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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

13 wins looks very safe to me as long as we beat ND and GT. Any other combination of four wins should be enough. 12 could be OK as well, though would be close.

I don’t think lack of Q1 wins will be an issue given that we would check all these other boxes
  • no Q3/Q4 losses
  • good metrics
  • three games over .500 conference record
  • Finish top-5 in the league

I looked at the bubble teams that didn’t make it last season (Rutgers, Okie State, UNC, Clemson) and none of them checked all these. It would be a better resume than State had last season, and they were well in the field. The only negative you could point to would be lack of Q1 wins. And I’m not sure there is an example of any team that was kept out for only that reason. We also very well may have 3-4 Q1 wins by the end of the season anyways.
 
PaddyWF said:
13 wins looks very safe to me as long as we beat ND and GT. Any other combination of four wins should be enough. 12 could be OK as well, though would be close.

I don’t think lack of Q1 wins will be an issue given that we would check all these other boxes
  • no Q3/Q4 losses
  • good metrics
  • three games over .500 conference record
  • Finish top-5 in the league

I looked at the bubble teams that didn’t make it last season (Rutgers, Okie State, UNC, Clemson) and none of them checked all these. It would be a better resume than State had last season, and they were well in the field. The only negative you could point to would be lack of Q1 wins. And I’m not sure there is an example of any team that was kept out for only that reason. We also very well may have 3-4 Q1 wins by the end of the season anyways.
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Did you miss the 2021-2022 season?
 
WRS said:
Did you miss the 2021-2022 season?
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There are quite a few differences. We had 2 Q3/Q4 losses and an incredibly weak schedule. And slightly worse metrics.

The ACC was also slightly weaker that season.
 
PaddyWF said:
There are quite a few differences. We had 2 Q3/Q4 losses and an incredibly weak schedule. And slightly worse metrics.

The ACC was also slightly weaker that season.
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It’s far too small of a sample size to seriously predict our odds of making the tournament this season based on only our recent seasons. I made a post a month ago examining the recent tournament resumes of the whole conference and even that was too small of a sample.
 
Our current SOS isn’t super relevant absent the context of the competing teams SOS’s. We are going to be judged against all the teams with similar resumes to ours, it won’t matter at all that we have a better resume than we did 2 years ago.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
It’s far too small of a sample size to seriously predict our odds of making the tournament this season based on only our recent seasons. I made a post a month ago examining the recent tournament resumes of the whole conference and even that was too small of a sample.
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Sure. I have just looked at different bubble teams that have/haven not made it recently. And I couldn’t find one that matches what our resume would be at 13-7 with wins over ND and GT.

If anyone can find a P5 team with top ~30ish metrics, no Q3/Q4 losses, over .500 in conference, and top-five in their league that didn’t get a bid, I’d love to see it. I’m not aware of one, though I know the quad stuff is fairly new.

The committee can do whatever it wants, so if they wanted to find a reason to leave us out with they resume, they could.
 
PaddyWF said:
There are quite a few differences. We had 2 Q3/Q4 losses and an incredibly weak schedule. And slightly worse metrics.

The ACC was also slightly weaker that season.
Click to expand...

That team was also 3-5 in Q1 games and we are currently 0-3. You’re saying that if we finish 6-3 with losses to Duke x2 and @UVA you’re absolutely confident we make it? I just don’t see it. We might still make it but I’m certainly not counting it as a lock especially with zero statement wins.
 
You can pretty safely assume that most of those outcomes will correlate with each other, better record/better ACC Finish/better NET; etc. I think if we win 13 ACC games, finish 3rd-4th and win an ACC tournament game then we are safely in. I think if we win 12, finish 4th-6th, get bounced in round 1, we will be sweating it out on the bubble. We have a small margin for error IMO.
 
PaddyWF said:
Sure. I have just looked at different bubble teams that have/haven not made it recently. And I couldn’t find one that matches what our resume would be at 13-7 with wins over ND and GT.

