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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

xmandeac said:
Dumb question: does net rating calculate quadrants based on the team's standing when you played them, or does it adjust throughout the year based on how that team does? Ex: we beat someone at home when they're ranked 100th, but they end the season at 20 - does that end up as a Q1 win?
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it's wherever they are at the end of the year
 
Using the NET from the end of the year makes perfect sense because it provides an entire season of data in setting the quadrants.

I mean to the extent that using quadrants makes any sense at all
 
BubbaJean said:
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The Quad system is stupid as has been discussed here forever. BUT

If WF has zero Q1 wins on Selection Sunday, they absolutely do not deserve a bid. We should be expecting to get, at worst, a split vs. Duke and a split vs. VPI/UVA. Plus either a win over Clemson that may count, and a win in the ACCT QF's on a neutral floor against a good team. It's all right there for the taking.
 
I don't think 2 Q1's will have us feeling safe, especially at 13-7. Gotta get at a minimum 2 in regular season and hopefully add on in ACCT. 3+ down the stretch would be amazing.
 
Using KP's win probability the chances of WF going 0-5 in the two games against Duke, and the single games against Clemson @UVA and @VT is: 2.9%. WF will be favored at home against Clemson, the home game against Duke and two roadies at UVA and VT should be around a pick, and even at Duke, WF will not be double digit dog. Yes, if WF managed to lose every one of those games, WF will not deserve a bid.
 
'23 NCSU - 1-6 in Q1; NET#45 (15-2 home / 4-6 road)
'21 Syracuse - 1-7 in Q1; NET#40 (13-1 home / 2-7 road)
'21 Drake - 1-2 in Q1; NET#45 (12-1 home / 9-2 road)
'19 Nevada - 1-1 in Q1; NET#23 (15-0 home / 9-3 road)

As always, there is context.

Nevada just didn't play many Q1 games, but their NET was top 25 the entire season. Drake was similar... And that was a weird COVID year. Syracuse kind of sucked, so I don't get that one. And we've discussed NCSU and how it was kind of a joke for them to get a bid last year.

But yeah, we probably should win a few of these Q1 games between now and the end of the year. I also still think UVA or UF could end up being Q1, which would be a nice little bonus to whatever else we can do over the next few weeks.
 
DeacsATS said:
'23 NCSU - 1-6 in Q1; NET#45 (15-2 home / 4-6 road)
'21 Syracuse - 1-7 in Q1; NET#40 (13-1 home / 2-7 road)
'21 Drake - 1-2 in Q1; NET#45 (12-1 home / 9-2 road)
'19 Nevada - 1-1 in Q1; NET#23 (15-0 home / 9-3 road)

As always, there is context.

Nevada just didn't play many Q1 games, but their NET was top 25 the entire season. Drake was similar... And that was a weird COVID year. Syracuse kind of sucked, so I don't get that one. And we've discussed NCSU and how it was kind of a joke for them to get a bid last year.

But yeah, we probably should win a few of these Q1 games between now and the end of the year. I also still think UVA or UF could end up being Q1, which would be a nice little bonus to whatever else we can do over the next few weeks.
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We may end up with 1 Q1 win vs UVA no matter what. Win the next one and it's obv Q1. Lose and our first win may jump to Q1. #METRICS
 
TheIshThatSaved WakeForest said:
I wouldn’t count Clemson in any of this. They aren’t going to be top 30, especially after we beat the hell out of them on senior night.
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Yeah if we win that game, there's a low possibility that Clem ends up top 30. Of course if we lose it'll be a Q1 loss more likely.
 
Just a reminder that our GaTech win has exactly the same value as beating consensus top 20 South Carolina at home would in the eyes of the quad system. Both just noted as "not quad 1". If we could just talk UC Irvine into letting us go play them and their single quad1&2 wins combined though, we'd get our miraculous Quad 1 win we apparently need so badly to be considered one of the worst seeds in the tournament.

Still amazed by how many announcers and coaches don't seem to know the components of the net. And that leads to fans in threads like this still arguing over the 10 point scoring margin cap as if it still exists.
 
When’s the last time all 4 Tobacco Road teams made the tournament
 
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