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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

I kind of started this hot take with the intentions of claiming Sr year Keller would be as productive as Sophomore year JJ. Then I just doubled down that he'd be a poor man's JJ. But I know that's pretty silly
 
Only North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami are ahead of us right now in NET.

Duke and Clemson are beatable at home. I think UNC is very good and that will be a tall task in Chapel Hill. But Forbes' teams have consistently played well against the goats.

Pitt, Virginia and State all have issues. 4-2 against them would be nice, 5 wins or better would be fantastic.

I am honestly most worried about these landmines: Louisville at home, ND away, GT at home.
 
PaddyWF said:
Only North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami are ahead of us right now in NET.

Duke and Clemson are beatable at home. I think UNC is very good and that will be a tall task in Chapel Hill. But Forbes' teams have consistently played well against the goats.

Pitt, Virginia and State all have issues. 4-2 against them would be nice, 5 wins or better would be fantastic.

I am honestly most worried about these landmines: Louisville at home, ND away, GT at home.
Click to expand...
I don't get Louisville at home - or on the road for that matter. UVA handled them and is losing to every other team by double digits. Louvul is truly atrocious. But GT is up and down and can be dangerous, and ND is starting to play a bit better, so I get those 2. And yeah, I'd take a split with State right about now, and I can see sweeping Pitt and UVA.
 
Complacent Deac said:
Beating Tony Bennett is kind of like beating Larranaga.

Expect a close game. Cleveland's jumper spun out, or we'd all be lamenting losing at home to Larranaga, without his best guy, Wooga.

It's not good for the Blood Pressure.
Click to expand...

I would normally agree on uva. But they've been getting smoked by average to poor teams. They aren't the typical uva IMHO. I suppose it's a talent issue because Bennett can coach
 
cville deac said:
I don't get Louisville at home - or on the road for that matter. UVA handled them and is losing to every other team by double digits. Louvul is truly atrocious. But GT is up and down and can be dangerous, and ND is starting to play a bit better, so I get those 2. And yeah, I'd take a split with State right about now, and I can see sweeping Pitt and UVA.
Click to expand...
We should beat Louisville/GT/ND easily. My point is a loss to any of them would be hard to recover from when you look at resumes at the end of the season. That is not the case when playing any other ACC team, except maybe FSU at home which we don't have on the schedule this season.

I think a loss against any of those teams hurts more than a Q1 win helps.
 
There will be one or two we lose we think we shouldn't. And one or two we win we think we wouldn't. It's the nature of sports. Especially at the college level
 
Haros said:
What a difference 8 days makes.

Headed into VT game, we had a NET of 78, with only a single Q2 win to go with 1 bad loss.

Fast forward: Net up 31 spots to 47. 1 Q1 and 3 Q2 wins. And no bad losses.
Click to expand...
Correct me if I'm wrong, because I'm trying to reverse-engineer this, but per Warren Nolan, our 2022 Q1 record was 3-5 and Q2 was 4-4. I believe two of those Q1 wins moved up from Q2 after Selection Sunday, while two of the Q2 wins we picked up in the NIT. That means that as of SS, our resume included:

Q1 wins- 1 (@VPI)
Q2 wins- 4 (@UVA, vs. UNC, @FSU, vs. ND)

That's.... not real good. So far this year, we have:

Q1 wins- 1 (@ #74 BC, could easily fall to Q2)
Q2 wins- 3 (vs. #48 UF, vs. #66 VPI, vs. #41 UM)

We have two more opportunities for Q2 wins coming up this week, with @ #118 FSU and vs. #55 UVA. Beyond that, there should be many more opportunities for pick-ups than we had in 2022.

Q1- @ #64 NCSU, @ #9 UNC, @ #52 Pitt, @ #18 dook, @ #55 UVA, vs. #18 dook, @ #66 VPI, vs. #24 Clem
Q2- vs. #75 Cuse, @ #125 GT, vs #64 NCSU, vs #52 Pitt

It seems to me the quadrants aren't going to be a big deal this year. If we win enough games to be in the discussion, we're going to have a respectable number of Q1 and Q2 wins. If current rankings hold, 21 of our games will be Q1 or Q2, vs. only 13 two years ago.

