2017 NBA Draft thread - JC drafted 19th to Atlanta, OUR... Hawks?

[RChildress107]

The funny thing is it's probably more likely for the above things to both be true about a player than they are to be mutually exclusive, on the average.

The nature of the draft is that teams exchange risk for ceiling in the lottery. Hence more unproven freshmen go early and known quantities go late.

A 230 pound freshman 7 footer can have a hot year shooting college 3's and get drafted 20 spots in front of a rock solid PF. Boom or bust wins out in the lottery.

This is nonsense. As a general rule, players that drop out of the top half of the first round don't become all stars.

Most players with "potential" never reach that potential. Which is why guys who are highly rated in mock drafts based on potential often fall when they return and don't meet that potential.

Returning when you could go in the first round is rare. Reaching your perceived potential is also rare. Those two things operate completely independently of each other.


But if we are going to assume that JC falls into the second category of rare, then examples of the first category that came back and dropped are of little use unless they later went on to become borderline all stars.

 

[RChildress107]

But you did. You have based everything you posted on his being 19th this year. Every one of your calculations is premised on his pay scale. Like usual, you want it both ways.

When he made the decision, I bet he had some input from teams picking higher than 19th. Several "experts" had him going as high as 10-14.

The consensus at the end was the he would be picked by hometown Miami which is a top franchise and needed a player at his position. Before the insane Butler trade, it also looked like the Bulls might take him and they had PT for him.

He went about where expected. His range was probably 14-22. I believe that if he improved as much as you and others (and I) think he is going to that his range next year would have been 8-14.

I'd be making the same arguments if he went to the Heat because y'all would be making the same stupid arguments to prove how "right" you were about how "right" JC's decision was.

 

[RChildress107]

well DraftExpress final mock had him at #13, so it was reasonable to think he had a good chance of going there, and a lot of other mocks had him to Miami at #14.

I'd say it's pretty close to zero he could have gone 5 next year based on his prospect profile. he didn't slide because of lack of production, he slid because of measurables or else Bam and DJ, who aren't elite prospects, wouldn't have gone ahead of him. he can't change those things.

Only reason I've heard of for his so called "slide" is maturity level. That certainly would have benefited from another year.

I also truly hope for his sake that JC had better information than a draftexpress mock.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

no one would gaf about being right if he had got to heat at #14. that's an absurd counterfactual.

the only reason this discussion is happening is because the dumb dumbs came on here and whined about him not coming back

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

Only reason I've heard of for his so called "slide" is maturity level. That certainly would have benefited from another year.

I also truly hope for his sake that JC had better information than a draftexpress mock.

i'm sure he did, but mock drafts are the best reflection of draft stock we have access to, are you being purposefully dense or just dense?

 

[DCDeac]

I love that you condemn strawman arguments then act like tons of posters are declaring JC an automatic All-Star...

You've clearly stopped considering any other facts in this argument and have just switched to incoherent ranting at blistering pace. When you post 3+ times in a row on one thread it might be time to take a deep breath, maybe re-read a few sentences...

Oh, and it's absurd to say the only reason you've heard of for the slide is maturity. Defensive concerns during workouts has been mentioned and re-mentioned a dozen times.

 

[PhDeac]

It's hard to criticize JC for coming out because he didn't get picked by shitty teams and teams that barely made the playoffs. He's in a good spot for a consistent playoff team that recognizes that they need to rebuild but doesn't plan on tanking.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

this has been a dumb argument i regret taking part in. we'll never know what would have happened next year, no point in talking about it anymore.

congrats to JC, it's always good to have another dude to follow in the league.

we should change to topic to how much of a stud Malik Monk is!

 

[dartsndeacs]

this has been a dumb argument i regret taking part in. we'll never know what would have happened next year, no point in talking about it anymore.

congrats to JC, it's always good to have another dude to follow in the league.

we should change to topic to how much of a stud Malik Monk is!

Dawight losing touches to a rookie should go over well.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

 

[Pilchard]

It's hard to criticize JC for coming out because he didn't get picked by shitty teams and teams that barely made the playoffs. He's in a good spot for a consistent playoff team that recognizes that they need to rebuild but doesn't plan on tanking.

Agree that JC found a good situation. Not sure about the tanking aspect yet. If they lose Milsap, which seems likely, it could be a tough few years in ATL. That said, if JC is a steal, the rebuild could be quicker than most.

