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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

deacfan123 said:
Idk, this is annoying. Either the metrics matter or they don't. If we are high in metrics and it doesn't matter because we don't win the right games, or if we are low and win the right games. It gets confusing. I know the answer is you need both, but which matters more? I feel like the right wins matters more and is why we are last four out instead of like a 6 seed.
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Right now wins matter more in the right games because we have the metrics in our favor. Rightfully so re: metrics. We have 4 20+ point Acc wins and there have only been 13 total across conference play.

Metrics like KP are solely predictive and not resume based at all. The NET is kind of a hybrid and the committee is looking at resume but also underlying numbers to assist in that assessment
 
Biff Tannen said:
Any metric where you can jump 10 ranking spots by beating a sub .500 team with 80% of the season gone is inherently flawed.
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Well look at it this way. Wake outperformed Duke and UNC by 15-17 possessions in the same location. Similarly, every game is worth roughly 3-3.5% of your overall season numbers. So vastly outperforming expectations in one game should see a relative boost and it has.

Again, we know (even if folks don’t admit it or accept it) that winning margin is predictive and predictive metrics reflect that
 
Wake is the 15th best team in the country on Torvik since Reid became eligible. Top 20 team since the start of the year and over our last 10 games. We’ve got the numbers. Get the wins and let’s go to the tourney.
 
Get to 13-7 in the conference and we shouldn't be on the bubble
 
Forbes says fuck your possessions, I want possessions where my damn walk-ons can play
 
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Before the last two games, the walk-ons had more minutes in conference play than Canka and Clark.
 
I think there’s a good argument that winning margin should be capped for NET purposes especially since each possession will still be reflected in the adjusted efficiency. However the winning margin cap should be way higher than the 10 it originally was. Thinking somewhere in the 25-30 range is right.
 
PhDeac said:
Before the last two games, the walk-ons had more minutes in conference play than Canka and Clark.
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Some of this is probably because Forbes asks all the scholarship guys if they wanna play before putting walk ons in. A lot of the time they say no
 
DeacsATS said:
If we aren't going to win Q1 games, the next best thing is to beat the everloving shit out of mediocre conference opponents.

Sucks, but that's how it works.
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yep. And now we hope that GT retains some pride and stays at or above their current ranking of #134 in the NET to keep last night as a Q2 win.

(not too much pride, though.... we don't want them walking into the Joel expecting to compete)
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Right now wins matter more in the right games because we have the metrics in our favor. Rightfully so re: metrics. We have 4 20+ point Acc wins and there have only been 13 total across conference play.

Metrics like KP are solely predictive and not resume based at all. The NET is kind of a hybrid and the committee is looking at resume but also underlying numbers to assist in that assessment
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This is going to be your "Rosebud."

"What were his last words?"
"He just kept whispering, 'Metrics like KP are solely predictive and not resume based . . .' and then he slipped away."
 
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Teams who are in the top 50 of NET with zero Q1 wins:

28 Gonzaga
32 Wake Forest
49 SMU

Of the wins WF has, Virginia (#34 in NET) and Florida (#39) could become Q1 wins.

Remaining opportunities for Q1 wins are

Duke x2
at UVA
at VPI (#54 - must stay top 75)
Clemson (#31 - must move into top 30 and stay there after we beat them)

2-3 in those five plus 4-0 in the others should get a double bye. Win the 4-5 game and get another shot at UNC on a neutral floor (or win the 3-6 game and get Duke). Either way we're in at that point.
 
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