For reference, here are the quadrants:
  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
 
OldGoldBeard said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, because I'm trying to reverse-engineer this, but per Warren Nolan, our 2022 Q1 record was 3-5 and Q2 was 4-4. I believe two of those Q1 wins moved up from Q2 after Selection Sunday, while two of the Q2 wins we picked up in the NIT. That means that as of SS, our resume included:

Q1 wins- 1 (@VPI)
Q2 wins- 4 (@UVA, vs. UNC, @FSU, vs. ND)

That's.... not real good. So far this year, we have:

Q1 wins- 1 (@ #74 BC, could easily fall to Q2)
Q2 wins- 3 (vs. #48 UF, vs. #66 VPI, vs. #41 UM)

We have two more opportunities for Q2 wins coming up this week, with @ #118 FSU and vs. #55 UVA. Beyond that, there should be many more opportunities for pick-ups than we had in 2022.

Q1- @ #64 NCSU, @ #9 UNC, @ #52 Pitt, @ #18 dook, @ #55 UVA, vs. #18 dook, @ #66 VPI, vs. #24 Clem
Q2- vs. #75 Cuse, @ #125 GT, vs #64 NCSU, vs #52 Pitt

It seems to me the quadrants aren't going to be a big deal this year. If we win enough games to be in the discussion, we're going to have a respectable number of Q1 and Q2 wins. If current rankings hold, 21 of our games will be Q1 or Q2, vs. only 13 two years ago.

For reference, here are the quadrants:
  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Click to expand...
Didn’t we also have 10 Q4 wins that year? That hurts more than having a couple more Q1/Q2 losses.
 
OldGoldBeard said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, because I'm trying to reverse-engineer this, but per Warren Nolan, our 2022 Q1 record was 3-5 and Q2 was 4-4. I believe two of those Q1 wins moved up from Q2 after Selection Sunday, while two of the Q2 wins we picked up in the NIT. That means that as of SS, our resume included:

Q1 wins- 1 (@VPI)
Q2 wins- 4 (@UVA, vs. UNC, @FSU, vs. ND)

That's.... not real good. So far this year, we have:

Q1 wins- 1 (@ #74 BC, could easily fall to Q2)
Q2 wins- 3 (vs. #48 UF, vs. #66 VPI, vs. #41 UM)

We have two more opportunities for Q2 wins coming up this week, with @ #118 FSU and vs. #55 UVA. Beyond that, there should be many more opportunities for pick-ups than we had in 2022.

Q1- @ #64 NCSU, @ #9 UNC, @ #52 Pitt, @ #18 dook, @ #55 UVA, vs. #18 dook, @ #66 VPI, vs. #24 Clem
Q2- vs. #75 Cuse, @ #125 GT, vs #64 NCSU, vs #52 Pitt

It seems to me the quadrants aren't going to be a big deal this year. If we win enough games to be in the discussion, we're going to have a respectable number of Q1 and Q2 wins. If current rankings hold, 21 of our games will be Q1 or Q2, vs. only 13 two years ago.

For reference, here are the quadrants:
  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Click to expand...
You’re spot on. And that set of opportunities is what would differentiate say a 13-7 ACC record this year from 2 years ago.

Put me down for 14-6 and a top 30 NET/KP to remove most any doubts.
 
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OldGoldBeard said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, because I'm trying to reverse-engineer this, but per Warren Nolan, our 2022 Q1 record was 3-5 and Q2 was 4-4. I believe two of those Q1 wins moved up from Q2 after Selection Sunday, while two of the Q2 wins we picked up in the NIT. That means that as of SS, our resume included:

Q1 wins- 1 (@VPI)
Q2 wins- 4 (@UVA, vs. UNC, @FSU, vs. ND)

That's.... not real good. So far this year, we have:

Q1 wins- 1 (@ #74 BC, could easily fall to Q2)
Q2 wins- 3 (vs. #48 UF, vs. #66 VPI, vs. #41 UM)

We have two more opportunities for Q2 wins coming up this week, with @ #118 FSU and vs. #55 UVA. Beyond that, there should be many more opportunities for pick-ups than we had in 2022.

Q1- @ #64 NCSU, @ #9 UNC, @ #52 Pitt, @ #18 dook, @ #55 UVA, vs. #18 dook, @ #66 VPI, vs. #24 Clem
Q2- vs. #75 Cuse, @ #125 GT, vs #64 NCSU, vs #52 Pitt

It seems to me the quadrants aren't going to be a big deal this year. If we win enough games to be in the discussion, we're going to have a respectable number of Q1 and Q2 wins. If current rankings hold, 21 of our games will be Q1 or Q2, vs. only 13 two years ago.

For reference, here are the quadrants:
  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Click to expand...
Just for the hell of it, I decided to look at our ACC schedule from 2004 when we went 9-7 in conference and still got a 4 seed. Obviously, NET wasn't around, so I used KP as a proxy.