If anyone can find a P5 team with top ~30ish metrics, no Q3/Q4 losses, over .500 in conference, and top-five in their league that didn’t get a bid, I’d love to see it. I’m not aware of one, though I know the quad stuff is fairly new.

The committee can do whatever it wants, so if they wanted to find a reason to leave us out with they resume, they could.
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Closest thing I can find in a quick search is 2019 Clemson, who did not get a bid. They were 35 in NET with a 19-13 (9-9 ACC) record. No Q3/Q4 losses, 1-10 Q1, 6-3 Q2.

Wake is currently 33 in NET with a 15-7 (7-4 ACC) record, no Q3/Q4 losses, 0-3 in Q1, 6-4 Q2. There is absolutely a path for Wake to be left without a bid if they don't get at least 2 Q1 wins. I don't think the fact that they are over .500 in conference or top-five in the league really means that much to the committee.

Let's just win in Cameron on Monday so that we don't have to think like this anymore.
 
WRS said:
That team was also 3-5 in Q1 games and we are currently 0-3. You’re saying that if we finish 6-3 with losses to Duke x2 and @UVA you’re absolutely confident we make it? I just don’t see it. We might still make it but I’m certainly not counting it as a lock especially with zero statement wins.
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2022 WF had 1 Q1 win on Selection Sunday. UVA and UNC climbed into Q1 territory after the fact.

WF has at least 4 opportunities for Q1 wins, currently 5 (Clemson is back in the Top 30 in NET), will be six if we earn the double bye and the ACC's 5 seed wins, will be 7 if we win that game. Plenty of opportunities.
 
thatguy2016 said:
2022 WF had 1 Q1 win on Selection Sunday. UVA and UNC climbed into Q1 territory after the fact.

WF has at least 4 opportunities for Q1 wins, currently 5 (Clemson is back in the Top 30 in NET), will be six if we earn the double bye and the ACC's 5 seed wins, will be 7 if we win that game. Plenty of opportunities.
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Agree we will have plenty of opportunities. If we beat Duke once I’ll feel pretty good. If we manage to get 1/2 against Duke and win at Virginia then I’ll feel really good.
 
thatguy2016 said:
2022 WF had 1 Q1 win on Selection Sunday. UVA and UNC climbed into Q1 territory after the fact.

WF has at least 4 opportunities for Q1 wins, currently 5 (Clemson is back in the Top 30 in NET), will be six if we earn the double bye and the ACC's 5 seed wins, will be 7 if we win that game. Plenty of opportunities.
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The 5 seed could very well be FSU, which wouldn’t be a Q1 on a neutral floor
 
TheIshThatSaved WakeForest said:
The 5 seed could very well be FSU, which wouldn’t be a Q1 on a neutral floor
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Could be. I think Clemson completes the sweep at home and gets the leg up there.

Winning at UVA would be nice, but a win in Cassell gets us one Q1, and it's very possible we backdoor into a Q1 win over UVA from the Joel.
 
For whatever it’s worth, on Bracket Matrix 8 out of 94 brackets currently have us in the field.
 
PaddyWF said:
13 wins looks very safe to me as long as we beat ND and GT. Any other combination of four wins should be enough. 12 could be OK as well, though would be close.

I don’t think lack of Q1 wins will be an issue given that we would check all these other boxes
  • no Q3/Q4 losses
  • good metrics
  • three games over .500 conference record
  • Finish top-5 in the league

I looked at the bubble teams that didn’t make it last season (Rutgers, Okie State, UNC, Clemson) and none of them checked all these. It would be a better resume than State had last season, and they were well in the field. The only negative you could point to would be lack of Q1 wins. And I’m not sure there is an example of any team that was kept out for only that reason. We also very well may have 3-4 Q1 wins by the end of the season anyways.
Click to expand...
You're thinking exactly aligns with mine
 
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