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Can the Deacs Cover?

Probably should ask the ultimate sports king of all knowledge, greater than everyone else on this board combined................. your brother.
 
ThinkingWithMyDeac said:
Probably should ask the ultimate sports king of all knowledge, greater than everyone else on this board combined................. your brother.
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Glad you asked spazz boy, happy to help.

I'd stay away. I'm tempted to give us the Clawson bump, especially since ULM has lost a lot of offensive talent from last year. But this Wake team is such a young and uncertain bunch, trying to learn new schemes on both sides of the ball, that I'd be afraid to pick them to win any road game.

If you want to throw $5-10 on the Deacs, sure, but if its anything more than that I'd stay away.
 
I don't know why anyone would bet on this game other than just to toss money up into the wind. Cumberland and Doofus have seen 15 practices or so and still have absolutely no idea how we will look against other teams. The team is young, the staff is new....I mean I don't know how you can say either way what will happen other than just an educated guess.
 
This line opened over the Summer at 6.5 or 7. With a flood of action on ULM, the Warhawks are now favored by 1.5. While 1st week lines fluctuate more than any other week, that is a huge line change absent massive suspensions and/or injuries. One handicapping technique is bet against any line move over 4 points as the line-makers typically hold the edge over public money (IOW, the public is more often wrong when it backs one side). This line has moved 8+ points, which gives WF a lot value.

With that said, how can anyone confidently predict what WF is going to do on offense? After suffering through a miserable season on offense last year, WF is starting a true frosh at QB, a converted WR at RB, and a RS frosh at TE, and no WR/SE with a strong track record. The "strength" on offense is an OL, which has under-performed for years, and apparently was called for a ton of penalties during fall scrimmages.

Who would be shocked if John Wolford struggled in his first start? OTOH, who would be shocked if Clawson did not have a few tricks up his sleeve, and WF busted some big plays with talent that frankly is above what ULM can field? This game is full of great unknowns, and anyone claiming that this game is a lock either way has no clue.

If I had to play it, I would take WF because of the line value, but no result would shock me. Pass.
 
Pilchard said:
This line opened over the Summer at 6.5 or 7. With a flood of action on ULM, the Warhawks are now favored by 1.5. While 1st week lines fluctuate more than any other week, that is a huge line change absent massive suspensions and/or injuries. One handicapping technique is bet against any line move over 4 points as the line-makers typically hold the edge over public money (IOW, the public is more often wrong when it backs one side). This line has moved 8+ points, which gives WF a lot value.

With that said, how can anyone confidently predict what WF is going to do on offense? After suffering through a miserable season on offense last year, WF is starting a true frosh at QB, a converted WR at RB, and a RS frosh at TE, and no WR/SE with a strong track record. The "strength" on offense is an OL, which has under-performed for years, and apparently was called for a ton of penalties during fall scrimmages.

Who would be shocked if John Wolford struggled in his first start? OTOH, who would be shocked if Clawson did not have a few tricks up his sleeve, and WF busted some big plays with talent that frankly is above what ULM can field? This game is full of great unknowns, and anyone claiming that this game is lock has no clue.

If I had to play it, I would take WF because of the line value, but no result would shock me. Pass.
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As sad as it sounds, I don't think that is true.
 
Pilchard said:
Even for Grobe's worst class, WF recruited at a level above ULM.
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Give me one player we will trot out there tomorrow night that you feel is appreciably above what ULM will put out there? KJ comes to my mind, other than that???? Comparing depth charts, weights and heights are comparable, hopefully we have a speed edge, but it sure didn't show on the field against them last year. Don't get me wrong, I think we can win, but I don't think it's going to be because of over-talenting them.
 
You'll see the best matchups with their WR group against our DBs I think. Our secondary is pretty good though. I'd put it up against the best players on ULM.
 
ULM's defense returns 9 starters. I know it was Lobo's offense, but that defense shut our senior-laden offense down for the majority of the game last year. I think it's a little bullish to say our offensive talent is above what ULM can field.
 
TownieDeac said:
You'll see the best matchups with their WR group against our DBs I think. Our secondary is pretty good though. I'd put it up against the best players on ULM.
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I think our secondary can be good provided we get a semblance of a consistent pass rush. We've got 2 really good corners, but they can't keep guys covered if the opposing QB has time to eat a sandwich back there.
 
Someone compared this to the first game of the Grobe era, an upset win over heavily favored ECU. I tend to agree. ULM really doesn't know how to prepare for us. I can see us squeaking out a win.
 
Their 3-3-5 defense could pose some matchup issues. I seem to recall that teams have some success running the ball against this style in general but don't 100% remember.
 
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