really hurt us in the long-run. Oh wait ...

There's an argument to be made both ways. In the end, as a coaching staff, you provide Collins the honest information gathered from NBA contacts and pundits and share with him. Here's what happens if you go. Here's what could happen if you stay. Here's what could also happen. Here's what happens if you get injured.

In the end, Collins has to figure out how happy he is at Wake, whether the potential gains and good times from staying out weigh the risks of staying. He's a kid. Kids make kid decisions. Based on family and body language etc.., he is more likely to stay than most kids in his position but that makes it about a 50/50 proposition from my perch on far.

He wouldn't be stupid for staying. He wouldn't be stupid for going.

Selfishly, I hope he stays. Manning has an interesting narrative to share. A guy with a dominant college game and complimentary pro game chose to stay and won a championship then made plenty of money in the pros, though he never had the combination of a productive year on a fun, playoff team. It was a job for Manning, and one that came with a lot of money and a lot of media criticism, etc. If Manny had not have won a college championship, the historical narrative on him would be completely different. Journeyman pro player despite being a top 3 NBA pick. But he did stay, he did win, and those three weeks in March totally define his athletic career way more than his 13+ NBA career.
 
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You are trying to compare John to two #1 picks. As much as I love John and his improvement, he's incredibly unlikely to become the #1 pick. Also, if Danny leaves after his soph year, we don't know if he gets injured as he did. Without the devastating injury he could have become an all-time great with his skill set. Thus, it's not a sure thing that Danny would have become a "journeyman. By the way. Danny was a two time All Star and NBA 6th Man of the Year.

Also, Tim and Danny are the Yin and Yang of being drafted highly. Tim got lucky when the Spurs won the lottery. Danny got unlucky when the Clippers did. This year John is more likely to be drafted by a solid franchise that can help him grow versus next year being in the middle of the lottery to be taken by a crap team with horrible management.

I would love for JC to come back and Wake be a Top 15 team., but it makes very, very sense for him.
 
jaybone said:
Right. Like post Tim Duncan. Begging that kid to stay really hurt us in the long-run. Oh wait ...

There's an argument to be made both ways. In the end, as a coaching staff, you provide Collins the honest information gathered from NBA contacts and pundits and share with him. Here's what happens if you go. Here's what could happen if you stay. Here's what could also happen. Here's what happens if you get injured.

In the end, Collins has to figure out how happy he is at Wake, whether the potential gains and good times from staying out weigh the risks of staying. He's a kid. Kids make kid decisions. Based on family and body language etc.., he is more likely to stay than most kids in his position but that makes it about a 50/50 proposition from my perch on far.

He wouldn't be stupid for staying. He wouldn't be stupid for going.

Selfishly, I hope he stays. Manning has an interesting narrative to share. A guy with a dominant college game and complimentary pro game chose to stay and won a championship then made plenty of money in the pros, though he never had the combination of a productive year on a fun, playoff team. It was a job for Manning, and one that came with a lot of money and a lot of media criticism, etc. If Manny had not have won a college championship, the historical narrative on him would be completely different. Journeyman pro player despite being a top 3 NBA pick. But he did stay, he did win, and those three weeks in March totally define his athletic career way more than his 13+ NBA career.
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I am not aware that Dave Odom begged Tim to stay. Tim decided to stay and it worked out for him. Totally irrelevant to Collins' decision.
 
RJKarl said:
This year John is more likely to be drafted by a solid franchise that can help him grow versus next year being in the middle of the lottery to be taken by a crap team with horrible management.
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I keep hearing this but I'm not actually sure how true it is. 1. The number of teams with truly horrible management is fairly limited. It's basically the Kings and the Knicks. 2. The teams with truly horrible management are more likely to have traded away their top draft picks.

Collins isn't going to go low enough to land on one of the top 5 or 6 teams and some of those teams (the Clips and Cavs come to mind) don't place a premium on developing young talent. He would arguably be better off landing on a team that is currently building a young core through the draft (Lakers, Sixers, Bucks, Suns, etc.) than a mid level team that is focused on winning now with more experienced players (Hornets, Hawks, Pacers, Portland, etc.)

I haven't looked at the data but I'd imagine that on the 3-4 years out you find more guys drafted 5-10 contributing to playoff teams than guys drafted 15-20.
 
Ultimately there a good reasons for either decision and I trust that Manning will first and foremost look out for the best interests of John Collins when helping him make a decision (Childress has come out and said as much). It's a win-win for Wake either way and I hope we treat John better than past Wake players regardless of his decision.
 
RChildress107 said:
I keep hearing this but I'm not actually sure how true it is. 1. The number of teams with truly horrible management is fairly limited. It's basically the Kings and the Knicks. 2. The teams with truly horrible management are more likely to have traded away their top draft picks.

Collins isn't going to go low enough to land on one of the top 5 or 6 teams and some of those teams (the Clips and Cavs come to mind) don't place a premium on developing young talent. He would arguably be better off landing on a team that is currently building a young core through the draft (Lakers, Sixers, Bucks, Suns, etc.) than a mid level team that is focused on winning now with more experienced players (Hornets, Hawks, Pacers, Portland, etc.)