Q1: @ #11 UNC (W), @ #1 dook (L), vs. #8 GT (L), @ #26 FSU (L), vs. #22 UMD (W), @ #9 NCSU (L), vs. #11 UNC (L), vs. #1 dook (W), @ #8 GT (W), vs. #26 FSU (W), @ #22 UMD (W), @ #66 UVA (L), vs. #9 NCSU (L), vs. #22 UMD (L--ACCT)
Q2: vs. #66 UVA (W), @ #107 Clem (W)
Q3: vs. #107 Clem (W)

How's that for a gauntlet? We also played Q1 OOC games against #33 Memphis (neutral- W), @ #17 Texas (L), and vs. #16 Cincy (W).
 
OldGoldBeard said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, because I'm trying to reverse-engineer this, but per Warren Nolan, our 2022 Q1 record was 3-5 and Q2 was 4-4. I believe two of those Q1 wins moved up from Q2 after Selection Sunday, while two of the Q2 wins we picked up in the NIT. That means that as of SS, our resume included:

Q1 wins- 1 (@VPI)
Q2 wins- 4 (@UVA, vs. UNC, @FSU, vs. ND)

That's.... not real good. So far this year, we have:

Q1 wins- 1 (@ #74 BC, could easily fall to Q2)
Q2 wins- 3 (vs. #48 UF, vs. #66 VPI, vs. #41 UM)

We have two more opportunities for Q2 wins coming up this week, with @ #118 FSU and vs. #55 UVA. Beyond that, there should be many more opportunities for pick-ups than we had in 2022.

Q1- @ #64 NCSU, @ #9 UNC, @ #52 Pitt, @ #18 dook, @ #55 UVA, vs. #18 dook, @ #66 VPI, vs. #24 Clem
Q2- vs. #75 Cuse, @ #125 GT, vs #64 NCSU, vs #52 Pitt

It seems to me the quadrants aren't going to be a big deal this year. If we win enough games to be in the discussion, we're going to have a respectable number of Q1 and Q2 wins. If current rankings hold, 21 of our games will be Q1 or Q2, vs. only 13 two years ago.

For reference, here are the quadrants:
  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Click to expand...
The '22 team also had two Q3/Q4 losses, Louisville and BC. And five more games against Q3/Q4 teams then we are projected to this season.

Louisville really hurt us because they were in the mid-50s in Torvik when they beat WF which started a three-game win streak for them, then proceeded to tumble to awfulness by the end of the season. That is pretty hard to do once conference play starts, considering they were 10-4 (4-0) at one point.

BC was just inexcusable on a neutral floor.

Forbes also mentioned that wins against UNC and Virginia were just outside Q1 designation on selection sunday, which looks to be correct.
 
Did we receive top 25 votes in the AP/Coaches poll at any point during the Manning first four season? Or would this season be the first time in ~14 years we received votes?
 
I doubt this is the announcement but this was my first thought sfter reading the post by Mit Shah. Sufficient NIL money to keep this team together for 2024-25.
 
OldGoldBeard said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, because I'm trying to reverse-engineer this, but per Warren Nolan, our 2022 Q1 record was 3-5 and Q2 was 4-4. I believe two of those Q1 wins moved up from Q2 after Selection Sunday, while two of the Q2 wins we picked up in the NIT. That means that as of SS, our resume included:

Q1 wins- 1 (@VPI)
Q2 wins- 4 (@UVA, vs. UNC, @FSU, vs. ND)

That's.... not real good. So far this year, we have:

Q1 wins- 1 (@ #74 BC, could easily fall to Q2)
Q2 wins- 3 (vs. #48 UF, vs. #66 VPI, vs. #41 UM)

We have two more opportunities for Q2 wins coming up this week, with @ #118 FSU and vs. #55 UVA. Beyond that, there should be many more opportunities for pick-ups than we had in 2022.

Q1- @ #64 NCSU, @ #9 UNC, @ #52 Pitt, @ #18 dook, @ #55 UVA, vs. #18 dook, @ #66 VPI, vs. #24 Clem
Q2- vs. #75 Cuse, @ #125 GT, vs #64 NCSU, vs #52 Pitt

It seems to me the quadrants aren't going to be a big deal this year. If we win enough games to be in the discussion, we're going to have a respectable number of Q1 and Q2 wins. If current rankings hold, 21 of our games will be Q1 or Q2, vs. only 13 two years ago.

For reference, here are the quadrants:
  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Click to expand...

yes, and I'll add that the 2022 VPI Q1 win only became a Q1 win when they went on a run to win the ACC tournament - so as the committee was originally meeting, we had zero Q1 wins

one day, WF should go on a run to win the ACC tournament. This would be a good year to do it. (when Childress put the team on his back, he broke a 33-year drought. If we win this year, the drought will have been 28 years)
 
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