 

[RJKarl]

He went about where expected. His range was probably 14-22. I believe that if he improved as much as you and others (and I) think he is going to that his range next year would have been 8-14.

I'd be making the same arguments if he went to the Heat because y'all would be making the same stupid arguments to prove how "right" you were about how "right" JC's decision was.

There you go again calling others stupid because they hold you accountable.

The reality is results do matter. Right now it's up to JC how well he does. He has a clear path to major minutes versus his PT being determined next year by which team picks him. Even without being an all star, his next contract could be in the $12-16M range as a starter versus half that if he spends his first contract on the bench or playing much for another team.

 

[RChildress107]

no one would gaf about being right if he had got to heat at #14. that's an absurd counterfactual.

the only reason this discussion is happening is because the dumb dumbs came on here and whined about him not coming back

I must have missed people whining about that, I admittedly joined the conversation late.

 

[WFUtoUSC]

But you did. You have based everything you posted on his being 19th this year. Every one of your calculations is premised on his pay scale. Like usual, you want it both ways.

When he made the decision, I bet he had some input from teams picking higher than 19th. Several "experts" had him going as high as 10-14.

The consensus at the end was the he would be picked by hometown Miami which is a top franchise and needed a player at his position. Before the insane Butler trade, it also looked like the Bulls might take him and they had PT for him.

RJ, what the fuck are you even arguing at this point? And the "consensus" was that he was going to get picked 14th and go to Miami? That's not accurate.

 

[RChildress107]

i'm sure he did, but mock drafts are the best reflection of draft stock we have access to, are you being purposefully dense or just dense?

I haven't found a good mock draft aggregator but after looking at 10 or so I saw him anywhere from 13-22 with an average in the 16-17 range.

Also mock drafts after the lottery is set aren't great indicators of overall draft stock.

 

[RChildress107]

I love that you condemn strawman arguments then act like tons of posters are declaring JC an automatic All-Star...

You've clearly stopped considering any other facts in this argument and have just switched to incoherent ranting at blistering pace. When you post 3+ times in a row on one thread it might be time to take a deep breath, maybe re-read a few sentences...

Oh, and it's absurd to say the only reason you've heard of for the slide is maturity. Defensive concerns during workouts has been mentioned and re-mentioned a dozen times.

If anything his stock rose during workouts (he was consistently higher in mocks the day before the draft than before the workouts) so I'm not sure WTF you are talking about. The concern around him has always been defense.

To the extent that he "slid" (based on a lot of mocks having him go to Miami at 14) on draft day the only explanation I have heard is that it might have been a maturity issue.

Tons of posters aren't declaring him an all-star but are operating under the assumption he will do well next year in ATL with plenty of PT and will stick in the league with All-Star potential.

 

[RChildress107]

There you go again calling others stupid because they hold you accountable.

The reality is results do matter. Right now it's up to JC how well he does. He has a clear path to major minutes versus his PT being determined next year by which team picks him. Even without being an all star, his next contract could be in the $12-16M range as a starter versus half that if he spends his first contract on the bench or playing much for another team.

Did you quote the wrong post?

My point is his decision wouldn't have been any better or worse if he had gone to Sacramento one pick later. The result would have been worse but not the decision.

 

[RChildress107]

It's hard to criticize JC for coming out because he didn't get picked by shitty teams and teams that barely made the playoffs. He's in a good spot for a consistent playoff team that recognizes that they need to rebuild but doesn't plan on tanking.

Who is criticizing him?

Plus the Nuggets, Heat, Pacers (with or without George), Bucks, and Timberwolves will all be better than the Hawks next year.

That's another weird part about this thread. It's ok to be happy for JC, agree that he made a good decision for himself, hope he does really well, AND acknowledge that he would have been way better off with the Heat and perhaps some other teams that passed on him.

 

[RChildress107]

When you post 3+ times in a row on one thread it might be time to take a deep breath, maybe re-read a few sentences...

Quoted again just to make it 5 in a row. Don't hate me because I can read quickly and still comprehend what I'm reading. Get a bigger phone.

 

[PhDeac]

Spurs first round pick Derrick White is the first Division II player to make the NBA since Ben Wallace. Hard to believe. He transfer to Colorado from UC-Colorado Springs for his senior year. Sitting out a transfer year paid off.