I haven't looked at the data but I'd imagine that on the 3-4 years out you find more guys drafted 5-10 contributing to playoff teams than guys drafted 15-20.
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He's not going to end up on the Sixers or Lakers this year or next. The Suns have been crap for several years and don't look like they are improving any time soon. Obviously the Kings and Knicks are dumpster fires. Denver isn't well run. I know it's unpopular here, but the Hornets are badly run franchise. They don't compete for anything other than the last two playoff spots. The Magic haven't been really good since Shaq left.

JC's likely landing places year include Heat, Hawks, Bucks that are better run.
 
RChildress107 said:
Ultimately there a good reasons for either decision and I trust that Manning will first and foremost look out for the best interests of John Collins when helping him make a decision (Childress has come out and said as much). It's a win-win for Wake either way and I hope we treat John better than past Wake players regardless of his decision.
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TITCR.

If John goes, Danny has a great recruiting story to sell the next crop of big men, especially if he excels in the league. If he stays, we get another great year of his talent to continue the rebuild. I wish we'd been able to get past the play in game but getting at least a sniff of post season play in Danny's year 3 is like a cool drink of water after staggering out of the desert of bzaster.
 
When was the last time we had a potential lottery pick actually stay? I guess Aminu in 2009? If Collins is a lottery pick or close to it, he's gone. I just can't see him staying to learn how to play D.
 
Duncan was dating a cheerleader when he was at Wake who it ultimately married and later divorced. I don't think people realize how much that relationship and his friendships within the Wake community weighed on his decision to stay. Not many people are quite like Tim Duncan so let's not expect 1st round lottery picks to realistically stay in college instead of going pro.


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There are a couple of arguments that keep floating around here that to me just make no sense to me.

(1) Collins is young for his grade level. Ok...so what? Millions of people are young for their grade level and it makes no difference after about the 2nd grade. Dumb argument to support any position.

(2) Staying vs. going based on landing on a good franchise (early,mid, late pick, whatever). This whole thing is a crapshoot. You could win the lottery of lotteries like Duncan and have the ideal mentor to stand next to you on day 1, win unprecedented numbers of championships and be part of arguably the greatest pound for pound American sports franchise ever (extremely unlikely). Or you could end up at a dead end downward spiral somewhere (very unlikely). This argument gets exponentially weaker when you start trying to project that next years draft will set up better somehow? No

We know this much - The Wake staff will do right but John Collins and John and his family will make the best, most informed decision possible.


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YankeeInAtlanta said:
Duncan was dating a cheerleader when he was at Wake who it ultimately married and later divorced. I don't think people realize how much that relationship and his friendships within the Wake community weighed on his decision to stay. Not many people are quite like Tim Duncan so let's not expect 1st round lottery picks to realistically stay in college instead of going pro.


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Exactly. Collins will do what CP3/Teague/JJ did, not what Duncan did. Duncan was a special case and the NBA draft was much different in 1997. A senior (or even junior sometimes) in the draft, no matter the accolades, are considered "old" and over the hill.
 
Crystal Ball would be nice, but if Collins made an equal improvement from his 2nd to 3rd year as he did between 1&2 I could easily see him becoming a top 7 player in next year’s weaker draft. Even the year of no salary he could have the same amount in his pocket ( or a lot more) after 2 years in the league if he increased from his current position. I also think he would have more success in his early years if he added some muscle thus setting himself up for a better 2nd contact (where the big bucks roll in).

That being said, hard to blame him for leaving.
 
lazydeac said:
There are a couple of arguments that keep floating around here that to me just make no sense to me.

(1) Collins is young for his grade level. Ok...so what? Millions of people are young for their grade level and it makes no difference after about the 2nd grade. Dumb argument to support any position.

(2) Staying vs. going based on landing on a good franchise (early,mid, late pick, whatever). This whole thing is a crapshoot. You could win the lottery of lotteries like Duncan and have the ideal mentor to stand next to you on day 1, win unprecedented numbers of championships and be part of arguably the greatest pound for pound American sports franchise ever (extremely unlikely). Or you could end up at a dead end downward spiral somewhere (very unlikely). This argument gets exponentially weaker when you start trying to project that next years draft will set up better somehow? No

We know this much - The Wake staff will do right but John Collins and John and his family will make the best, most informed decision possible.


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I don't think the young for his grade argument is dumb or irrelevant. Seems like age is a key variable that the NBA crowd cares about. Fact that Collins is younger than several of the likely top one-and-done frosh is relevant in that it underscores Collins' potential.
 
MADeac said:
I don't think the young for his grade argument is dumb or irrelevant. Seems like age is a key variable that the NBA crowd cares about. Fact that Collins is younger than several of the likely top one-and-done frosh is relevant in that it underscores Collins' potential.
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I definitely think it's a positive that he's younger than most, agree with you that it underscores his potential and is relevant. Im just not sure how much that plays into a decision one way or the other. Should he stay because he's young - develop more physically, maturity, etc? Should/could he cash in on his youth now? I know everyone thinks the NBA draft is just potential these days but maybe it's more cultural? Shouldn't an NBA GM thank a John Collins who stay three years and proves his not a one year sophomore wonder, makes himself a safer bet? Would his stock plummet just because he lost that youth card?
 
greekdeac2011 said:
When was the last time we had a potential lottery pick actually stay? I guess Aminu in 2009? If Collins is a lottery pick or close to it, he's gone. I just can't see him staying to learn how to play D.
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Aminu was our last lottery pick so it makes sense. But I don't think he was projected lottery after his freshman year.
 
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