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2017 NBA Draft thread - JC drafted 19th to Atlanta, OUR... Hawks?

How about other factors?

Getting injured?
Going to a team where he won't get PT?
Going to a team that has bad management?
What happens if he gets passed on bizarrely like he did this year by Miami and Chicago?

He's in a perfect situation to maximize his potential. He's got a good coach, a good PG and plenty of immediate PT. None of these are close to guaranteed next year.
 
PhDeac said:
Yeah. Even in the context of a rookie NBA contract, $460K or $600K is huge.
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it's 9%. i should have used 9%. deepest apologies.

next year's 19th pick will make 9% more than this year's 19th pick.
 
RJKarl said:
So, to be right, you are assuming JC will suck. Nice position to take with a guy who has been dramatically improving.
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Nope. I assume he will keep improving but that his ceiling is probably a borderline all-star (Somewhere between Jeff Teague and Josh Howard).

Borderline all stars end their careers playing for the vet minimum, meaning that the "extra year," if he even gets it, isn't enough to make up a 5-10 spot jump in draft position.

I happen to think that JC is a good enough player and person to take his game to the next level such that in a year he would be worthy of a top 10 pick. I don't fault him at all for choosing to do that in Atlanta (I've never faulted a wake player for pursuing his dreams) but think he likely would have been better off financially (and perhaps professionally) by staying an extra year.

Bummed he missed out on Miami but glad he landed in ATL vs some other teams on the board.
 
moral of the story, there was 0 risk for JC to come back because unforeseen stuff never happens, and he had the potential to go as high as... idk i guess 10? when there was a much better than non-zero chance he might have been picked at 13 or 14 this year?
 
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RChildress107 said:
Nope. I assume he will keep improving but that his ceiling is probably a borderline all-star (Somewhere between Jeff Teague and Josh Howard).

Borderline all stars end their careers playing for the vet minimum, meaning that the "extra year," if he even gets it, isn't enough to make up a 5-10 spot jump in draft position.

I happen to think that JC is a good enough player and person to take his game to the next level such that in a year he would be worthy of a top 10 pick. I don't fault him at all for choosing to do that in Atlanta (I've never faulted a wake player for pursuing his dreams) but think he likely would have been better off financially (and perhaps professionally) by staying an extra year.

Bummed he missed out on Miami but glad he landed in ATL vs some other teams on the board.
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Between a one-time All-Star and a one-time All-Star is pretty good.
 
Dirrrty BBallBirds. Love it. We gotta make sure that we get a good haul back from a Millsaps sign and trade.

With Shroeder, Hardaway Jr, Prince and JC, they have a young talented core that could aspire to return to their 2015 form of 'best team that doesnt matter in the east', that the Celts rudely stole last year.
 
JC clearly made a good decision by heading to the "League". JC made a decision that the vast majority of those in his position would make. JC is guaranteed to make more than $5 million+ over the next 3 years. That is life changing money.

That said, had JC decided to stay at WF for his junior year that would not necessarily be a "wrong decision". If JC wanted to stay in college and bet on himself that he would be drafted even higher next year (given his massive improvement over the last year, given that the 2018 crop appears weaker, given that rookie salary scale will rise and given that JC may simply love college (which has value beyond monetary measure), that decision would be "right" too.

Was Malcolm Brogdon wrong to stay 4 years at UVA? He may be the NBA rookie of the year, and Brogdon made the all-rookie team. Can't see how the decision to stay in school was "wrong".

JC earned himself two great option. Kudos to him for getting to that level and kudos for cashing in now.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
his stock could drop for a bunch of reasons out of his control. i think he should have gotten drafted at bam's spot 14 but didn't. dj wilson shouldn't have gone ahead of him but did. now are we having this discussion if he goes lotto at 14? no way, but i think he did everything in his control to deserve that pick.
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DJ Wilson is baffling... The only thing he has on JC is wingspan

He's older by almost two years, averaged almost have as many pts and rbds per game, shitty per, and JC did all of his work in the ACC
 
RJKarl said:
How about other factors?

Getting injured?
Going to a team where he won't get PT?
Going to a team that has bad management?
What happens if he gets passed on bizarrely like he did this year by Miami and Chicago?

He's in a perfect situation to maximize his potential. He's got a good coach, a good PG and plenty of immediate PT. None of these are close to guaranteed next year.
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All but the first of those would be equally present next year.
 
So Jeff Teague has made more all star games than all Danny Ainge draft picks combined
 
RChildress107 said:
All but the first of those would be equally present next year.
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You missed the obvious point completely. Those are things that could happen next year, but didn't happen this year.

This year he ended up on a team with a good coach, good management and lots of PT available.

Next year he could have gotten picked by the T'wolves or another team with lots of young bigs or by Sactown or another shitty franchise.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
moral of the story, there was 0 risk for JC to come back because unforeseen stuff never happens, and he had the potential to go as high as... idk i guess 10? when there was a much better than non-zero chance he might have been picked at 13 or 14 this year?
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There's a non-zero chance he could have gone #5 next year. Unforeseen stuff happens, as you pointed out.

I think if you make reasonably optimistic assumptions (which everyone is making about his NBA career) and average all the possibilities out his predraft projection next year likely jumps somewhere around 5 spots.
 
RJKarl said:
You missed the obvious point completely. Those are things that could happen next year, but didn't happen this year.

This year he ended up on a team with a good coach, good management and lots of PT available.

Next year he could have gotten picked by the T'wolves or another team with lots of young bigs or by Sactown or another shitty franchise.
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Justifying the decision with the result isn't a sound way to evaluate decisions.
 
RChildress107 said:
My favorite part of this argument is the cognitive dissonance it takes to believe JC has the potential to be an all-star, will excel with plenty of playing time, and is virtually guaranteed to get a second contract while also thinking that he legitimately had to worry about his stock dropping if he came back next year.
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The funny thing is it's probably more likely for the above things to both be true about a player than they are to be mutually exclusive, on the average.

The nature of the draft is that teams exchange risk for ceiling in the lottery. Hence more unproven freshmen go early and known quantities go late.

A 230 pound freshman 7 footer can have a hot year shooting college 3's and get drafted 20 spots in front of a rock solid PF. Boom or bust wins out in the lottery.
 
RChildress107 said:
There's a non-zero chance he could have gone #5 next year. Unforeseen stuff happens, as you pointed out.

I think if you make reasonably optimistic assumptions (which everyone is making about his NBA career) and average all the possibilities out his predraft projection next year likely jumps somewhere around 5 spots.
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well DraftExpress final mock had him at #13, so it was reasonable to think he had a good chance of going there, and a lot of other mocks had him to Miami at #14.

I'd say it's pretty close to zero he could have gone 5 next year based on his prospect profile. he didn't slide because of lack of production, he slid because of measurables or else Bam and DJ, who aren't elite prospects, wouldn't have gone ahead of him. he can't change those things.
 
RChildress107 said:
Justifying the decision with the result isn't a sound way to evaluate decisions.
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But you did. You have based everything you posted on his being 19th this year. Every one of your calculations is premised on his pay scale. Like usual, you want it both ways.

When he made the decision, I bet he had some input from teams picking higher than 19th. Several "experts" had him going as high as 10-14.

The consensus at the end was the he would be picked by hometown Miami which is a top franchise and needed a player at his position. Before the insane Butler trade, it also looked like the Bulls might take him and they had PT for him.
 
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